Goods trade growth appears to have slowed in the second half of 2025, following a surge in H1, driven by frontloading of imports ahead of expected tariff hikes and by rising demand for AI-related products, according to the latest World Trade Organisation (WTO) Goods Trade Barometer.
The overall barometer index fell to 101.8 in September, down from 102.2 in June and below the quarterly trade volume index representing actual merchandise trade developments through Q2.
The barometer, which typically predicts trade developments two to three months ahead, also remained above its baseline value of 100, which suggested that trade volume was likely to grow more slowly in Q4, but remained above trend.
The Goods Trade Barometer is a composite leading indicator for world trade, providing real-time information on the trajectory of merchandise trade relative to recent trends.
Barometer values greater than 100 are associated with above-trend trade volumes, while barometer values less than 100 suggest that goods trade had either fallen below trend or would do so soon.
The barometer’s component indices are all above their common baseline value of 100 except for the agricultural raw materials index (98.0), which has been in contraction since the start of the year.
While still above trend, the indices for air freight (102.7) and container shipping (101.7) had seen their values decline over the last three months, indicating a cooling off in the transportation of goods worldwide.
Meanwhile, the indices for automotive products (103.0) and electronic components (102.0) remained constant over the same period.
The forward-looking new export orders index (102.3) surpassed the baseline value of 100 in the second quarter following some earlier volatility, pointing to sustained momentum in global exports.
On balance, the indices point to a moderation in the pace of global trade growth.
According to the World Trade Organisation’s (WTO) most recent trade forecast in October, trade volume growth in 2025 is expected to be around 2.4 per cent, although there is considerable upside potential if demand for AI-related products remains strong.
