The World Trade Organisation (WTO) Director-General, Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, has urged Africa to fundamentally rethink its development trajectory and move away from aid dependency towards a trade and investment-driven model that positions the continent as a global economic powerhouse.

Speaking at the 66th Annual Conference of the Nigerian Economic Society (NES), the former Nigerian Finance Minister argued that current global trade disruptions present an unprecedented opportunity for Africa to transition “from the margins to the mainstream” of international commerce.

In an address delivered virtually to Nigerian economists and policymakers in Abuja, Okonjo-Iweala painted a stark picture of the changing global economic landscape, noting that traditional development aid is over.

“Leading traditional donors have slashed support and are diverting funds to other priorities, from refugee resettlement to rearmament,” she explained, citing the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) data showing global aid flows fell by seven per cent in real terms in 2024, with Africa’s share of official development assistance dropping by 11 percentage points over the preceding decade.

She emphasized that while aid remains necessary for global public goods like climate adaptation, it was never sufficient to bridge Africa’s development gap.

The UN Economic Commission for Africa estimates a $1.3 trillion annual investment shortfall for the continent to meet sustainable development goals, surpassing last year’s $212 billion in global aid spending.

Central to Okonjo-Iweala’s argument is Africa’s possession of three critical assets the world increasingly needs: a young workforce, abundant arable land, and mineral resources essential for the green energy transition.

On demographics, she highlighted UN projections showing Africa’s population will reach 2.5 billion by 2050, representing over a quarter of the global total. Sub-Saharan Africa’s working-age population is set to expand while those in East Asia and Europe shrink, potentially making the region home to 22 per cent of the world’s workforce by mid-century.

“The continent’s young, increasingly educated, tech-savvy workforce will be an opportunity for Africa and for the world,” she declared. Regarding agricultural potential, Okonjo-Iweala noted that Africa possesses two-thirds of the world’s uncultivated arable land —approximately 900 million hectares. She argued the continent should not only achieve food self-sufficiency, potentially saving the nearly $100 billion currently spent on food imports, but should help feed the world.

On natural resources, she pointed to Africa’s control of an estimated 30 per cent of minerals critical for the low-carbon energy transition, including nearly half of global cobalt and manganese reserves, alongside substantial deposits of natural graphite, copper, nickel, and lithium.

While acknowledging that global goods trade volumes are projected to grow by only 0.9 per cent in 2025, well below the previously expected 2.7 per cent due to U.S. tariff actions, Okonjo-Iweala argued this creates openings for African economies.

“The push by many countries and companies to reduce risks by diversifying away from over-reliance on China creates opportunities for Africa to attract labour-intensive manufacturing,” she explained, referencing economist Justin Yifu Lin’s “flying geese” theory of industrial migration.

The WTO DG noted that despite protectionist rhetoric, 72 per cent of global goods trade still operates under basic WTO most-favoured nation terms, providing stability within the current uncertainty.

She highlighted existing African success stories that demonstrate the continent’s potential. According to the African Development Bank, 11 of the world’s 20 fastest-growing economies in 2024 were African, including Ethiopia (averaging 7.6 per cent annual growth over the past decade), Rwanda (6.9 per cent) and Côte d’Ivoire (six per cent).

She praised intra-African investment by companies like Nigeria’s Dangote Group, UBA, Access Bank, and Zenith Bank, alongside South Africa’s Shoprite and MTN, as evidence of growing continental integration.

In technology, she highlighted Africa’s leadership in mobile money, with the GSM Association reporting the continent has more mobile money accounts than any other region, adding $190 billion to sub-Saharan Africa’s GDP in 2023.