Nigeria sustained its compliance with the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) production target in July, even as disruptions at major deepwater fields exposed continued weaknesses in the country’s oil production landscape.

Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) showed that the country produced an average of 1.505 million barrels per day (mbpd) of crude oil in July 2026, slightly above its 1.5mbpd OPEC quota.

When condensate production of 0.17mbpd is included, total output stood at 1.67mbpd during the month. July marked the third consecutive month in which Nigeria achieved the OPEC quota, indicating a measure of recovery in crude production after years of output constraints.

However, the latest figures also showed that the improvement remains fragile. Combined crude and condensate production fell by about four per cent from the 1.735mbpd recorded in June.
The NUPRC attributed the decline to operational challenges at the Erha and Akpo fields, which affected production during the month.

“These disruptions constrained production volumes and contributed significantly to the overall reduction in national crude oil output.”

The commission said most other producing assets remained relatively stable, with operators taking measures to sustain production and limit the effect of operational difficulties.
A closer look at terminal-level figures, however, showed significant differences in performance across the sector.

Bonny emerged among the stronger performers, with combined crude and condensate production increasing from about 244,870 barrels per day (bopd) in January to 303,720 bopd in July, after reaching a peak of 318,280 bopd in June.

Forcados recorded an even stronger recovery. Production rose from 167,190 bopd in March to 322,340 bopd by July, making it one of the major contributors to the country’s improved output.
Cawthorne Channel also recorded substantial growth, with production more than doubling from 12,340 bopd in January to 27,830 bopd in July after hitting 33,140 bopd in June.

Condensate production from Agbami followed an upward trajectory, climbing from 54,200 bopd in January to 73,870 bopd in July. The gains at these terminals were, however, accompanied by sharp declines elsewhere, particularly among some deepwater assets. Erha’s production dropped from 70,760 bopd in January to 31,980 bopd in July, representing more than a 50 per cent decline over the period. The sharpest reduction occurred between June and July.

Akpo condensate production also weakened considerably, falling from 50,110 bopd in January to 27,560 bopd in July. Bonga experienced a particularly dramatic disruption early in the year, with output falling from 119,400 bopd in January to just 2,020 bopd in February. Production subsequently recovered, remaining within the range of roughly 92,000 to 104,000 bopd between March and July.

Pennington also recorded a prolonged decline, dropping from 13,860 bopd in January to 2,020 bopd in May before recovering marginally to 5,940 bopd in July. Yoho recorded only 120 bopd in January and reported zero output from February through July, with no explanation provided in the data for the prolonged absence of measurable production.

The contrasting performance across terminals suggests that Nigeria’s latest OPEC compliance does not necessarily reflect a broad-based recovery across the upstream sector. Instead, stronger output from terminals such as Bonny, Forcados and Cawthorne Channel appears to have helped offset losses from several deepwater operations.

With production still vulnerable to operational disruptions, sustaining the recent run of quota compliance could depend heavily on the ability of operators to restore weakened fields and prevent further interruptions across major producing assets.