Special Adviser to the President on Economic Affairs, Dr Tope Fasua, said economic reforms are already delivering tangible improvements across key sectors, with agriculture, manufacturing and services collectively contributing about 87 per cent of national output.

Speaking yesterday at the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) 2026 Mid-year Economic Review and Outlook Conference in Lagos, Fasua projected gross domestic product (GDP) to reach approximately N530 trillion by the end of the year.

Fasua noted that while inflation has moderated to 15.9 per cent, foreign reserves are expected to rise to $58 billion, attributing the projections to reforms and policies supporting local industrialisation.

He disclosed that tax revenue grew by 49 per cent year-on-year during the half-year (H1) 2026, with the country recording 12 consecutive quarters of trade surpluses, driven by rising exports from manufacturers and agribusinesses.

According to him, the reforms have strengthened domestic investment, improved capital market performance, expanded manufacturing activities and diversified exports, although challenges relating to inflation, employment and security require sustained policy attention.

Delivering a presentation on Nigeria’s financial and foreign exchange markets, Chief Economist at FirstBank Group, Dr Chinwe Egwim, projected continued economic expansion in the second half (H2) of the year, supported by stronger macroeconomic fundamentals and improving investor confidence.

She identified five major developments that shaped financial markets during H1 to include a moderation in inflation, the monetary policy rate (MPR) remaining at 26.5 per cent, improved liquidity in the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) and stronger performance of the equities market.

Egwim noted that exchange rate stability has improved while NFEM daily transactions have strengthened significantly, with several trading sessions exceeding $500 million and approaching $1 billion.

She projected GDP growth of between 4.1 and 4.3 per cent in H2, driven by continued expansion in the ICT and financial services sectors alongside improved oil production.

She also forecast that external reserves would remain between $50-53 billion, with the exchange rate trading from N1,350 to N1,450/$1, assuming oil prices average $85 per barrel and production reaches between 1.7 million and 1.8 million barrels per day.

While acknowledging that inflation remains above desired levels, Egwim advised businesses to remain disciplined in investment planning, adopt prudent treasury management strategies and continue factoring inflation and exchange rate assumptions into pricing and procurement decisions.

Also speaking, Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), Dr Muda Yusuf, called for the implementation of a comprehensive industrial policy built around manufacturing competitiveness as the foundation of long-term economic transformation.

Presenting a paper on ‘Nigeria’s Industrial Policy, Manufacturing Competitiveness and Economic Transformation’, Yusuf argued that the country’s Industrial Policy 2025 represents a significant shift from previous approaches by focusing on coordinated structural reforms rather than isolated incentives.

He recommended a five-pillar strategy for strengthening Nigeria’s manufacturing sector. They are competitive production costs, productivity and innovation, competitive value chains, export competitiveness and strong institutions and governance.

The conference brought together government officials, economists, financial experts and business leaders to assess the country’s economic performance and outlook, with speakers expressing cautious optimism that said reforms may be laying the foundation for sustainable growth despite lingering macroeconomic challenges.

LCCI President, Leye Kupoluyi, said the conference was taking place at a defining moment against a backdrop of global uncertainty, supply chain disruptions, geopolitical tensions, tariff wars, fluctuating oil prices and growing food security concerns.

According to him, businesses, more than ever, require reliable economic intelligence and policy insights to make informed investment decisions in an increasingly volatile global environment.

He reaffirmed the chamber’s commitment to advocating for improved ease of doing business, regulatory efficiency, stronger support for micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs), enhanced trade facilitation, industrial competitiveness, digital transformation, innovation and skills development.