Nigeria’s National Sugar Development Council (NSDC) has unveiled a revised $7.1 billion master plan aimed at raising annual sugar production beyond two million metric tonnes within 10 years, reducing dependence on imports and conserving about $2.1 billion in foreign exchange annually.

The Executive Secretary and Chief Executive Officer of NSDC, Kamar Bakrin, disclosed this at a press conference with executives and members of the Commerce and Industry Correspondents Association of Nigeria (CICAN) in Abuja. He said the programme would also create 110,000 direct and indirect jobs and support more than one million livelihoods.

Nigeria consumes about 1.8 million metric tonnes of sugar annually, with more than 97 per cent of its refined sugar produced from imported raw sugar. Local mills produced approximately 27,000 metric tonnes last year, highlighting the gap between domestic production and consumption.

Bakrin said the plan would address structural and investment challenges that have constrained local production, including the economics that have historically favoured imports, inadequate long-term financing, weak enforcement of investment commitments and limited capacity in sugarcane agronomy.

The programme is built around three interventions: optimising existing estates and mills, expanding production by incumbent operators and developing 10 new greenfield sugar projects. The council projects that incumbent operators could produce about 1.22 million metric tonnes annually, while the greenfield projects are expected to contribute approximately 835,000 metric tonnes, taking output beyond two million tonnes when combined with other production initiatives.

The 10 greenfield projects are planned across Niger, Kwara, Oyo, Kaduna, Jigawa, Bauchi, Nasarawa and Adamawa states. According to the council, credible promoters have been identified for all the projects, with 143,478 hectares of land secured and a combined cane-crushing capacity of 55,500 tonnes daily. Each estate is designed to produce sugar, ethanol and electricity, while independent technical reviews are underway to ensure the projects are commercially viable and capable of attracting financing.

The council is also expanding its outgrower programme to integrate smallholder farmers into the sugar value chain. The initiative targets 11,000 hectares of farmer-grown sugarcane around existing mills, with 7,000 hectares already identified with partners in Kwara, Niger and Adamawa states. The first 1,320 hectares are expected to be cultivated next year, while arrangements for offtake agreements are being developed to guarantee markets for farmers’ produce. The scheme is expected to supply about 880,000 metric tonnes of sugarcane and generate approximately 88,000 metric tonnes of sugar annually.

The $7.1 billion investment requirement comprises $5 billion in debt and $2.1 billion in equity from project promoters and operators. The proposed debt financing includes $3 billion from export credit agencies, $1.75 billion from development finance institutions and $250 million from local development finance institutions.

To accelerate implementation, the council said it had signed a $1 billion engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) and financing agreement with Chinese firm Sinomach, subject to agreed financial milestones. It is also working with the Bank of Industry on a ₦10 billion Sugar Project Acceleration Fund to support feasibility studies and other preparatory work required to make projects bankable.

Bakrin said the council was seeking both local and international investors, particularly from Brazil, India and China. Local business groups had shown significant interest, with some already acquiring land and undertaking feasibility studies. Some projects could begin construction before the end of the year.

He said commercial sugarcane production was feasible in as many as 14 states, although the current project pipeline covers eight. Adequate water availability and sufficient rain-free days for sugar accumulation remain important considerations in selecting viable locations.

Beyond sugar production, the programme is expected to support Nigeria’s E10 biofuel mandate, which envisages a 10 per cent ethanol blend in fuel. The council projects that the estates could reduce annual emissions by two million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, while economic activity in host communities could more than double over the next decade.

Bakrin said the council was strengthening the industry’s agricultural and technical foundations through improved planting materials, training and research. Seed farms covering 222 hectares have been established in Kwara, Kano and Oyo states, with another 122 hectares planned. The initiative is expected to provide nearly 19,000 tonnes of certified sugarcane seed for the 2026/2027 planting season.

The council is also promoting bud-chip technology, which could reduce the nursery area required for a 20,000-hectare estate from about 6,000 hectares to approximately 260 hectares. Bakrin said the council had built capacity to produce 30 million seedlings, while 95 professionals were trained in 2026. Of these, 80 were certified in basic sugarcane agronomy, while 15 graduate trainees received field and laboratory training. The Nigerian Sugar Institute is also being strengthened to provide training, extension services, planting materials, project evaluation and technical support to estates.

To ensure operators meet their commitments, the council said it was improving monitoring through physical site inspections and satellite technology to track project development and assess progress.

Members of CICAN commended the council’s efforts but called for stronger enforcement of investment commitments by existing operators, affordable long-term financing and greater accountability across the industry. They also urged the council to organise site visits and training opportunities for journalists, provide regular quarterly briefings and improve access to information on implementation. The association requested participation in Nigerian Sugar Institute training programmes and office space for its secretariat within the NSDC building. The council said the requests had been noted and would be considered within available resources.

Responding to concerns about financing costs, Bakrin said the council was exploring structures that could bring dollar-denominated borrowing costs to about six per cent, potentially using the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) plus three percentage points.

CICAN members also warned that excessive imports by incumbent operators could undermine efforts to build domestic production, urging regulators to ensure companies comply with their commitments and that import arrangements do not discourage local investment.

The council said the programme’s success would depend on effective implementation, access to bankable financing, reliable sugarcane supply and sustained accountability across the value chain.