…ILO predicts gloomy outlook for employment..<em

UNTIL government fine-tunes its policies, which have been described as “consistently inconsistent”, the plight of job seekers in the country may not yet be primed for a change.

That was the verdict of a recent study on unemployment in Nigeria, where respondents were unanimous that a clear-cut policy formulation and implementation on job creation, among others, would address the problem of unemployment in the country.

The study was presented recently in Lagos, just as the International Labour Organisation (ILO) projected that the global unemployment rate would in fact rise in 2016 and 2017.

ILO said despite falling unemployment levels in some developed economies, new analysis shows the global job crisis is not likely to end, especially in emerging economies.

A sneak preview into the findings of the Management of National Unemployment Challenge Committee (MNUC) study, courtesy of the Chartered Institute of Personnel Management (CIPM) Nigeria, identified ‘government’s policy inconsistencies’ as the main reason why at least one in every four Nigerian (National Bureau of Statistics, NBS figure) is unemployed.

Using questionnaires of over 3000 sample size from respondents across all walks of life, the ratings show as follows:

• Government’s policy inconsistencies ranked as the most important factor responsible for unemployment in Nigeria. Average rating of 4.56 on a scale of 5.

• Poor political governance and setting of policy direction as the second most important factor that has contributed to unemployment in Nigeria. Average rating of 4.42 on a scale of 5.

• Harsh operating business environment to be as important as poor political governance in contributing to unemployment in Nigeria. Average rating of 4.42 on a scale of 5.

• Lack of a national employment policy that is owned by all political actors/citizens as the next important factor that has contributed to unemployment in Nigeria. Average rating of 4.23 on a scale of 5.

• Educational system is not tailored nor aligned to industry needs. Average rating of 4.20 on a scale of 5.

Chairman of the MNUC, Dr. Musa Rabiu, at the presentation of initial findings for stakeholders in Lagos, noted that due to poor policy articulation and formulation, Nigeria has a population of employable youths without the opportunity in the critical sectors of the economy.

In his words: “Overall, there is a 20.1 per cent unemployment rate, but for the youths, it is even higher than that. What is coming out from the survey is that we need to do something urgent on high level of unemployment particularly for those who have lower skills; like vocational skills, people in the manufacturing as well as those in the high-level skills like doctors, engineers and so forth.

“A population of 170 million has a potential to add to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), if the highly skilled products of the education sector are employed. The findings provide a basis for CIPM to partner with the Federal Government, key stakeholders in the manufacturing, financial and the informal sector,” Rabiu said.

He added that the goal of the Focus Group Discussion (FGD) of stakeholders held in Abuja and Lagos, was to ensure that every stakeholder that would be involved in actual implementation of findings and solutions buy into the study ahead of implementation.

According to the ILO’s World Employment and Social Outlook – Trends 2016 (WESO), the final figure for unemployment in 2015 is estimated to stand at 197.1 million and in 2016; it is forecast to rise by about 2.3 million to reach 199.4 million. An additional 1.1 million jobless will likely be added to the global tally in 2017.

ILO Director-General Guy Ryder, noted that the significant slowdown in emerging economies coupled with a sharp decline in commodity prices is having a dramatic effect on the world of work.

“Many working women and men are having to accept low paid jobs, both in emerging and developing economies and also, increasingly in developed countries. And despite a drop in the number of unemployed in some European Union (EU) countries and the United States (US), too many people are still jobless. We need to take urgent action to boost the number of decent work opportunities or we risk intensified social tensions,” he said.

In 2015, total global unemployment stood at 197.1 million – 27 million higher than the pre-crisis level of 2007.

The unemployment rate for developed economies decreased from 7.1 per cent in 2014 to 6.7 per cent in 2015. In most cases, however, these improvements were not sufficient to eliminate the jobs gap that emerged as a result of the global financial crisis.

Moreover, the employment outlook has now weakened in emerging and developing economies, notably in Brazil, China and oil-producing countries. Nigeria’s unemployment rates (of people out of 40-hour a week work) stood at 23.9 per cent in 2011; 27.4 per cent in 2012; 24.7 per cent in 2013 and 25. 1 per cent in 2014 (NBS, 2014).

“The unstable economic environment associated with volatile capital flows, still dysfunctional financial markets and the shortage of global demand continue to affect enterprises and deter investment and job creation,” explains Raymond Torres, Director of the ILO Research Department.

“In addition, policy-makers need to focus more on strengthening employment policies and tackling excessive inequalities. There is much evidence that well-designed labour market and social policies are essential for boosting economic growth and addressing the jobs crisis and almost eight years after the start of the global crisis, a strengthening of that policy approach is urgently needed,” Torres said.

The authors of the WESO also document the fact that job quality remains a major challenge. While there has been a decrease in poverty rates, the rate of decline in the number of working poor in developing economies has slowed and vulnerable employment still accounts for over 46 per cent of total employment globally, affecting nearly 1.5 billion people.

Vulnerable employment is particularly high in emerging and developing economies, hitting between half and three-quarters of the employed population in those groups of countries, respectively, with peaks in Southern Asia (74 per cent) and sub-Saharan Africa (70 per cent).

Meanwhile, the report shows that informal employment – as a percentage of non-agricultural employment – exceeds 50 per cent in half of the developing and emerging countries with comparable data. In one-third of these countries, it affects over 65 per cent of workers.

“The lack of decent jobs leads people to turn to informal employment, which is typically characterized by low productivity, low pay and no social protection. This needs to change. Responding urgently and vigorously to the scale of the global jobs challenge is key to successful implementation of the United Nations’ newly adopted 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development,” concludes Ryder.

President and Chairman of Governing Council, CIPM Nigeria, Anthony Arabome, explained that the idea of the MNUC study was conceived by the leadership of the CIPM as a response to the social, economic and political challenges of managing unemployment in Nigeria, which is Africa’s most populous country.

CIPM, in line with its mandate (Act 58 of 1992) as the regulatory body on Human Resource Management practice in Nigeria, came up with the initiative to research into the unemployment issues in Nigeria and make suitable and implementable recommendations to the federal government of Nigeria and other stakeholders to manage the challenge.

Nigeria’s unemployment and under employment rates, Arabome observed, have significant impact on the people particularly in the age brackets of 15 -24 years and 25 – 34 years, “which portend grave dangers for national geo-political stability.”

“These age brackets represent the ‘engine room’ of the nation’s labour force which would only become productive if untapped economic opportunities are unleashed to engage the talents of these Nigerians in more productive work.

“In order for the ‘engine room’ of the labour force not to become a time bomb for our nation we have to collaborate across sectors and in tandem with Government at all levels to find practical and creative solutions to manage unemployment in Nigeria,” he said.

The president added that there is no gain saying that the level of unemployment poses a serious national security risk that requires urgent attention of all stakeholders.

“It is generally recognized that a vibrant population that is not productively engaged might divert its energy towards criminal and other unsociable activities to the detriment of the society. Terrorism, armed robbery, car-jacking, kidnapping and other crimes and vices all feed off poverty, which is instigated in part by unemployment.

“This undesirable scenario would certainly not boost Nigeria’s GDP or HDI; rather it would plummet it with the attendant reputational stigma within the comity of nations. We do not want this for our country.

“We should expect that when the country does the right things, for example, when the talent of the vibrant population is professionally managed, value of both material and intangible nature, will be created thereby ensuring economic development and better living standards for most Nigerians.

“In order to address this unemployment problem and determine the desirable employment levels in Nigeria, the MNUC research objective is first to explore and understand the current state of affairs (i.e. nature of unemployment, the causative factors and interrelationships) and then proffer suitable practical solutions to manage the unemployment issues in Nigeria,” he said.

The Director General of the Nigerian Employers Consultative Association (NECA), Segun Oshinowo, who represented the Organised Private Sector at the Focus Group Discussion in Lagos, said that the study has again confirmed their fears on growing unemployment in the country, and therefore, called on the government to buy into its outcomes for implementation.

Osinowo said that unemployment has become a cankerworm in our environment, with parents going through hard times keeping their children sane and healthy.