Nigeria has retained the unenviable position of having the largest number of people facing crisis-level or worse food insecurity in Africa, with an estimated 36.3 million people affected, according to the July 2026 Food Security Monitor published by the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA).

The report, which tracks food security, commodity prices, agricultural conditions and policy developments across 17 African countries, said Nigeria accounted for the highest absolute number of people experiencing IPC/CH Phase 3 or worse food insecurity.

However, Nigeria’s proportion of affected people, at 16.7 per cent of the population, was significantly lower than countries such as South Sudan, where 55 per cent of the population was classified as food insecure at crisis level or worse.
South Sudan had 7.8 million people affected, followed by Kenya with 4.1 million, Malawi with four million and Mozambique with 3.5 million.

The AGRA report said the overall food insecurity situation across the countries monitored remained largely unchanged from June, with most countries recording little month-on-month movement.

For Nigeria, the situation remains particularly concerning because food insecurity is being compounded by insecurity, displacement, weak purchasing power and disruptions to agricultural production and market access.

According to the report, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) conditions persist in conflict-affected areas of Nigeria and other parts of West Africa, where insecurity continues to disrupt farming, trade, livelihoods and humanitarian operations.

Food prices show mixed signals
Despite the scale of Nigeria’s food insecurity challenge, the report identified signs of easing in some domestic food markets.
Maize prices in Nigeria declined 4.1 per cent month-on-month in July, while rice prices edged down by 0.3 per cent.
However, millet prices increased 2.8 per cent during the month to N465.27 per kilogramme, while sorghum prices climbed 5.8 per cent to N412.01/kg.

The report noted that the recent increases in some commodities reflected seasonal tightening of supplies.
On a longer-term basis, however, several Nigerian staple prices remained below their levels of a year earlier. Maize prices were 22.5 per cent lower year-on-year, millet was down 13.6 per cent, while sorghum was 9.2 per cent lower.
Milled rice was an exception, remaining 8.3 per cent higher than a year earlier, despite the marginal monthly decline.
The combination of lower prices for some staples and persistent food insecurity highlights the importance of purchasing power, rather than food availability alone, in determining household food access.

AGRA warned that the relatively favourable food-price trends could come under pressure from rising production costs and climate risks.
The report said West Africa was generally experiencing favourable conditions for the 2026/27 agricultural season, but warned that rising fuel and fertiliser prices could increase production costs and discourage input use.

It also identified conflict-related disruptions as a major downside risk to food production and food distribution.
More broadly, AGRA warned that an expected strong El Niño event could create significant risks for African agriculture through droughts, floods, crop losses and economic disruption.

The report cited forecasts indicating an 81 per cent probability of a very strong El Niño developing between October and December 2026, with a 97 per cent probability that El Niño conditions would persist through April 2027.
The African Development Bank estimates that severe El Niño impacts could reduce GDP in heavily affected African countries by 1–2 per cent, with economic losses potentially reaching $10 billion–$20 billion through crop failures, livestock losses, infrastructure damage, higher food prices and increased migration.

The developments in Nigeria are taking place against a challenging global food market.

AGRA said the FAO Food Price Index increased 0.6 per cent month-on-month and one per cent year-on-year in July, driven by higher cereal, sugar and vegetable oil prices.
The International Grains Council Grains and Oilseeds Index also rose 6 per cent from June and 11.6 per cent year-on-year, reflecting tighter supplies and stronger demand.

More recent FAO data reported by Reuters showed that global food prices rose in July to their highest level in more than three years, with adverse weather and geopolitical tensions adding pressure to agricultural markets.

For Nigeria, AGRA’s findings suggest that although improved supplies are helping moderate prices for some staples, food insecurity remains structurally high, particularly among households affected by insecurity, displacement, low incomes and limited access to livelihoods.

The report therefore points to a delicate outlook for the country’s food economy: lower prices in some commodity markets offer temporary relief, but weak household purchasing power, insecurity, input costs and climate risks could quickly reverse those gains.