A former media aide to ex-Governor Gboyega Oyetola, Ismail Omipidan, has warned President Bola Tinubu to be wary of the strategy adopted by the All Progressives Congress in Osun State ahead of the 2027 presidential election, saying it may backfire.

In a scathing article titled: “Tinubu must beware: Osun panic strategy may backfire!”, released on Wednesday, Omipidan said any political strategy designed to achieve the selfish ambition of one individual is bound to fail.

He was reacting to the appointment of Governor Ademola Adeleke, who won the August 15 governorship election on the platform of Accord Party, as Coordinator of President Tinubu’s campaign in Osun State, and his promise to deliver 1.5 million votes for the President.

Omipidan said the first time he heard about the 1.5 million vote theory was barely 24 hours after APC lost the August 15 governorship election in Osun, adding that listening to the National Secretary of APC, Senator Ajibola Basiru, repeat it confirmed suspicions that some persons in the Presidency and national officials of the party plotted APC’s defeat in Osun.

He said the Presidency and APC leadership failed to consider local peculiarities, character and culture of the people in bringing opposition figures to work for Tinubu’s re-election, noting that what works in Rivers and Anambra may not succeed in Osun.

The journalist argued that Osun has never posted up to a million votes in any presidential election in its history, describing the 1.5 million promise as unrealistic.

Giving historical data, Omipidan said in 2011, ACN polled 299,711 votes against PDP’s 188,409 with 1,342,289 registered voters; in 2015, APC won with 383,603 against PDP’s 249,929 with 1,407,107 registered voters; in 2019, APC polled 347,634 while PDP had 337,377 with 1,674,729 registered voters; and in 2023, APC scored 342,941 while PDP had 353,860. Even the August 15 governorship election, he noted, produced less than one million total votes.

He therefore queried: “Where is the 1.5 million votes coming from?”

Omipidan urged President Tinubu and Oyetola to tread cautiously, saying those claiming political pragmatism in Osun are out to set the two leaders against each other and have presented the President as someone jittery over 2027.

While conceding that Adeleke’s appointment as Osun Coordinator is part of strategy to tie him to his promise, he called on the President and party leadership to urgently allow Osun APC to have its own structure to drive the election.

According to him, APC members in the state already feel thrown under the bus, warning that the Presidency must not toy with emotions of majority of party members who he said are in the majority against those pushing the current arrangement.

He said politics is influenced by interest, sentiment and emotion, quoting Professor Drew Westen of Emory University that “In politics, when reason and emotion collide, emotion invariably wins.”

Omipidan said he recently tested Adam Smith’s Rational Choice Theory of 1776 to establish factors influencing voters’ choice, which posits that voters use self-interest to make choices that provide greatest benefit.

He explained that an average person in Osun would view Adeleke’s emergence as Osun Coordinator as personal gain to few individuals who orchestrated it and may therefore decide not to show commitment to Tinubu’s re-election.

The APC chieftain said the party cannot cover likely deficit from Oyo State by playing politics with people’s emotions in Osun, arguing that better result would be guaranteed if Adeleke does his work while APC does its own.

On Oyo, Omipidan said Governor Seyi Makinde is not in the race to win but to play spoiler, but has done extremely well to deserve sympathy and votes of majority of Oyo voters.

He therefore suggested that APC should put together respected leaders of thought from the South-West to engage Makinde on mutually beneficial political relationship rather than approaching him with arrogance.

He warned that if anything happens to the votes Makinde contributed to Tinubu’s kitty in 2023, it will have dire consequences for general outlook in the South-West in 2027.

Omipidan promised to return later with analysis on Tinubu’s re-election and the North challenge.