The African Development Bank (AfDB) has warned that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East could weaken Nigeria and the rest of Africa’s economic growth, with potential losses of up to 1.5 per cent if the crisis persists beyond six months.

The bank’s Chief Economist, Kelvin Urama, made this known yesterday at the launch of the 2026 Africa’s Macroeconomic Performance and Outlook (MEO) report.

The bank noted that while the immediate impact may be moderate, the shock adds pressure to an already-fragile outlook marked by rising debt, declining foreign investment and reduced development assistance.

Urama said the scale of the impact would largely depend on the duration of the conflict, with longer disruptions posing greater risks to the continent’s economic stability.

The AfDB warned that, in the short term, the effect of the conflict may be limited, but a prolonged crisis could significantly weaken growth across the continent.

Growth, according to the bank, could decline by 0.2 percentage points if the conflict lasts up to three months. The bank further stated that Africa’s economy was facing mounting pressures, including weak foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, declining official development assistance (ODA) and broader global economic instability.

Despite the challenges, the bank has maintained its growth projections at 4.3 per cent for 2026 and 4.5 per cent for 2027.

The ongoing conflict has disrupted global energy markets, pushing up oil prices and creating mixed outcomes for African economies. While oil-exporting countries may benefit from higher prices, the broader impact has been inflationary, increasing the cost of living across the continent.

Rising oil prices have led to higher fuel, food, and fertiliser costs, while 29 African countries, including Nigeria, have recorded currency depreciation due to inflationary pressures.

Stressing that Africa’s fiscal position remains under strain, the bank added that public debt reached $1.9 trillion in 2024 while debt servicing accounted for over 31 per cent of government revenues.

“Seven countries are in debt distress, with 13 at high risk. External financing conditions are also tightening and FDI flows declined by 42 per cent in H1 of 2025.

Also, cuts in foreign aid are threatening funding for health, education and social programmes. Overall, the combination of rising costs, weakening currencies and constrained external financing underscores the growing vulnerability of African economies to global shocks,” he said.