Global goods trade posted a strong uptick in Q1 of this year, driven by importers frontloading purchases ahead of anticipated higher tariffs; however, weakening export orders suggest that this momentum may not be sustained. 
 
This is according to the World Trade Organisation (WTO) latest Goods Trade Barometer, which rose to 103.5, up from 102.8 in March, while the forward-looking new export orders index fell to 97.9, pointing to weaker trade growth later in the year.
 
The Goods Trade Barometer is a composite leading indicator for world trade, providing real-time information on the trajectory of merchandise trade relative to recent trends. Barometer values greater than 100 are associated with above-trend trade volumes, while values less than 100 suggest that goods trade has either fallen below trend or will do so soon.
 
While the current barometer reading exceeds both the baseline value of 100 and the quarterly trade volume index, the decline in export orders and the temporary nature of frontloading suggest that trade growth may slow in the months ahead as enterprises import less and start to draw down accumulated inventories.
 
The most predictive barometer component, the new export orders index (97.9), has dipped below its baseline value of 100 into contraction territory, signalling weaker trade growth later in the year. 
 
On the other hand, most other barometer components have risen above the trend. Transport-related indices, including air freight (104.3) and container shipping (107.1), reflect increased movement of goods. The automotive products index (105.3) is also above trend due to resilient vehicle production and sales. 
 
The electronic components index (102.0) has climbed above trend after underperforming in 2023 and 2024, while the raw materials index (100.8) shows only modest growth, just above baseline. 
 
World merchandise trade volume growth moderated in Q4 2024 but is likely to rebound. The WTO Secretariat’s recent global trade outlook and statistics projected stable trade growth of 2.7 per cent for 2025 under a low-tariff scenario reflecting policy conditions at the start of the year and ­-0.2 per cent contraction under actual policies in place as of mid-April.