Fresh data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) have revealed that 2025 was the third warmest year on record, marginally (0.01°C) cooler than 2023 and 0.13°C cooler than 2024, the warmest year on record.

The new findings released yesterday showed that the past 11 years were the 11 warmest on record, as global temperatures from the past three years (2023-2025) averaged more than 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level (1850–1900).

In 2025, half of the global land area experienced more days than average with at least strong heat stress – defined as a ‘feels-like’ temperature of 32°C or above. Heat stress is recognised by the World Health Organisation (WHO) as the leading cause of global weather-related deaths.

The development marks the first time a three-year period has exceeded the 1.5°C limit. Air temperature over global land areas was the second warmest, while the Antarctic saw its warmest yearly temperature on record and the Arctic its second warmest.

ECMWF operates the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) on behalf of the European Commission. Other bodies involved in global climate monitoring –such as the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the United Kingdom Met Office, Berkeley Earth and the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) coordinated the release of the data.

The study noted that global surface air temperature increased (ºC) above the average for the 1850–1900 designated pre-industrial reference period based on the ERA5 dataset, shown as yearly averages since 1940.

According to fifth fifth-generation ECMWF atmospheric reanalysis of the global climate(ERA5) in 2025, the global surface air temperature was 1.47°C above the pre-industrial level, following 1.60°C in 2024, the warmest year on record. Utilising several methods, the current level of long-term global warming is estimated to be around 1.4°C above the pre-industrial level.

Based on the current rate of warming, the Paris Agreement’s limit of 1.5°C for long-term global warming could be reached by the end of this decade – over a decade earlier than predicted based on the rate of warming at the time the agreement was signed.

Record-high yearly temperatures, the study said, were also observed in several other regions, notably in the northwestern and southwestern Pacific, the northeastern Atlantic, far eastern and northwestern Europe and central Asia.

ECMWF Director-General, Dr Florian Pappenberger, said the report confirms that Europe and the world are in the warmest decade on record and that the European Commission’s investment in Copernicus continues to be critical. He noted that preparedness and prevention remain possible but only when action is guided by robust and scientific evidence.

Also speaking, the Head of Earth Observation at the Directorate General for Defence Industry and Space, European Commission, Mauro Facchini, said: “Exceeding a three-year average of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels is a milestone none of us wished to reach, yet it reinforces the importance of Europe’s leadership in climate monitoring to inform both mitigation and adaptation. We expect Copernicus to play an important role in implementing tailored new tools for European climate resilience and risk management.”

Director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, Dr Carlo Buontempo, explained that the fact that the last eleven years were the warmest on record provided further evidence of the unmistakable trend towards a hotter climate.