Energy analysts in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector have defended the pricing structure of Dangote Petroleum Refinery, accusing some fuel marketers of misrepresenting recent petrol price adjustments and attempting to mislead the public.

The experts argue that claims linking the refinery solely to the latest increase in petrol prices fail to consider broader market realities in Nigeria’s deregulated fuel sector.

They noted that petrol importers are currently bringing products into the country at prices close to ₦1,000 per litre, while the refinery’s coastal delivery price is about ₦948 per litre and the gantry or ex-depot price is around ₦995 per litre.

Industry specialists explained that the two figures represent different logistics arrangements rather than conflicting prices.

According to them, the ₦948 per litre rate reflects the coastal delivery price—petroleum products transported from the refinery to coastal depots by marine vessels or barges.

By contrast, the ₦995 per litre gantry price refers to the cost paid by marketers who load petrol directly from the refinery into tanker trucks at the loading gantry for distribution across the country.

Analysts said public comparisons often overlook these differences within the petroleum distribution chain.

Speaking on the development, energy analyst David Okon said price adjustments were unavoidable given the sharp rise in global crude oil prices.

According to him, the refinery operates within Nigeria’s deregulated petroleum market and purchases crude oil at international market rates.

“When the refinery previously sold petrol at about ₦774 per litre, crude oil was landing at roughly $68 per barrel,” he said.

“With crude now trading close to $95 per barrel, the cost difference significantly affects production costs.”

He added that without local refining capacity, Nigeria could have faced severe fuel shortages and long queues at filling stations.

Another analyst, Mohammed Ibrahim, accused some importers of attempting to manipulate public perception in response to the emergence of local refining.

“What we are seeing is deliberate pressure from some importers who feel threatened by domestic refining,” he said.

“They are exaggerating the refinery’s gantry price while ignoring the comparable cost of imported petrol.”

According to him, such narratives risk creating unnecessary panic in the market and undermining the development of local refining capacity.

Afolabi Olowookere, Managing Director and Chief Economist at Analysts’ Data Services and Resources Limited, said expectations that locally refined petrol would immediately become significantly cheaper may not align with current market conditions.

He explained that petrol prices remain influenced by several factors, including global crude oil prices, exchange rate movements and distribution logistics.

Olowookere added that improving domestic crude supply to the refinery could help strengthen supply stability and enhance the long-term economic benefits of local refining.

Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have also contributed to rising crude oil prices globally, with benchmark prices exceeding $90 per barrel.

Oil prices spiked near $120 per barrel on Sunday before falling back slightly on Monday as the Iran war intensified, threatening production and shipping in the Middle East and pummeling financial markets.

The price for a barrel of Brent crude, the international standard, surged to $119.50 per barrel but later was trading at $112.98.

West Texas Intermediate, the light, sweet crude oil produced in the United States, spiked at $119.48 per barrel but fell back to $110.17.

Higher crude prices have pushed up fuel costs in several countries, including Ghana, the United States, the United Kingdom, South Africa, India, Canada, Brazil, Germany, France and Japan, as rising crude costs increase the expenses associated with refining, transportation and distribution worldwide.