CFG Advisory has projected Nigeria’s gross domestic product to grow by five per cent in 2026. The projection was presented by the Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of CFG Advisory, Adetilewa Adebajo, at the Finance Correspondents Association of Nigeria (FICAN) Monthly Forum held in Lagos last week.

Adebajo explained that the five per cent growth forecast is premised on expectations that inflation will ease into single digits, creating room for a moderation in monetary policy, with the benchmark interest rate projected at around 20 percent. He also pointed to relative stability in the foreign exchange market, with the naira expected to trade between N1,400 and N1,500 to the dollar.

According to him, the outlook reflects an economy that is gradually finding its footing after nearly three years of difficult reforms, including the removal of fuel subsidies and major foreign exchange adjustments.

He noted, however, that Nigeria has reached a turning point where macroeconomic stabilisation must translate into productivity-led growth if the reforms are to have meaningful social and economic impact.

He warned that while a five percent growth rate represents progress, it remains insufficient to address Nigeria’s deep development challenges.

Adebajo said the economy needs to expand at between eight and ten percent annually to significantly improve living standards and lift more than 140 million Nigerians out of multidimensional poverty. Without such accelerated growth, he cautioned that the benefits of recent reforms could remain largely out of reach for the majority of the population.

Beyond growth prospects, CFG Advisory boss raised strong concerns about the country’s fiscal position. He disclosed that Nigeria’s cumulative budget deficits over the past three years have exceeded N50 trillion, highlighting what he described as a growing crisis of fiscal discipline

He added that the fiscal deficit for 2026 alone is estimated at N23.85 trillion, raising questions about the sustainability of current spending patterns. He further warned about the rising burden of debt servicing, noting that debt service obligations in the 2026 budget are projected at N15.2 trillion.

The figure, he said, exceeds the combined allocation of N14.97 trillion for defence, security, education and health, a situation he described as a major constraint on the government’s ability to fund critical capital projects and social investments needed for long-term development.

He called for urgent policy measures to strengthen revenue generation, reduce waste and improve fiscal management. He also stressed the need to consolidate reform gains while prioritising productivity-enhancing policies that can translate macroeconomic stability into inclusive and sustainable growth.