‘Africa may face severe food insecurity if production declines by 2050’

A new study has predicted that food production worldwide could decline up to 14 per cent by 2050, with an increase of up to 1.36 billion people experiencing severe levels of food insecurity.

According to the study, food production across the globe is projected to decline significantly, with sub-Saharan Africa facing a drop of 8.2 per cent to 11.8 per cent.14.7 per cent for Australia and 19.4 per cent for some parts of Central America.

Overall, Africa is the most threatened in terms of severe food insecurity because of reductions in the continent’s food production due to water and heat stress and because of the projected increase in Africa’s population by 2050. Other regions with substantial increases in severe food insecurity include the Middle East, South Asia and Central America.

Climatologists Tom Kompas, Tuong Nhu Che and Quentin Grafton from the Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis and the Centre for Environmental and Economic Research at the University of Melbourne in a recent paper in Scientific Reports identified food insecurity, water scarcity and rising temperatures as major risks to food production worldwide.

The concern stems from a combination of issues such as increased water extraction across various sectors, particularly for irrigated agriculture putting a strain on freshwater resources.

The study utilised a modeling approach known as Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs). These models predict a rise in food insecurity driven by several factors such as population growth along with dietary shifts towards more resource-intensive foods and additional pressure on food systems.

“A decrease in agricultural output causes a reduction in global food production (measured in total energy for nutrition) that, in turn, increases the number of people (millions) with severe food insecurity. GTAP-DynW provides these measures as model output for all climate change scenarios,” the study results indicated.