The African Refiners and Distributors Association (ARDA) has warned that the Iran crisis has exposed Africa’s dangerous dependence on imported petroleum products, urging accelerated investments in regional refining hubs to shield the continent from recurring global supply disruptions.

Speaking at the 2026 Angola Oil and Gas Conference in Luanda, Angola, Executive Secretary of ARDA, Anibor Kragha, said recent geopolitical shocks had demonstrated that energy security had evolved into energy sovereignty, with domestic refining becoming indispensable for Africa’s economic resilience.

According to him, the supply chain disruptions triggered by the Iran crisis mirror the fallout from the Russia-Ukraine war and COVID-19, reinforcing that such disruptions have become the “new normal” for energy markets.

“The refining sector is poised to be the game-changer in Africa’s drive towards energy sovereignty,” Kragha said, arguing that the continent must deliberately expand refining capacity to reduce its exposure to external shocks.

He noted that the U.S.-Iran conflict curtailed global oil demand by about four million barrels per day, while African countries, particularly in East Africa, suffered fuel shortages, panic buying and long queues at filling stations as imported supplies became constrained.

Across the continent, the crisis disrupted aviation fuel logistics, prompted emergency government measures to curb demand and exposed the risks of relying heavily on overseas suppliers and trading centres, particularly Dubai, for fuel procurement and financing.

Kragha said higher diesel and aviation fuel prices had significantly increased working capital requirements for importers, while shipment delays and supply non-performance complicated contingency planning for governments and market operators.

He argued that Africa’s structural vulnerability stems from a widening gap between domestic consumption and refining capacity.

ARDA’s presentation showed that Africa consumed about 4.23 million barrels of petroleum products per day in 2023 but imported 2.78 million barrels per day, underscoring the continent’s dependence on external markets despite being a major crude oil producer.

Demand is projected to rise by 40 per cent over the next two decades, with fossil fuel consumption expected to continue growing alongside population and economic expansion.

To reverse the trend, Kragha said Africa would require at least six additional refineries comparable to the Dangote Refinery to move towards self-sufficiency.

Beyond building refineries, he called for integrated investments in storage terminals, logistics infrastructure and regional distribution networks to strengthen supply flexibility during future disruptions.

As part of that strategy, ARDA and the African Petroleum Producers’ Organisation have launched the APPO-ARDA Refining Model Development Initiative, aimed at creating economically viable refining and distribution systems tailored to African markets.

The initiative will develop refinery models suited to African crude types, prepare master plans for regional refining hubs across West, Central, Southern, East and North Africa, and produce a continental refining strategy extending to 2050.

Kragha disclosed that a Joint Technical Committee established in July 2026 had already begun selecting the first pilot refining hub and anchor country through a transparent multi-criteria process.