The World Bank said 52.9 million people in Nigeria and other West and Central African countries will face acute food and nutrition insecurity during the June to August 2026 lean season due to the ongoing Middle East conflict.

This is to affect the Sahel, Lake Chad Basin and northeastern Nigeria the most.

The World Bank, in its recent global markets outlook, said the conflict in the Middle East was increasing concerns about higher fuel, freight and fertiliser costs in the region that depends heavily on imported inputs and food.

According to the World Bank, the pressures could affect the 2026/2027 agricultural season by reducing fertiliser affordability and increasing production costs.

“The Middle East conflict is increasing risks to food security. Nearly 52.9 million people are projected to be acutely food insecure in West and Central Africa during the June to August 2026 lean season, especially in conflict-affected areas of the central Sahel, the Lake Chad Basin and northeastern Nigeria,” the bank noted.

The institution noted that pastoral conditions are also worsening in parts of the western and central Sahel because of pasture and water shortages, bushfires and insecurity-related movement restrictions.

The World Bank noted that disruptions to oil, gas and fertiliser flows through the Strait of Hormuz drove a 46 per cent month-on-month rise in urea prices and increased agricultural price indices by eight per cent, raising the risk of an affordability crisis.

World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook projected that fertiliser prices would rise by 31 per cent on average this year, reaching their least affordable levels since 2022.

“The ongoing Middle East conflict has been a key driver of fertiliser market volatility. Fertiliser price pressures intensified from February through April 2026, with urea surging over 80 per cent amid regional conflict-driven supply disruptions, while DAP and TSP fertilisers rose approximately 16 and 23 per cent, respectively, reflecting the cumulative impact of energy cost pass-through and trade route uncertainty.

The institution noted that conflict and climate shocks continue to be the primary drivers of acute food insecurity, with up to 67 million people in need of food assistance in East and Southern Africa.

The bank further stated that food and nutrition security conditions in West and Central Africa remain fragile despite favourable harvests and an increase in cereal supplies.

The institution noted that since the last update in March, agricultural and cereal prices indices have increased by three and four per cent, respectively, while the export price index has decreased by four per cent.

The World Bank stated that maize and wheat prices, which closed five and 11 per cent higher, respectively, are driving the increase in the cereal price index, while rice prices closed five per cent lower.

On a year-on-year basis, the bank noted that the average prices for wheat and maize are 19 and five per cent higher, respectively, while rice prices are six per cent lower.