World trade outlook this year will be shaped by investment in artificial intelligence (AI) , which continues to energise global demand for high-tech goods and digitally delivered services and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

This is contained in the World Trade Organisation (WTO) Secretariat’s latest Global Trade Outlook and Statistics 2026, which presents the last year’s data as well as new projections for 2026 and 2027.

The report noted that while trade proved more resilient than expected last year, some of the factors behind that resilience, such as frontloading of imports ahead of tariff hikes and investment in AI-related infrastructure, are expected to be absent or reduced this year. This is expected to cause growth in global trade volume to slow this year before it picks up next year.

World merchandise trade volumes expanded by 4.6 per cent last year, nearly double the growth expected a year earlier. Much of this strong growth came from the AI surge, booming investment in data centres, processors, semiconductor equipment and other AI-enabling products. These goods accounted for almost half of global trade growth in 2025, despite representing only one-sixth of total merchandise trade.

Asia was, once again, the engine of global trade. The region singlehandedly contributed 71 per cent of total merchandise trade growth, with especially strong results from China, Singapore, Chinese Taipei and Thailand. North America also saw robust imports early in the year, partly due to frontloading of imports. Services trade also continued its post-pandemic normalisation. Travel growth moderated as pent-up demand eased, but digitally delivered services and other commercial services continued to show strong, steady growth.

The baseline scenario for trade growth in the report points to slower merchandise trade growth of 1.9 per cent this year, before a modest pickup to 2.6 per cent in 2027. Services trade is expected to expand somewhat faster, by 4.8 per cent in 2026, rising to 5.1 per cent in 2027.

Expressing uncertainty about the forecast for this year, it noted that this is a result of the persistent high oil prices and the durability of the AI boom.

“On one hand, a persistent impact of the Middle East conflict on energy and transport costs could have important negative implications for global output and trade. If oil price increases persist throughout 2026, we estimate that world merchandise trade growth could fall by 0.5 percentage points, dropping from 1.9 per cent to around 1.4 per cent.

“Services trade, especially transport and travel, would be even more exposed to the impact of the Middle East conflict. Services growth could dip to 4.1 per cent from the baseline projection of 4.8 per cent, with services trade in the Middle East expected to contract because of cancelled flights, disrupted shipping routes and higher insurance costs.

On the other hand, AI-related spending continued to exceed expectations in early 2026. If this momentum persists, and demand for AI-enabling goods remains at 2025 levels throughout the year, global merchandise trade growth could add 0.5 percentage points, potentially offsetting much of the energy-related drag,” it noted.

Revealing that, beyond short-term shocks, several structural shifts continue to reshape global trade, the report added that the share of AI-enabling goods in world trade rose from around 13 per cent in 2023 to nearly 17 per cent by the end of 2025, while trade in these products grew by 21.9 per cent year-on-year in 2025.