Global market developments have continued to impact negatively on the Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX), as market capitalisation depreciated by N110 billion in one week, despite mouth-watering full-year earnings and dividend declarations by listed firms.
Last week, the U.S. Federal Reserve maintained a hawkish tone in its monetary policy outlook, signaling that interest rates may stay elevated for a longer period amid persistent inflationary pressure.
This spurred a wave of sell sentiment among global investors, triggering capital outflows from emerging markets, including Nigeria.Also, concerns about China’s slowing economy and weak global demand weighed on investor sentiment. These global headwinds, coupled with domestic macroeconomic challenges such as high inflation, foreign exchange volatility and insecurity, have continued to dampen the appetite for Nigerian equities.
Despite impressive financial results from major companies, including bumper dividend payouts by tier-1 banks and blue-chip firms, the broader market failed to rally, suggesting that external pressures and local uncertainties are overpowering corporate fundamentals in driving investor decisions.
Analysts believe that unless there’s clarity on global monetary policy direction and domestic reforms are fast-tracked, the NGX may remain vulnerable to further downturns.
Market capitalisation of listed equities declined by N110 billion to N66.147 trillion last Friday, from N66.257 trillion at which it closed trading on Friday, March 28, 2025. Also, the all-share index declined by 148.75 or 0.1 per cent from 105,660.64 to 105,511.89 points.
Market activity was notably subdued during the week under review, reflecting the cautious mood of investors amid shortened trading sessions.
Total trades dropped by 30.9 per cent week-on-week to 42,397 transactions, while both volume and value traded suffered steep declines. Volume of shares traded also shrank by 84.3 per cent to 1.18 billion units, and the value of transactions plummeted by 92.8 per cent to N28.87 billion, underscoring the impact of fewer trading days and weak market participation.
The exchange recorded only 21 gainers compared to 51 laggards, resulting in a weak market breadth of 0.41x and reinforcing the prevailing bearish sentiment. Sectoral performance was largely negative, except for the NGX Banking Index, which rose by 1.50 per cent week-on-week. This positive move was supported by investor interest in banking stocks such as GTCO, Fidelity Bank, Access Holdings and Wema Bank.
On the contrary, the NGX Insurance Index led the sectoral losers with a sharp decline of 5.4 per cent, reflecting sell-offs in Sunu Assurance and UNIVINSURE. The oil and gas index dipped by 1.2 per cent pressured by losses in Oando.
The consumer goods index declined by 0.7 per cent, dragged down by stocks like Tantalizers and PZ Cussons, while the Industrial Goods Index edged lower by 0.2 per cent due to declines in WAPCO and Cutix. The NGX Commodity Index, however, closed flat for the week.
Among the top-performing stocks were VFDGROUP, which gained 20.8 per cent, and Uniondicon, which appreciated by 19.6 per cent. African Prudential added 15.7 per cent, NGXGROUP garnered +11.9 per cent, and UPDC REIT rose by 10.9 per cent.
On the flip side, UACN led the laggards with a loss of 18.3 per cent, followed by Sunu Assurance with 13.4 per cent. OANDO also shed 13.1 per cent while CHIPLC dropped also12.8 per cent.
Looking ahead, market analysts expect a mixed performance on the Nigerian Exchange in the coming week as investors continue to weigh dividend announcements against broader macroeconomic and global developments.
According to analysts at Cowry Asset Management, sentiment will likely be driven by ongoing corporate actions, with investors reinvesting earnings in fundamentally strong stocks. However, they noted that global market uncertainties and domestic economic signals could continue to influence overall market direction.
Vetiva Dealings and Brokerage shares a similar outlook, citing limited movement in key buy-side indicators. While the general tone is expected to remain cautious, the firm noted that bargain hunting in large-cap stocks could lend some upward momentum to the market.
Additionally, with several stocks nearing their dividend qualification dates, buying interest could pick up, potentially supporting a more positive tone.
Cordos Capital also anticipates a largely cautious trading environment, especially in the absence of any major market-moving news. Still, the firm highlighted that recent dividend declarations and expected earnings releases—particularly from banking giants like Accesscorp and Firstholdco may trigger selective bargain-hunting among investors.
