Supply chain and procurement expert, Arogundade Oluwasegun, has said Nigeria’s growing trade alignment with China and Middle Eastern countries must be deliberately structured to deliver real economic value at home, warning that changing trade partners alone will not improve living standards.

In recent years, Nigeria’s economic engagement has increasingly tilted eastward, with China and Gulf nations playing stronger roles in infrastructure financing, energy transactions and logistics investments. While the development reflects a pragmatic response to global economic realities, analysts say the benefits remain largely invisible to ordinary Nigerians.

According to Arogundade, the true measure of trade success lies not in new partnerships, but in the strength of domestic supply chains.

“Trade alignment on its own does not create prosperity. Only strong, well designed local supply chains can translate international trade into jobs, stable prices and reliable availability for Nigerians,” the procurement expert stated.

He noted that much of Nigeria’s current trade with China and Middle Eastern countries remains heavily import driven and project centric. Finished goods are imported, large infrastructure projects are executed, while raw materials, particularly energy, are exported with minimal local processing.

“In supply chain terms, Nigeria is positioned at the ends of global networks, extraction and consumption, while missing the value creating middle of processing, assembly and supplier aggregation,” Arogundade explained.

The expert said this structural gap explains why employment gains remain limited, prices unstable and many local businesses unable to scale.

On energy trade, the expert stressed the need for Nigeria to move beyond crude export arrangements to local conversion activities such as refining, petrochemicals and fertiliser production.

He said: “A successful energy pivot must convert barrels into jobs. When refining, petrochemicals and fertiliser production happen locally, fuel supply stabilises, packaging inputs become cheaper and downstream prices begin to ease.”

He added that while Gulf capital and Chinese engineering capacity could support such investments, contracts must prioritise local fabrication yards, maintenance hubs and feedstock processing.

Food inflation, he noted, is another area where weak supply chains continue to hurt households. According to him, Nigeria can benefit from Middle Eastern logistics expertise and Chinese equipment manufacturing only if cold chains, storage facilities and processing centres are developed close to farming clusters.

Arogundade said: “The real impact comes when food is processed and stored locally. Shorter and better managed supply chains reduce post harvest losses and protect consumers from seasonal price spikes.”

On manufacturing, he argued that trade relations with China should not reinforce Nigeria’s role as an import market, but instead position the country as a regional production platform.

“Selective localisation, assembly, components and packaging, can move Nigeria into tier two manufacturing,” he said. “But this requires incentives tied to real local content, supplier development and logistics reliability.”

According to him, factories play a critical role in job creation by anchoring demand for labour, transport, power and professional services.

Arogundade also highlighted pharmaceuticals and fast moving consumer goods as sectors where local formulation and packaging could significantly improve supply stability.

“When quality control, packaging and last mile distribution are anchored locally, shelves stay stocked and prices become more predictable,” he said.

On logistics infrastructure, he warned that investments should be judged by performance rather than visibility.

“Ports, rail and trade corridors only matter if they deliver speed and certainty. If clearance times and haulage costs remain unpredictable, any trade advantage is passed directly to consumers through higher prices,” he said.

Looking ahead, the supply chain expert said Nigeria does not face a choice between Eastern and Western partners, but between symbolism and substance.

“Nigeria must choose between trade optics and supply chain depth,” he said. “If this pivot builds local production, reliable logistics and stable demand, Nigerians will feel it in jobs and prices. If not, it will remain visible in statistics but invisible in daily life.”

He stated that while trade realignment may be relatively easy, sustainable prosperity depends on deeper structural reforms.

“Trade realignment is easy. Supply chain transformation is hard, but only the latter delivers lasting prosperity,” Arogundade added.