The planned expansion of Ethiopian Airlines’ operations in Nigeria has raised fresh concerns over the country’s inability to develop a strong international aviation hub.

Industry stakeholders told The Guardian that increased access for foreign carriers could deepen the challenges confronting indigenous airlines.

Ethiopian Airlines is expected to increase its Nigerian operations to 53 weekly flights from 43, including 21 weekly services to Lagos and 11 to Kano, and to commence four weekly flights between Addis Ababa and Port Harcourt from December 2026.

While the development has been welcomed in some quarters for its potential to improve connectivity, increase passenger choice and stimulate economic activities in the South-South region, aviation stakeholders have cautioned that it also exposes fundamental weaknesses in Nigeria’s aviation infrastructure.

They particularly expressed concern that the absence of seamless transit facilities and an effective hub-and-spoke system could work against the country’s airlines.

The Principal Managing Partner, Aeronexus Group, Gbenga Onitilo, said the Port Harcourt service was important to the airline and Nigeria because it would give travellers and businesses in the oil-rich South-South region direct access to Ethiopian Airlines’ extensive global network through Addis Ababa.

According to him, the development was not simply about Ethiopian Airlines adding another Nigerian destination, but about the carrier leveraging Nigeria’s large passenger market to strengthen its international network.

Onitilo, however, emphasised that the expansion of Ethiopian Airlines to Port Harcourt represented both an opportunity and a threat.

He explained that the immediate threat was the possibility that international passengers, particularly high-yield travellers, could increasingly choose foreign airlines with established global networks over Nigerian carriers.

He added: “But here is where the conversation becomes uncomfortable. Why is an Ethiopian airline building such a powerful connectivity proposition around Nigerian passengers while our own airlines are still largely fighting for point-to-point domestic traffic?

“Ethiopian is not simply selling seats between Nigeria and Ethiopia. It is selling a network. That is a completely different proposition. The passenger from Port Harcourt is not necessarily going to Addis Ababa because Ethiopia is the final destination. Addis is the bridge to the rest of the world. That network effect is where the real competitive advantage lies.”

Onitilo said Nigerian airlines could also position themselves to benefit from the development by becoming feeder carriers for international airlines, including Ethiopian Airlines.

Besides, Onitilo said Nigeria needed to adopt a more sophisticated aviation policy that would balance consumer choice and foreign competition with the development of indigenous airlines if the sector was to become competitive.

He insisted that the country could not respond by protecting domestic airlines from competition, stressing that such a move could eventually hurt passengers.

He added that Nigeria also needed to learn from Ethiopia’s deliberate use of aviation as economic infrastructure.

Also, the Managing Director, Ibom Air, George Uriesi, said Nigeria’s current situation was the consequence of years of inadequate strategic planning, while Ethiopian Airlines had consistently developed its network around the country’s market.

He pointed out that Nigerian authorities could not blame Ethiopian Airlines for taking advantage of opportunities created by Nigeria’s own aviation policies.

Uriesi agreed that developing a globally competitive Nigerian airline would take time and could not be achieved through government directives alone.

But he expressed confidence that the development would occur over time, as long as domestic carriers maintained clear, effective strategies and remained focused.

He said: “Nigeria is way behind in its air transport development because of a long time of being asleep at the controls. Even before the demise of Nigeria Airways, the flight had already stalled due to pilots sleeping at the controls. So, we cannot blame the Ethiopians, who continue to build their strategy, relying heavily on the Nigerian market, knowing it’s a ‘free for all’ for them.

“To build a successful, internationally competitive Nigerian carrier will take time. It will not and cannot happen by fiat. But it will happen with time, as long as domestic carriers have a clear and effective strategy and stay focused on it. The obstacles are very plentiful, but we have to have a way of steering around them in the meantime while fervently hoping that at a central level, some of these obstacles will continue to be eased off.”

Like Onitilo, Uriesi expressed concern that Nigeria’s liberal designation of foreign airlines to multiple airports could undermine the development of domestic carriers by allowing international airlines to penetrate markets that could otherwise support Nigerian airlines.

He posited that Nigerian passengers could now travel internationally from several airports without using Nigerian airlines for the connecting domestic legs.

Uriesi also queried the reciprocity of Nigeria’s international air service arrangements, stressing that Nigerian carriers might not receive equivalent access to the home markets of foreign airlines enjoying extensive access to multiple points in the country.

Besides, the Chief Commercial Officer of United Nigeria Airlines, Dayo Olawuyi, identified infrastructure and transit limitations as some of the biggest obstacles preventing Nigerian airlines from developing connecting traffic.

Olawuyi lamented that Nigerian carriers currently lacked the facilities required to efficiently connect international passengers through Nigerian airports.

According to him, international passengers connecting through Nigeria were often required to pass through immigration before checking in again for their onward flights.

Olawuyi explained that the situation effectively limited the routes Nigerian airlines could develop and made Nigeria less attractive as a connecting point.

He, therefore, called for an enabling environment that would allow Nigerian airlines to compete effectively with their counterparts across Africa.

He added: “Secondly, imagine a Nigerian carrier signs an interline agreement with Ethiopian Airlines.

The passengers arrive in Lagos on a domestic flight at the General Aviation Terminal (GAT) or the Murtala Muhammed Airport Two (MMA2), then they have to find their way to the international wing to continue the journey. This is another major challenge, which the foreign carriers are capitalising on.

“Creating an enabling environment is the first step in enabling the local carriers to compete favourably with their peers in the region.”

The Chief Executive Officer, Centurion Aviation Security Services, John Ojikutu, expressed concerns over Nigeria’s approach to granting foreign airlines access to multiple airports.

According to him, Nigeria had five international airports where foreign airlines operate, while Nigerian carriers remained concentrated on international operations from Lagos and Abuja.

He emphasised that Nigeria should have adopted a more balanced policy in granting international traffic rights.

“We have five international airports where many of the foreign airlines operate into, but ours can only operate from only two, Lagos and Abuja.

“I once suggested that no foreign airline should be allowed to operate to Lagos and Abuja, but Lagos or Abuja and one other at the alternative geographical location to the first choice. Connection for transiting passengers will remain difficult in Lagos, especially so long as the only airport service road between the domestic and international terminals remains a public road and the Federal Airports Authority of Nigeria (FAAN) is not ready to provide shuttle buses between the terminals.”