For the third consecutive month, Nigeria’s headline inflation has maintained an uptick trend, rising from 15.69 per cent in April 2026 to 15.93 per cent in May.

This trend is the direct opposite of the inflation movement in 2025, when it experienced nine months of consistent decline following the rebasing of the consumer price index (CPI) by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

The reversal of the deceleration started in March 2026 when the headline inflation rose from 15.06 per cent in February to 15.38 per cent, the first rise in 11 straight months.

The upwards movement continued in April as the rate rose to 15.69 per cent and now to 15.93 per cent in May.

The major drivers of inflation remain food and beverages, transportation, housing, energy, health and education, which collectively account for about 87% of headline inflation. This highlights the reality that the inflation burden is concentrated in the necessities consumed by ordinary Nigerians.

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) had dismissed inflation hike scare during its May 2026 Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, describing the resumed acceleration as transitory and propelled by external shocks.

The CBN had then adopted what it called a cautious hold, retaining the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 26.5 per cent, shunning the temptation to resume tightening.

The Bank had expressed confidence in the ability of the economy to weather the storm, given the stability of the exchange rate, strong external reserves and the ongoing fiscal reforms by the government.

In his comments, the Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), Dr Muda Yusuf, said the recent diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East and the moderation of crude oil prices from about $90 per barrel to approximately $83 per barrel provide grounds for cautious optimism.

“If geopolitical tensions continue to ease and supply chain conditions improve, inflationary pressures could begin to moderate from the third quarter of 2026.

“For now, the inflation uptick appears to be more of an external shock phenomenon and domestic structural headwinds than a reflection of domestic macroeconomic instability. The policy priority should therefore be to tackle the structural cost drivers of inflation, particularly insecurity, food supply constraints, transportation costs and energy prices.

These are the pressure points that matter most to citizens’ welfare and business competitiveness”, he added.

The May inflation figures are well above the CBN and Fitch forecasts for 2026, which were 12.94 per cent, predicated on declining food and energy prices and 15.5 per cent forecast, predicated on the Middle East crisis, energy and trade shocks, respectively.

Although the May 2026 consumer price index (CPI) report released yesterday shows that the headline inflation rate on a month-on-month basis dropped to 1.75 per cent, 0.39 per cent lower than the rate recorded in April 2026. It suggests the current intensity of the inflation is softening.

Core inflation, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural produce and energy, stood at 16.82 per cent in May on a year-on-year basis. On a month-on-month basis, the core inflation rate was 1.94 per cent, up by 0.92 per cent compared to April when it was 1.03 per cent.

Food inflation on its part also experienced an upward trend, moving from 16.06 per cent, in April to 16.96 per cent. On a month-on-month basis, the food inflation rate was 2.98 per cent, a 0.65 per cent decline compared to the April figure, which was 3.63 per cent.

The three major contributors to the headline inflation were food and non-alcoholic beverages at 6.38 per cent, restaurants and accommodation services at 2.06 per cent, and transport at 1.7 per cent.

The least contributors according to the report were recreation/sport/culture at 0.05 per cent, alcoholic beverages/tobacco/narcotics at 0.06 per cent and insurance/financial services at 0.07 per cent.

Yobe State recorded the highest inflation movement at 24.94 per cent on a year-on-year basis, followed by Anambra at 23.29 per cent, and Sokoto at 22.6 per cent.

Niger state, at a headline inflation rate of 3.07 per cent, Plateau (7.1 per cent) and Edo (7.73 per cent) recorded the slowest rise in headline inflation year-on-year.