Again, familiar storm gathering over Kenya ahead 2017

Curiously, all the four Kenya’s presidents are from Kikuyu and Kalenjin tribes. The result so far has been retention of political tensions that almost tore the country apart in 2007, amplified economic, corruption and insecurity concerns.

In the countdown to the Kenyan 2017 general election, only two individuals matter –– President Uhuru Kenyatta and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga, leading the opposition. When these two foes clash, no one is left in doubt that the ordinary Kenyans suffer. On the surface, it appears Kenyans have no choice between the two gladiators; apparently they do, but tribal considerations and egos have sustained other interests in an otherwise multi-tribal country of 47 sharply divided tongues. Kenya is effectively caught between two dynasties who have dominated the political space since the days of their fathers in the early 60s and late 70s.

The average Kikuyu, President Kenyatta’s ethnic group and the largest, sees the President representing his interest. They dominate former Central Province of Kenya and representing over 23 percent of the population. Vice President Williams Ruto is Kalenjin, believed to be the second major ethnic group in Kenya. They are famous for producing most of Kenya’s Olympic champions and of the Province of Rift Valley. Between the two, they form a strong ethnic coalition that the Lou ethnic group of the opposition leader, Odinga, is finding extremely hard to surmount –– as long as politics in Kenya remained ethnically defined. Lou are a relatively smaller ethnic group and could only rely on Luhya for support, Kenya’s third largest ethnic group bordering Uganda. Curiously, all the four Kenya’s presidents are from Kikuyu and Kalenjin tribes. The result so far has been retention of political tensions that almost tore the country apart in 2007, amplified economic, corruption and insecurity concerns.

Kenya continues to slide deeper on corruption index; third most corrupt country in the world, according to a recent report by the PriceWaterCoopers (PwC). The President too alluded to the unfortunate situation when he said, “Kenyans were experts in stealing, whining and perpetuating tribalism.” On the corruption index of Transparency International (TI) for 2015, Kenya ranked 135 out of 168 countries. On the economic front, the economy appears to be on the upward swing, becoming the fifth largest economy in sub-Saharan African with a projected growth rate of over six percent in 2016 and seven percent in 2017, according to a World Bank report. However, like most of its peers in the middle-income status, the economic growth of Kenya has remained non-inclusive as majority are still denied access to social amenities, while wallowing in extreme poverty.

Currently, though, the number one concern of the country is peaceful 2017 election. Specifically, electoral reform in the form juggling the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) as presently constituted is in high demand; without which the opposition vowed no deal and no peace.

Incidentally, the IEBC has also been embroiled in allegations of corruption. Its commissioners have been involved in corruption cases, one of which is called the Chicken gate. Their partners in London have been arrested, but the alleged recipients of the bribe are still in office. During the 2013 general elections, the body allegedly had five different voter registration forms.

The Kenya judiciary is also involved in many scandals, which include allegations of a judge receiving a bribe of $2m.

On May 16, supporters of the Odinga-led Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (CORD) staged one of their weekly demonstrations against the electoral commission. In the accompanying melee and chaos, there was alleged police brutalisation of protesters. At a point, Odinga’s supporters, numbering about a dozen formed a human shield around his white SUV to protect the opposition figure from police gunshots. They alleged plans to assassinate him. In one of the pictures later released, there was what looked like a gunshot crack on the front windshield of Odinga’s vehicle.

The CORD accused the electoral commission of corruption, bias and incompetence. The group insists that the nine commissioners of the body must be replaced before the August 2017 election. They had vowed that the demonstration would continue every week until the government agrees to rejig the electoral body. “We have said that we are willing to have dialogue, but as we wait for the outcome from the other side, we will continue to demonstrate because that is our right,” Odinga said before Tuesday agreement to withhold further demonstration.

Stemming from the 2013 general election, the issues at stake, according to the coalition, include allowing electoral commissioners serve their full terms, resign voluntarily, ask the parliament to start the process of removing them or amend the IEBC Act to reconstitute the commission.

But addressing the Kenya Parliament, the IEBC chairman, Mr. Issack Hassan, ruled out resigning. He declared that he and his commissioners have not contravened any laws of the country and are legitimately occupying their positions. He vowed they would rather go to jail than step down. A position that finds support in the Kenyatta-led Jubilee Alliance Party. The party disclosed that it would “not allow CORD to sabotage the Kenyan Constitution for selfish gain.” Insisting that it would not kick out the electoral commission “illegally.”

But there are already pressures mounting on IEBC boss, principally from Islamic religious group, which called on him to save the country from further bloodshed by resigning his position. Mr. Hassan is a Muslim and it is expected that he might yield to the pressures of this constituency.

Christian groups have also been holding series of meetings with political leaders in order to stave off possible re-enactment of 2007 violent confrontations, which cost the country over 1,100 lives and billions of shillings. But while these talks are ongoing and the weekly demonstration on the streets of Nairobi have been suspended to pave way for dialogue and reconciliation, very few people are truly convinced about the merits, or otherwise, of positions of the two principal coalitions. And following in the tribal-based political configuration of the country, the only option left for the Odinga group may yet be a resort to drawing more support from Western Kenya and the Coastal Region. The only time such tribal coalition worked successfully was when Kenya’s second president, Daniel Arap Moi, was ousted in 2002.

However, it is yet to be seen how Odinga can gain the confidence of these other regions. Kenya is presently steeped in corruption and economic challenges than in 2002. “This time, it is going to be very difficult because, in as much as Raila (Odinga) is working with representatives from other regions, some of them don’t have full control of their regions,” a member of Kenya’s Civil Society Organisation (CSO) told The Guardian recently. “If they do not agree to any workable arrangement in the coming days, the weekly demonstration may be back and more lives lost,” a media source said.

While many politicians, including those in government, appear to favour electoral reform and changes, what they seem to disagree on may be the method as adopted by Odinga, who even to some of his supporters is seen as “over-bearing.”

The ruling coalition want any process that would lead to changes in the IBEC Act to emanate from the constitutional provisions, which requires Parliamentary endorsement. But seeing that the Jubilee alliance has the majority in the Parliament, the opposition fear that they cannot win. As far as they are concerned, the only option is for President Kenyatta to convince his supporters of the need to change these the commissioners in the event they would not voluntarily resign.