• Fleet capacity drops by 65% in four years despite new airlines
• Harmattan haze to disrupt operations, slow airlines’ performance
The local air transport sector is heading into the yuletide peak period with a chaotic travel schedule and mass disruptions on the horizon. The pessimism is not unrelated to the state of the equipment in coping with the high demands of the Christmas period. While the local airlines are battling a record-high fleet depletion that has reduced the number of serviceable aircraft to 38, the airport’s navigational instruments still lack a guarantee of steady flight operations in the poor visibility of the harmattan season.
Worried by the double jeopardy, industry watchers said that the development will push the system beyond its limits through December and January, concluding that passengers are headed to one of the most chaotic holiday travel seasons in decades, exposing systemic failures in the country’s air transport system.
Findings by The Guardian showed that the number of active aircraft in the fleet of the 15 scheduled airlines has further depleted to 38, down from about 44 a year ago.
The crisis would be compounded by the deteriorating and unsafe highways, which have turned road travel into a nightmare for the average Nigerian.
About four years ago, the total aircraft in the fleets of the airlines was 107. This dropped to 44 in 2024, only to further slide to 38 this year. That leaves the sector with about 64.5 per cent drop in fleet capacity in less than five years.
Industry data show that 69 aircraft of the scheduled operators are either grounded in the country or in the various maintenance facilities outside Nigeria.
The 64.5 per cent drop in recent years comes despite the steep growth in the number of scheduled airline operators in the country. Similarly, there has been no appreciable improvement in the quality of navigational services, nor have local airlines upgraded their onboard equipment to use the Instrument Landing System (ILS), which would increase their chances of safe flights in poor or zero visibility, typical of the harmattan period.
NAMA, through the Federal Government, has invested in Category II and III ILS systems at major airports, including Lagos and Abuja, which enable landings in reduced visibility.
However, reports indicate intermittent calibration issues, power outages and occasional equipment failures. Besides, some of the CAT III ILS systems have been downgraded to Category II in some airports due to technical problems, reducing low-visibility landing capacity.
Also, not all runways at airports are equipped with advanced ILS, leaving airlines dependent on visual or lower-category approaches. These challenges further exacerbate flight delays and cancellations at airports during adverse weather conditions.
Already, the local air travel industry is not new to flight delays and cancellations. Recent statistics obtained from the Nigeria Civil Aviation Authority (NCAA) indicate that no fewer than 84,902 flights were operated in Nigeria by local and international operators in 2024, with a total of 38,061 flights delayed and 1,320 flights cancelled during the period.
A further breakdown of the statistics revealed that international flights operated by 30 airlines during the period totalled 14,359, while domestic operations by 15 scheduled airlines reached 70,543.
During the period, international airlines experienced 4,826 delays and 131 cancellations, while domestic operators had a total of 33,235 delays and 1,189 cancellations within the same period.
Sources confirmed that most of the flight delays and cancellations in the domestic scene are recorded in December and January of each year, the peak of air travel in Nigeria, especially among domestic operators.
Confirming the decline in fleet capacity, the Chief Financial Officer (CFO) of Aero Contractors, Charles Grant, noted that the aircraft fleet of the entire 15 scheduled airlines in Nigeria has dropped to just 38, while revenue for all the airlines in 2024 was estimated to be between $400 million and $700 million. Earnings per serviceable aircraft within the same period ranged from $10 million to $18 million, supporting 15,200 jobs, which represented 0.01 per cent of the workforce employed by the aviation industry in Nigeria.
According to Grant, as of today, most Nigerian airlines operate with just four to six active aircraft fleets, despite national demand. He said: “That is not a choice – it’s the result of punitive economics. And when aircraft are unavailable, we get the obvious knock-on effects: delays, cancellations, missed connections, poor customer experience and a public that loses confidence in flying local carriers.
“The industry can’t grow when the system punishes scale and availability. Until we fix the inputs, we will keep getting the same output: unreliable service, lost jobs and eroded national competitiveness.”
The former Chief Operating Officer (COO) of Dana Air, Obiukwu Mbanuzuo, said that the majority of flight delays and cancellations during the yuletide season stem from incorrect schedule planning by airlines and poor visibility during the harmattan season.
According to him, during this season, airlines typically schedule block times and turnaround times for flights. Most flights tend to be full and sometimes overbooked, with an increase in checked-in luggage.
With this, he maintained that it would take longer to board and disembark passengers by airlines and their handlers, stressing that all these factors increase turnaround times, which lead to delays for subsequent flights.
Mbanuzuo further stated that he was unsure of the equipment NAMA currently has installed at most airports. He, however, called for a review of the approved weather minima in the regulations for operators by the NCAA.
He added: “For example, if the state weather minima states 800 metres Runway Visual Range and NAMA has the equipment allowing low visibility landing (ILS Cat 3), it still couldn’t be utilised as the state minima remains 800m. So, a review of the regulations is still required.
“Also, imagine a flight that has a turnaround time of one hour on arrival at the destination on the first flight of the day, having an extra 30 minutes added, and this being replicated throughout the day. You could very easily end up with a delay of two hours or more by the departure time of the last flight.
“In addition to all said above, when the harmattan low visibility occurs, this exacerbates an already bad situation, and airlines might decide to start cancelling some flights to protect others as flight crews are bound by duty time limits.”
Also, a former pilot with the defunct national carrier, Capt. Mohammed Badamasi, advised the airlines to use the records of previous flights during the last yuletide period to determine their flight schedule.
Badamasi opined that a standby aircraft should be included in the flight schedule to serve as a relief aircraft in the event of an aircraft being disabled, thereby avoiding disruptions to the flight schedule. He also urged NAMA to work with the airlines to draw a schedule plan for the period to avoid delays and cancellations.
For instance, Badamasi said that if three or more aircraft are scheduled to arrive at Lagos airport at the same time, for instance, NAMA could reschedule the three flights to depart at different times to ensure that the other two flights are not delayed for landing in Lagos, pointing out that this arrangement would save the airlines money and reduce delays.
He advised the airlines to substitute their schedule for the one jointly prepared with NAMA, adding that if an aircraft misses its scheduled departure time, it must reschedule for another time, as another aircraft would be given the allotted time to avoid congestion at busy airports of arrival.
According to him, this is the solution approved by air traffic controllers worldwide during such peak periods. A former Managing Director of NAMA, Nnamdi Udoh, said between 2011 and 2014, there were no flight cancellations during the yuletide because NAMA was “on top of its game”.
Udoh, who was the Managing Director of NAMA between 2011 and 2014 before he was replaced by Ibrahim Abdulsalam, said there was a need to review the weather minima of all the airports to allow flight operations even during poor visibility.
He insisted that modern navigational aids for easy landing and takeoff during adverse weather conditions are now available, and these are also onboard new aeroplanes.
He, however, said that there was a need to review the approved minimum weather level in the regulations for improved air operations, devoid of delays and cancellations.
He added: “NAMA has the instrument landing system; it even had category 3C in its procurement process. Well, I don’t know as of today. Now, the question is how it has been calibrated. If you have a CAT III device, you must calibrate it in accordance with the level of the power supply.
“You cannot have Category III C when there is no prerequisite non-interrupted public power supply. Even with CAT II, we should be able to have aircraft fly seamlessly with the radar. It’s a continuous process for me; it is not a destination. It is a process that we must continue to work on. If it’s on the runway, it is very difficult; the air traffic controllers should be able to get an RVR to enable them, give the pilots precise runway visual range, so that they can fly in,” he said.
To meet the surge in demand during the yuletide season, he said, Nigerian airlines need to increase their current capacity.
He advocated for synergy between airline operators and willing investors to enhance the country’s aircraft fleets, rather than promoting single ownership.
Udoh advised the flying public to plan ahead to avoid disruption of their schedules. An aviation analyst, Frank Oruye, said the yuletide season coincides with the harmattan season, which blows Sahara Desert sand and dust haze across the Sahel all the way to the coast.
Oruye explained that this condition causes a sharp drop in visibility below the published state minima for Nigerian airports, stressing that airports reporting visibility below minima are effectively closed for flight operations until the situation lifts.
Efforts to obtain comments from NAMA’s Managing Director and Director of Public Affairs and Consumer Protection, Ahmed Farouk and Abdullahi Musa, respectively, on the preparedness of the agency for the rush season were unsuccessful. Phone calls and text messages to their mobile lines were not responded to as of press time.
