Nigeria’s headline inflation rate eased marginally to 15.39 per cent in August 2026, but the moderation offered little relief to households as food prices remained nearly 20 per cent higher than a year earlier, underscoring the continuing pressure on consumers’ purchasing power.

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), showed that headline inflation declined from 15.43 per cent in July to 15.39 per cent in August, representing a marginal 0.04 percentage-point reduction.

However, the more immediate monthly price movement provided a stronger indication of easing inflationary pressure, with month-on-month inflation falling sharply to 0.71 per cent in August from 1.57 per cent in July.

Despite the slowdown, the NBS data showed that food remained the dominant driver of inflation, contributing 6.16 per cent to the headline rate, far ahead of restaurants and accommodation services at 1.99 points, transport at 1.64 points, and housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels at 1.30 points.

The biggest concern for households remains food inflation.

Food inflation stood at 19.57 per cent year-on-year in August, meaning food prices were still substantially higher than their levels a year earlier, even though the pace of monthly increases slowed considerably.

On a month-on-month basis, food inflation fell to 1.02 per cent in August from 5.56 per cent in July, a decline of 4.55 per cent.

The NBS attributed the moderation largely to changes in the average prices of commodities including palm oil, carrots, pepper, onions, cassava flour, beef, yam flour, water yam, egusi, fresh ginger, fresh fish, Irish potatoes, wheat grain, frozen chicken and turkey meat.

The implication is that the inflation battle may be entering a period of slower price increases rather than an outright reversal in the cost of living. While consumers may see prices rising less rapidly, the high year-on-year food inflation means that the cost base remains significantly elevated.

The recent second quarter 2026 foreign trade in goods statistics released by NBS showed that agricultural imports increased to N1.20 trillion, up 1.63 per cent year-on-year and a huge 45.43 per cent from Q1 2026, a development which has been criticized by farmers as capable of deepening pressure on domestic food production and the country’s foreign-exchange position.

The report also shows that core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural produce and energy, fell to 13.29 per cent year-on-year in August, compared with 22.93 per cent in August 2025.

More significantly, core inflation recorded a negative 0.06 per cent month-on-month rate, down from 0.15 per cent in July.

This suggests that, outside volatile food and energy components, underlying price pressures weakened during the month.

The development could provide some room for businesses and policymakers to begin looking beyond emergency inflation management towards measures capable of sustaining price stability and restoring household purchasing power.

However, the headline figures masks a significant divergence between urban and rural consumers.

Urban inflation stood at 15.88 per cent year-on-year, while rural inflation was lower at 14.23 per cent.

But the month-on-month figures tell a different story. Urban inflation slowed to just 0.28 per cent, compared with 1.90 per cent in July, while rural inflation accelerated to 1.79 per cent from 0.78 per cent.

The contrasting movement is significant because rural households are generally more exposed to food and agricultural price movements.

On a state by state analysis, the national average also conceals substantial differences across states.

Lagos recorded the highest year-on-year headline inflation at 23.68 per cent, followed by Zamfara at 22.56 per cent and Enugu at 22.06 per cent.

At the other end, Sokoto recorded 2.11 per cent, Kebbi 3.72 per cent and Jigawa 3.81 per cent.

The month-on-month picture was even more dramatic, with Rivers recording the highest increase at 6.92 per cent, followed by Osun at 5.61 per cent and Kano at 5.59 per cent. Anambra, Bauchi and Borno recorded the lowest month-on-month movements, at -8.83 per cent, -7.13 per cent and -7.09 per cent respectively.

Food inflation was particularly severe in some states. Adamawa recorded the highest year-on-year food inflation at 38.85 per cent, followed by Zamfara at 37.96 per cent and Bayelsa at 36.20 per cent.

This means that while the national inflation rate appears to be moderating, millions of households in high-inflation states may still be experiencing a substantially heavier cost-of-living burden.