West African regulators have been urged to accelerate harmonised standards and investment frameworks to support the region’s ambition of becoming a refining and low-carbon fuels hub, as Africa’s energy demand is projected to surge in the next two decades.

Executive Secretary of the African Refiners and Distributors Association (ARDA), Anibor Kragha, in a document, said effective and predictable regulation is critical to unlocking refinery and midstream financing across West Africa.

Kragha, speaking on behalf of ARDA’s 80 members, including refiners, marketers, distributors and regulators, stressed that Africa’s energy demand is expected to grow by up to 60 per cent by 2040.

With Nigeria projected to become the world’s third most populous country by 2050, he said domestic refining capacity must expand to meet rising demand for petrol, diesel, jet fuel and LPG.

From a regulatory standpoint, he argued that value retention within Africa depends on clear, bankable frameworks that support long-term investments in refineries, depots, pipelines and storage infrastructure.

Projects submitted to the newly-established African Energy Bank, he noted, must demonstrate effective regulatory cover over their investment horizons, robust project preparation and credible environmental, social and governance (ESG) objectives.

He noted the role of leading Nigerian assets, including the Dangote Refinery and Indorama Eleme Petrochemicals Limited, in reshaping regional supply dynamics.

According to him, increased in-continent refining will reduce import dependence, cushion economies against geopolitical shocks and deepen intra-African trade.

Kragha also stressed the importance of policy coordination through the OPEC-Africa Energy Dialogue, a platform comprising OPEC, African Petroleum Producers Organisation (APPO), African Energy Commission (AFREC) and ARDA. The dialogue, created in 2021 during the tenure of the late Mohammed Sanusi Barkindo as OPEC Secretary-General, aims to strengthen intra-African oil and gas collaboration.

Central to the regulatory push is the West Africa Regulators Forum (WARF), currently chaired by the Authority Chief Executive of Nigeria’s Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).

Kragha said WARF must lead efforts to harmonise fuel specifications, environmental standards and market rules to enable seamless cross-border trade in refined products.

He further urged regulators to anticipate global decarbonisation mandates. The International Maritime Organisation has set a net-zero emissions target for shipping by 2050, while the International Civil Aviation Organisation is driving adoption of sustainable aviation fuels. West African ports and airports, he said, must prepare regulatory pathways for methanol, ammonia, hydrogen and sustainable aviation fuels to retain competitiveness.

Kragha noted that Nigeria’s ambition to become a West African refining hub must extend beyond conventional fuels to “refining hubs of the future”, anchored on regulatory certainty, integrated infrastructure and open, competitive markets capable of supporting both energy security and transition objectives.

According to the Stakeholder Democracy Network (SDN), high-sulphur fuels significantly increase air pollution, driving higher rates of respiratory disease and cancers and cutting life expectancy by up to five years. Moreover, with Belgium and the Netherlands banning exports of dirty fuel to West Africa, pollution risks are being recycled within the region.

In April last year, NMDPRA admitted after a publication by S&P Global that it altered diesel sulphur content from 200 parts per million (ppm) to around 650 ppm to accommodate domestically produced diesel, which exceeds the 200 ppm cap.

Africa’s persistent exposure to dirty fuels reflects a structural failure of regulation rather than a lack of policy intent.

As Kragha had disclosed, the continent currently operates with 11 permissible sulphur grades for gasoil/diesel, ranging from 10ppm to an alarming 10,000ppm and 12 grades for gasoline, up to 2,500ppm.

This extreme regulatory fragmentation has distorted regional trade, encouraged fuel dumping and undermined pan-African investment frameworks designed to promote cleaner markets. In effect, Africa has become a regulatory patchwork where the weakest standard often prevails.

This fragmentation is compounded by prolonged institutional delay. Despite more than a decade of consultations, the Clean Fuels Roadmap, proposing harmonised AFRI-6 standards of 10ppm sulphur by 2030, remains stuck at the African Union Commission’s Permanent Representative Council. The absence of binding, continent-wide standards leaves national regulators to manage competing pressures of fuel supply, refinery economics and political expediency, often at the expense of public health.