Fresh concerns have emerged over the credibility of financial data in the electricity market, as industry experts react to the actual size of debts owed to power generation companies (GenCos).

It exposes what analysts describe as a deeper systemic failure in the Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry (NESI).

At the centre of the debate is a wide discrepancy between the Federal Government‘s estimated N3.3 trillion liability and an industry-backed figure of nearly N6 trillion, a gap that experts say goes beyond routine accounting differences.

A power sector professional, Bayode Akomolafe, argued that the divergence reflected a structural breakdown in data governance rather than mere financial disagreement.

“The N3.3 trillion vs N6 trillion ‘dispute’ over the shortfall owed to GenCosis not an accounting gap. It is a data collapse!” he said.

He noted that the Federal Government recently re-baselined receivables from GenCos to N3.3 trillion, covering shortfalls from 2015 to 2025. However, the Association of Power Generation Companies (APGC) has maintained that the actual outstanding obligation is significantly higher.

“The Nigerian Government recently re-baselined receivables to Genco at N3.3 trillion to cover shortfalls from 2015 to 2025. However, the industry representative organisation, APGC (Dr Joy Ogaji), estimates the outstanding obligation at closer to N6 trillion,” he added.

He attributed the discrepancy to longstanding inefficiencies in market operations, including foreign exchange assumption gaps, inconsistent accrual methodologies, governance issues, and fragmented data systems.

Market assumption gaps in FX rate changes over the past decade, operational data mismatch, varying financial approaches to accruals, classifying settlements, and allocating payments based on contractual obligations, governance, and institutional changes, as well as human factors, all play a role,” he stated.

Akomolafe further warned that the absence of a unified data system had led to a complex, non-standardised, non-linear accumulation of liabilities, undermining transparency and investor confidence in the sector.

“Today, NESI operates with huge data asymmetry, OPS data are processed manually, systems visibility is limited, SCADA coverage is incomplete, commercial data is fragmented, and critical data is siloed. It is data asymmetry at scale!” he said.

He stressed that without an integrated and auditable data architecture, disputes over market figures would persist.

“Until NESI operates an integrated, auditable, and transparent data system, every figure will be open to dispute, and every reform will rest on a shaky foundation,” he added.

However, the Managing Director of the Association of Power Generation Companies, Dr Joy Ogaji, pushed back against claims of data opacity, insisting that GenCo invoices were transparent and verifiable under existing frameworks.

Reacting to Akomolafe’s position, Ogaji said: “Very aptly captured. However, the GenCos invoices are well vetted and can be calculated by anyone who understands how PPAs work, looking at the MYTO. It is no rocket science”.

Ogaji maintained that the perceived discrepancies stemmed not from flawed data, but from misinterpretation or the lack of technical understanding.