By Izielen Agbon

Sir: On Wednesday, August 19, 2026, the Finance Minister and coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, declared that N15.8 trillion was saved from June 2023 to December 2025 from the removal of fuel subsidy or PMS price increase. The Finance Minister did not explain how he estimated these implicit fuel subsidy savings.

However, he attempted to give credence to his statistics by claiming that N5.4 trillion of the fuel subsidy savings went to the federal government, while N10.4 trillion was shared among state and local governments.

The total PMS consumption in Nigeria from June 2023 to December 2023 was 10.165 billion litres, according to Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) data. The total PMS consumption was 18.8158 billion litres in 2024 and 18.6526 billion in 2025. This gives a total PMS consumption volume of 47.6334 billion litres from June 2023 to December 2025.

This includes 8.414 billion litres of PMS supplied by Dangote Petroleum from September 2024 to December 2025. Assuming a fuel subsidy savings of N15.8 trillion and total PMS consumption of 47.6334 billion litres during this period, we will get a fuel subsidy savings of N331.7/litre. This estimate is far higher than the annual subsidy cost/litre from 2019 to 2022.

In 2019, fuel subsidy expenditure was N799.8 billion for 20.6 billion litres of imported PMS. This gave us a fuel subsidy cost of N38.8/litre. In 2020, N1.2 trillion was spent as fuel subsidy for 22.05 billion litres of imported PMS, leading to a fuel subsidy cost of N54/litre. In 2021, N1.43 trillion was spent as fuel subsidy on the importation of 22.5 billion litre, leading to a fuel subsidy cost of N63.6/litre. In 2022, N2.91 trillion was spent as fuel subsidy on the importation of 23.54 billion litres, leading to a fuel subsidy cost of N123.6/litre.

Now, the Finance Minister wants us to believe that an estimated imaginary fuel subsidy cost of N331.7/litre between June 2023 and December 2025 was saved because President Tinubu’s “subsidy is gone” in his inaugural speech. The N331.7/litre fuel subsidy savings does not add up.

The Finance Minister also claimed that the “fuel subsidy savings” was spent on wage adjustments, minimum wage increases, allowances for public servants, external debt servicing and strategic infrastructure.

These expenditure left no concrete positive impact whatsoever on the lives of Nigerian workers or the development of the Nigerian economy. We can show this by comparing the conditions in May 2023 to that in December 2025 using the 2023 dollar as a base. This will enable us to capture the total (inflationary and exchange rate) impact of the PMS price increase and naira devaluation policies.

Based on the U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics, $1 in May 2023 had the same purchasing power as $1.06 in December 2025, reflecting a cumulative inflation rate of roughly 5.7 per cent over that 31-month period.

The Naira USD exchange rate increased from ₦460.70 / $1 in May 2023 to N1455/$1 in December 2025. Based on a May 2023 dollar, the exchange rate was actually N1543/$1 in December 2025. The PMS price per litre at the pump increased from ₦238.11 ($0.52/litre) in May 2023 to ₦1,048.63 ($0.68/litre) in December 2025. We can now review the Finance Minister’s fuel subsidy savings expenditures claims based on the May 2023 dollar.

In May 2023, the national monthly minimum wage was N30,000 ($65.11). It was N70,000 ($45.37) in December 2025. This was a decrease in the real wages of Nigerian workers and the wage bill of the Nigerian ruling class. In May 2023, the year-on-year food inflation rate in Nigeria was 24.82 per cent according to the National Bureau of Statistics. The food inflation rate for May 2024 was 40.66 per cent on a year-on-year basis. In December 2025, food inflation in Nigeria stood at 10.84 per cent. The sharp statistical decline was due to a rebasing of the Consumer Price Index from a 2009 to a 2024 base year by the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Using the former 2009 base year, the food inflation rate for December 2025 was actually 44.16 per cent. We have lies, more lies and statistics to blur the inflationary hunger in our homes and streets. The reality faced by workers was increased costs for food, transportation, housing, education, health and security. More than 63 per cent of the Nigerian population (about 150 million people) lived below the poverty line in December 2025. Therefore, any claims of fuel subsidy savings spent on wage adjustments, minimum wage increases and allowances for public servants are lies and statistics.

In May 2023, the FAAC allocations (in May 2023 USD) to Akwa Ibom and Rivers States were N28.709 billion ($62.32 million) and N28.056 billion ($60.90 million) respectively. In December 2025, despite the increase nominal Naira allocations, the real value of FAAC allocations to Akwa Ibom and Rivers states had reduced to N42.9 billion ($27.80 million) and N54.70 billion ($35.45 million) respectively. The same decrease real allocation (in May 2023 USD) occurred for other states.

For instance, in May 2023, the FAAC allocations to Gombe and Ogun states were N4.946 billion ($10.74 million) and N5.084 billion ($11.04 million) respectively. In December 2025, despite the increase nominal Naira allocations, the real value of FAAC allocations to Gombe and Ogun states had reduced to N11.64 billion ($7.54 million) and N10.06 billion ($6.52 million) respectively.

Izielen Agbon can be reached via [email protected]