Renaissance Capital Africa has raised its estimated value of Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals to N700.41 per share, a 33.41 per cent premium over the N525 offer price, as stronger refining margins and ‘better-than-expected’ earnings improved its outlook.

The revised valuation, contained in the investment firm’s October 16 update, ‘Stronger Refining Margins Drive Earnings Outperformance,’ represented an increase of N80.94, or about 13.1 per cent, from its previous estimate of N619.47 per share.’

The upward revision comes as the refinery’s initial public offering (IPO), which involves selling 4.1 billion shares at N525 each, has been extended to October 27, 2026, after regulatory approval to accommodate investor interest and broaden access across Africa and other markets.

The offer, valued at approximately N2.15 trillion, is one of the most significant equity fundraising exercises in Nigeria’s capital market. Renaissance Capital’s revised valuation would further shape investor assessment of the offer, particularly as prospective shareholders weigh the refinery’s earnings potential against the offer price. Dangote Refinery

However, the N700.41 figure reflects an analyst’s valuation, not a guaranteed market price or investment return. The eventual value investors realise will depend on the refinery’s financial performance, market conditions and the price at which its shares trade after listing.

The latest assessment follows a stronger-than-expected financial performance in the first nine months of 2026, with the refinery recording substantial growth in revenue, earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA), and net profit.

For the nine months ended September 30, 2026, the refinery reported a net profit of $4.73 billion, compared with a loss of $117.2 million in the corresponding period of 2025. Revenue increased by 144.5 per cent year-on-year to $22.48 billion, while EBITDA rose to $5.52 billion from $627.6 million a year earlier.

The results exceeded Renaissance Capital’s estimates of $21.07 billion in revenue, $4.10 billion in EBITDA and $2.82 billion in net profit, strengthening its assessment of the refinery’s ability to generate earnings from its operations.

The company’s financial position also improved considerably during the period. It moved from a net debt position of $1.73 billion a year earlier to a net cash position of $650.8 million at the end of September 2026, while cash holdings stood at $6.69 billion.

The improved earnings and cash position further supported the upward revision, although the sustainability of performance will depend on margin improvement, operating conditions, and the refinery’s ability to maintain efficient production.

The third quarter was particularly strong, with revenue reaching $8.57 billion, 19.7 per cent above Renaissance Capital’s forecast. EBITDA climbed to $2.92 billion, almost double the investment firm’s estimate of $1.50 billion.

The refinery’s EBITDA margin, which measures operating earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation as a proportion of revenue, rose to 34.1 per cent in the third quarter, up from 18.7 per cent in the first half of the year.

Renaissance Capital attributed the improvement largely to stronger refining margins rather than a significant reduction in operating costs. The refinery’s cash operating costs stood at $5.65 billion, broadly in line with the investment firm’s estimate.

The stronger results suggested that the refinery benefited from favourable conditions in international petroleum markets, particularly improved margins on refined products.

However, the investment firm noted that crude oil cost lags and hedging activities might also have contributed to the reported performance.