YEAR 2016 appears to hold surprises and socio-political convulsions. And so, the next 12 months promise to unfold as catacombs of political convulsions.

From the look of things, the two outstanding parties — Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) — might witness some tricky developments in the year that could threaten their existence and cohesion.

For the PDP, the impact of its loss of power in March of 2015 left it not only traumatised, but the internal schisms that challenge its organisation and functional procedures, became more defined.

And as the party reeled from the devastating blow of electoral misfortune, the challenge of playing the opposition presented fresh trials. From the blame game of finger pointing at those perceived to have been responsible for the fall from the pinnacle of power to the pit of opposition, the party failed to have a fresh look at its foundational structures and processes, especially its formative testaments.

Ahmed Gulak served as special adviser to the former President Jonathan on political matters. The Adamawa-born politician was among those who ran away from the cabinet to try their lucks at various elective contests. The rate at which former cabinet members left office at the dying days of the administration, not minding their electoral weight and worth, betrayed some latent force of possible loss of faith in the future of the party.

Like the former image tender of the administration, Mr. Labaran Maku, Gulak failed to clinch the PDP governorship in his state. Unlike Maku, however, Gulak did not quit the PDP to pursue his political ambition on another platform; rather he stayed back, perhaps to help resurrect it.

Whether he was displaying partisan loyalty or in a bid to get the party to its failing points, Gulak dragged PDP to court, searching for judicial interpretation of the party’s Constitution as it relates to the office of an acting national chairman. The former presidential aide reasoned that apart from offending the zoning balance envisaged by the framers of the PDP Constitution, the elevation of Mr. Uche Secondus to the office of acting national chairman, after the national chairman, Dr. Adamu Mu’azu, was forced to step aside; the action infringes on the Constitution.

APC: Lying Low, Lying More
ONE of the basic questions the ruling APC would answer for Nigerians through responsible performance and obedience to Constitutional dictates, is their unaffected belief in democracy.

Having succeeded in showing its rival PDP as party of impunity and corruption, APC has a big challenge on its hands to show that it could fare better in power. The formation of the party remains an unfinished project. While the party was yet to elect a chairman of its board of trustees, it has the additional burden of filling the seats vacated by some members of its National Working Committee (NWC), appointed into the federal cabinet.

The various intrigues that stalled the election of the BoT chairman would play out this year and it should be expected that the posturing by some of the leaders for 2019 would define the calculations and contest for the exalted seat.

Should APC settle for zoning or outright all comers’ election to select the BoT chairman or continue to leave the position vacant so as to avoid the possible implosion it may trigger? But even if the party decides to exclude the two elephants — Asiwaju Bola Tinubu and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar — from the BoT contest, how far could it go in ensuring that their surrogates do not end up as contestants?

APC leaders might be embroiled in series of consultations to decide the rationale of fielding its former interim national chairman, Akande, as the BoT Chairman. But the roadblock the party would run into in the event of such possibility is whether the Southwest merits that position in addition to occupying the post of vice president and deputy speaker of the House of Representatives? Would the party see in the vacant office of chairman BoT a unique opportunity to factor in the Southeast into the party?

If APC succeeds in surmounting the challenges posed by the vacant office of BoT chairman, another area that might throw up new concerns is in the administration of party discipline. On this score the party would be confronted with rhetorical question: who own APC, the members or the leaders? The party may be repeating PDP’s mistakes if it continues to drive the party from the apron strings of its governors. Recent developments in Kaduna and Edo, give more than a passing hint to the possibility that APC governors may exert unbridled influence to undermine democratic freedom in the party.

In Edo State, for instance, Governor Adams Oshiomhole wielded the big stick against the chairman of Oredo Local Council, Mr. Osaro Obazee, on trumped up allegations.
Obazee told journalists that not only does Governor Oshiomhole lack the power to suspend him or control of local government council, only the Edo State House of Assembly or the legislative council of Oredo council could take such action.

But the side of Obazee’s travail that portends a sinister move is his claim that the comrade governor was punishing him, because of his closeness to a governorship aspirant, Pastor Ize-Iyamu. “Many people reported me to the governor; they said I refused to severe my relationship with Ize-Iyamu. They also claimed that I was compromised to work for the PDP during the 2016 election,” Obazee had declared. Without sounding apologetic about his democratic liberty and constitutional rights, the embattled council chairman added: “If the APC brings a candidate I do not know and that I do not believe in, I will support Pastor.”

As if the suspension in Edo was a cue, Kaduna State governor, Malam Nasir El-Rufai, engineered the suspension of Senator Shehu Sani, for what the state APC described as gross misconduct and anti-party activities.

The letter from the Tudun Wada conclave of the party to Sani dated December 27, accused the senator of making disparaging statements that violate “the rules of engagement of the party, factionalising the party, and engaging in anti-party activities,” especially, by criticizing the policies of El-Rufai.

Similar to what is playing out in Edo, it is apparent that governors own the APC structures in their respective states, an offence for which the party labeled PDP as undemocratic and instance of acts of impunity. As APC changes gear in its attempt to give political leadership in the country, how far it curtails the excesses of state governors and oils the wheels of internal democracy in the party would determine how far it is prepared to walk the talk of its change mantra.

It could be recalled that Sani contested the party’s governorship ticket in Kaduna, but according to him, he had to step down for El-Rufai as a sign of sacrifice for the success of the party in the state. But no sooner was the governor sworn into office than Sani rekindled the APC tactics of affronting constituted authorities. The senator was vociferous in condemning el-Rufai’s face off with beggars and the demolition of illegal structures in the state. For daring to stand tall on the party’s methodologies, Sani had to be given the bitter pill of suspension for eleven months, which removes him from the scene when major issues relating to the party would be trashed.

In the Kogi and Bayelsa governorship elections, APC showed by its rancorous primaries that it understudied PDP’s tactics. Until he kicked the bucket, Prince Abubakar Audu’s nomination was a subject of recriminations, as his rivals claimed that the party worked towards an envisaged answer during the primary election conducted by the Kaduna State governor.

Then in Bayelsa, Edo State governor, who was charged with the initial conduct of the governorship primary, announced to the whole world that thugs and militants wielding AK47 guns were transformed to delegates. Despite Oshiomhole’s alarm, the supplementary primary went ahead to produce the same candidate, thereby feeding the impression that prior to the primary, there was an anointed flag bearer.

In Ondo and Edo, APC would once more face the challenge of nominating governorship candidates. The process it chooses to adopt would show whether the party is well heeled with the tenets of democracy. The outcomes of the party’s primaries in the two adjoining states would impact on the party’s image and progress for the rest of the year.

And from what Oshiomhole has shown through the suspension of some council chairmen, his desire to impose a preferred candidate on the party seems to defy negotiation. If the Kaduna complaint of anti-party activities against the senator representing Kaduna Central is anything to go by, APC may witness a plethora of such cases as the year progresses. Whether the stick approach would enact a kind of massive defection to PDP or the anticipated dark horse political party, is left to be seen. When these tribulations ensue, the party may try denial or decide to lie low.

The struggle for the control of APC structure would be on high gear in 2016. Having achieved the dethronement of PDP, the various tendencies that came together to form APC may begin the gradual retreat to their former platforms.

Sources said that the recent visit of PDP governorship candidate of Adamawa, Malam Nuhu Ribadu, to Bisi Akande was ostensibly to explore ways of rejigging the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN).

That meeting was a veritable indication that the country will see new political alliances and collaborations towards the buildup to the 2019 election. Though, APC stalwarts find it hard to discuss 2019 in the open, their opinions are divided on whether President Muhammadu Buhari should be supported to run for a second term. While some party men who want to latch on the President’s coattails to realise their ambitions in 2019 approve of a second term for him, others insist that the circumstances that gave the president massive party backing would no longer be there in 2019.

Yet there are unconfirmed speculations that there was a resolution for the president to do just one term and leave the scene. Those who hold the opinion that there is a pact recall how the president himself had announced his disinterest in further contest of the presidential poll in 2011. It is this open space expected in 2019 that would ignite the convulsions in APC. The foundation for that shakeup would no doubt take root this year!

PDP: Grumbling To The Gulag
FOR the PDP, 2016 would mark its final spasms set off by its loss of power after sixteen years. The national convention of the party expected in the first quarter is a possible tipping point to the internal complaints about the way the party is run.

The attempt by the present crop of leaders in the party to retain their eminent position and ward off the grumbling of some of the founding fathers would further test the unity of the party.
The founding fathers maintain that the party deviated from its foundational path due to the excesses of the present leaders. And amid this disputation, some influential party stalwarts occupying various elective positions that want to cross over to the ruling party would tend to complicate things further so as to find justification to defect.

The planned online registration may not receive practical worth in the consideration of who votes or does not vote at the congresses and convention. Sources disclosed that some party chieftain that mooted the idea of a name change for the party are also engaging in discussion about a possible movement to a new platform that would be acceptable to other possible like-minds that could be dislodged from APC.

Recently, when the President of the Senate, Senator Bukola Saraki, eulogised his Deputy, Senator Ike Ekweremadu, as the epitome of patriotism and a perfect model to be emulated by other politicians. Many observers wondered if Saraki has forgotten that he has an unfinished battle with some ambitious elements in the APC.

Yet others interpreted that his bold endorsement of Ekweremadu’s position and the way he emerged as the second in command in the present Senate, suggests that a grand plan was afoot to forge new political alliances for the future.

Speaking during a civic reception and thanksgiving organised in honour of Ekweremadu at Mpu, Enugu State, Saraki added: “He is the type of Nigerian we will want to continue to serve. He only sees things for the good of Nigeria, I am grateful to be working with you and I will continue to assure you that we will continue to work closely for the interest of this great country.”

2016 is a very auspicious year for PDP. The party has a lot to contend with as it tries to reengineer its structures. The ongoing expose about the handling of the $2.1bn earmarked for arms supply has done much to dent the image of the party before Nigerians. How the party handles the forthcoming national convention, the first after its fall from the zenith of power and influence, would determine whether it survives or goes under.

And should the federal government make good its avowals that those found guilty in the Dasukigate arms scandal would go to jail, the imprisonment of PDP chieftains would serve as a constant reminder to Nigerians that the party did not mean well for the country. The fact that the party has tried to distance itself from its members enmeshed in the arms scandal, is a pointer of what to come.

Since a political party is as good as its reputation, PDP may suffer great backlash from the arms scandal investigation report and trial. When that happens many more would quit the party, leaving its carcass for the strong and obdurate.

PDM Versus Search For New
Special Purpose Vehicle
THE arguments over the rationale for the registration of the Shehu Musa Yar’Adua’s political machinery known as Peoples Democratic Movement (PDM), as a political party within the threshold of the 2015 general election, died down immediately some of the members in PDP discovered that Vice President Atiku Abubakar, was not contesting the presidency on it. But there are indications that the registration was in readiness for the future.
The way young Moses Siasia waved the flag of the party in the Bayelsa governorship shows that with good packaging and presence of political investors, PDM could be a party to watch.
Could it be the next choice destination for former PDP stalwarts? What happens to Atiku within the APC platform as well as speculation about a possible second term, would determine whether PDM would take a front row in the political calibrations of 2016. The bad weather reports about APC and PDP makes PDM look attractive.

INEC: Challenge of Sustaining
Credibility
THE groundswell of opposition to Amina Zakari’s ascendance to the office of Acting National Chairman of the Independent national Electoral Commission (INEC) took the shine off the appointment of Professor Mahmood Yakub as the substantive INEC chairman.

Many of those who opposed Zakari for not only being remotely related to President Buhari, but also, on account of her expired tenure, lost vim in scrutinising Prof. Yakub, his competence and initiatives for sustaining the flashes of credibility and impartiality brought about in the commission by Prof. Attahiru Jega.
Ever since he mounted the saddle, Prof. Yakub is yet to make a categorical statement about his options to isolate INEC from the charges of partiality and new initiatives to stem the tide of subversion of electoral process.

Kogi and Bayelsa governorship elections did much to expose Prof. Yakub’s readiness for the job. As appellate courts and the apex court continue to nullify elections and order reruns, INEC and its national chairman would be further tested. The INEC should address the issue of use of incidence forms during failure or malfunction of the card readers. Late arrival of sensitive election material featured prominently in the declaration of the Bayelsa governorship election inconclusive.

The Ondo and Edo governorship elections offer great opportunity for the commission to finetune its strategies towards Anambra 2017 and the ultimate 2019 election!