The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the opposition Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) have begun positioning for the 2027 presidential contest, with developments in Plateau State offering an early glimpse into the political strategies that could shape the race, LEO SOBECHI reports.

Beyond political party platforms, strategic planning, alliances and campaign messaging are increasingly defining the emerging contest. Although the formal campaign season has commenced, the moves that preceded it suggest that Nigerians could be witnessing a different kind of political engagement, particularly as President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, a veteran of several campaign battles, seeks to consolidate his position ahead of the 2027 election.

The African Democratic Congress (ADC), Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), Social Democratic Party (SDP), Allied Peoples Movement (APM) and Peoples Redemption Party (PRP) have emerged among the platforms attracting attention, particularly because of the political figures associated with them.

However, developments in Plateau State indicate that the presidential contest may extend beyond national rallies and policy declarations to intense efforts by the major parties to control influential political structures and voting blocs.

Fight for Plateau
By virtue of its voting population and political significance in the North-Central, Plateau State remains an important battleground for presidential contenders seeking to build a broad national coalition.

The state has historically produced competitive elections, while its religious and ethnic diversity gives its political choices wider significance. Its position within the Middle Belt also makes it important to calculations involving alliances between the northern and southern political blocs.

Lagos, Rivers, Kano, Bauchi and Imo have traditionally occupied important positions in presidential calculations because of their voting strength and political relevance. Plateau, however, is regarded by political actors as particularly significant because of its relatively strong voting blocs and its influence within the Middle Belt.

Sources close to the Presidency said the strategic importance of the state informed moves to strengthen the APC’s political structure following the party’s poor performance in the 2023 elections.

It was gathered that President Tinubu subsequently encouraged a five-member team of prominent political actors to pay closer attention to the party’s fortunes in Plateau, amid concerns that disagreements among some of its leading figures were affecting the party’s electoral projection.

The sources said the intervention followed concerns over the political activities of the National Chairman of APC, Prof. Nentawe Yilwatda and Senator Simon Bako Lalong, whose individual political calculations were said to be affecting efforts to build a cohesive APC structure in the state.

Vice President Kashim Shettima has also maintained an interest in developments in Plateau. His family connections in the state have given him an additional reason to keep a close watch on political developments there.

The APC’s difficulties in Plateau became particularly pronounced during the 2023 general elections, when the party lost the governorship and suffered setbacks in several other contests.

Party leaders have since been seeking to rebuild its structure ahead of 2027, but the process has also exposed old rivalries among its leading stakeholders.

The involvement of Yusuf Adamu Gagdi, a prominent federal lawmaker who has chaired several investigative panels in the House of Representatives, was part of the party’s efforts to strengthen its political structure. However, his legislative responsibilities and constituency demands have limited the extent to which he can personally oversee all party activities in the state.

Jang, Muftwang and the opposition
Former governor Jonah Jang remains one of the influential political figures in Plateau, despite the divisions that have characterised the PDP and wider opposition politics in the state.

His relationship with Governor Caleb Muftwang has attracted considerable attention, particularly following Muftwang’s movement from the PDP to the APC.

Jang’s political engagements have consequently generated competing interpretations among stakeholders. While some APC figures see his continued influence as useful to the party, others remain suspicious of his relationship with opposition actors and the possibility that he could influence the direction of the 2027 contest.

The former governor’s 80th birthday celebration, hosted by the Plateau State Government, was particularly significant because of the political figures that attended and the renewed attention it brought to his relationship with the incumbent governor.

Some sources also linked Jang to behind-the-scenes consultations surrounding Muftwang’s political movement, although such claims remain part of the competing narratives within Plateau politics.

What is clear, however, is that attempts to position Jang as an influential political intermediary have revived old political disagreements.

His critics within the opposition accuse him of pursuing personal political interests, while his supporters argue that he remains one of the state’s most experienced political actors and is entitled to participate in negotiations concerning the future of Plateau politics.

The controversy intensified following a meeting between Jang and NDC presidential figure Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso during a birthday visit to the former governor at his Abuja residence.

Kwankwaso said the visit was to celebrate Jang’s birthday and join in the commemoration of the launch of his book. But in Plateau, the meeting was interpreted through the prism of the emerging 2027 contest.

APC stakeholders saw the encounter as evidence that the opposition was attempting to strengthen its relationship with influential figures in the state.

Some political actors subsequently raised concerns over the possibility of Jang becoming an important intermediary between opposition groups and political interests in Plateau.

The interpretation gained further attention because, around the same period, Kano NDC gubernatorial candidate Aminu Abdulsalam Gwarzo visited Plateau and engaged members of the Kwankwasiyya Movement and NDC supporters.

In a message inviting supporters to the engagement, the Plateau State Kwankwasiyya leadership urged members to gather at Bauchi Junction to receive Gwarzo, describing the visit as an opportunity to strengthen unity, friendship, mutual understanding and cooperation among members of the movement, the NDC and residents of Plateau.

For APC leaders, however, the visit represented a more deliberate attempt by the opposition to build political structures in the state ahead of 2027.

An APC stakeholder expressed concern over the relationship between Muftwang and Jang, arguing that the party should not allow internal disagreements to create opportunities for opposition parties.

The stakeholder alleged that while some APC leaders believed Jang was helping to prevent the emergence of a strong opposition candidate in Plateau, the former governor was also exploring his own political interests.

The claims have not been independently established, but they illustrate the degree of suspicion surrounding the alliances being formed ahead of the elections.

Opposition’s wider calculation
The political manoeuvring in Plateau is taking place against the backdrop of broader efforts by opposition figures to establish alliances across the country.

Another significant development was a meeting between Senator Henry Seriake Dickson and former leaders of the defunct Alliance for Democracy (AD) in Abuja.

The meeting was interpreted by political observers as part of continuing consultations aimed at strengthening the opposition’s reach, particularly in the South West.

Among those who attended were former AD leaders with experience as state party officials and governorship candidates. Their involvement is significant because the NDC, like other opposition platforms, faces the challenge of establishing structures beyond its traditional areas of influence.

For the opposition, the South West and Middle Belt are particularly important to any strategy aimed at challenging the APC’s national machinery.

The political calculations in Plateau must therefore be viewed against this wider national effort.

Earlier consultations with Middle Belt leaders also underscored the importance attached to the region. Chairman of the Middle Belt Forum, Prof Bitrus Porgu, was reported to have told opposition leaders that Plateau occupied an important position in the political calculations of the Middle Belt.

The state’s importance goes beyond the number of votes it can deliver. Its political choices often carry symbolic weight in a region where questions of inclusion, power rotation and religious balance remain significant components of national politics.

The NDC’s internal negotiations over its structure and candidates in Plateau have consequently become part of a broader national calculation.

The party must balance the interests of established political figures with the demands of emerging groups seeking greater influence. How it manages those competing interests could determine whether its growing visibility translates into actual electoral support.

The 2031 calculation
Although the immediate political objective remains the 2027 election, some of the current manoeuvring has inevitably sparked speculation about the political arrangements that could follow.

President Tinubu is seeking a second term, while opposition figures are positioning themselves for influence in the emerging political order.

Some political actors in the Middle Belt are already discussing what the post-Tinubu era could mean for the region and whether the political arrangements of 2027 could influence the 2031 succession battle.

Former Plateau State governor, Ambassador Fidelis Tapgun, said the Middle Belt supported the national mood for a two-term presidency in the South.

He argued that there was nothing inherently wrong with allowing an incumbent to complete two terms before a new political arrangement emerged, stressing that political actors should avoid the temptation to pursue quick fixes.

His position reflects one strand of thinking in the region, where political leaders are weighing immediate electoral interests against longer-term calculations about the rotation of power.

The emerging alliances have therefore raised questions about how figures such as Kwankwaso and other opposition leaders fit into the broader political equation.

The opposition could face a strategic choice: whether to concentrate entirely on defeating the incumbent in 2027 or to build a political coalition capable of surviving beyond the next presidential election.

For the APC, the challenge is equally significant. The party must consolidate its gains, resolve internal disagreements and prevent opposition groups from exploiting divisions among its stakeholders.

Plateau could provide an early test of that strategy.

The state has already become a meeting point for competing political interests. Former governors, serving politicians, opposition leaders and grassroots organisations are exploring relationships that could determine the state’s direction in 2027.

Yet political meetings alone will not determine the outcome. The real test will be whether the parties can convert elite alliances into durable structures capable of mobilising voters across Plateau’s diverse communities.

For the APC, the lesson from 2023 is that national power and political influence cannot automatically guarantee victory at the state level.

For the opposition, the challenge is to demonstrate that its alliances amount to more than elite negotiations and can translate into a credible grassroots campaign.

As the political parties prepare to take their campaigns to the electorate, the battle for Plateau is already providing a preview of the wider contest.

The game may have begun quietly, but the stakes are high. How APC and NDC manage their alliances, internal disagreements, and mobilisation efforts in Plateau could offer Nigerians an early indication of how the broader 2027 presidential contest will unfold.