The Alliance for Economic Research and Ethics (AREET) has raised the alarm over the escalating standoff between the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN) and the management of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, warning that the prolonged strike could trigger an economic and energy crisis.
The crisis, which erupted over the suspension and dismissal of workers at the refinery following allegations of sabotage, has already drawn the backing of the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC), amplifying the scale of the disruption.
AREET, in a statement yesterday, described the situation as a “severe asymmetric shock” to energy security and macroeconomic stability, stressing that the strike threatens to plunge the country into fuel shortages, inflationary spikes, capital flight and loss of investor confidence.
The group noted that the Dangote Refinery, with a nameplate capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, was intended to end decades of reliance on imported refined petroleum products and anchor economic stability.
“Any disruption to its operations,” it warned, “could force Nigeria back to costly fuel imports, widen the trade deficit, deplete foreign reserves and put fresh pressure on the foreign exchange market.”
AREET pointed out that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) had only recently reduced the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) from 27.5 to 27 percent, citing easing inflation and improved external reserves of about $42 billion.
Those fragile gains, it cautioned, “could quickly evaporate if refinery operations remain crippled, leading to fuel scarcity, rising transport and power costs, a fresh wave of inflation, and possible reversal of monetary policy.”
The knock-on effects, the group said, would include capital flight, exchange rate depreciation, higher borrowing costs, and GDP downgrades. The think-tank further warned that public allegations of sabotage against a flagship private investment like the Dangote Refinery could severely undermine Nigeria’s investment climate.
“By eroding faith in labour peace, contractual sanctity and regulatory oversight, the dispute risks freezing or delaying major projects in the oil and gas sector and beyond, weakening long-term industrial prospects.”
On the social front, AREET warned that fuel shortages could stoke public discontent, raise transportation costs, and ignite wider protests that may escalate into a national political crisis.
Such unrest, it cautioned, “could further constrain government’s capacity to respond effectively, especially with campaigns for the 2027 general election already gathering momentum.”
To forestall further escalation, AREET called for an emergency tripartite meeting within 48 hours involving PENGASSAN, NLC, Dangote Refinery management, the Federal Ministry of Labour and Employment, the Ministry of Petroleum Resources and the CBN, with an independent mediator in attendance.
It also recommended a forensic investigation into the sabotage allegations, a temporary suspension of dismissals until due process is followed, and a coordinated communication strategy to reassure citizens and investors of continuity in fuel supply.
“Nigeria stands at an inflection point. The Dangote Refinery represents a generational opportunity to pivot away from fuel import dependence. A protracted industrial action that impedes its operation risks reversing the modest but hard-won macroeconomic gains.
“Only a mediated, transparent resolution that credibly investigates sabotage claims, restores fair employment processes and secures continuous refinery operations can protect livelihoods, investment and national recovery.”
