Census critical, but timing raises suspicion, say stakeholders

Nineteen years since the last census, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu yesterday inaugurated a high-level committee for the forthcoming national population and housing census, tasking the panel to submit an interim report within three weeks.
 
The latest mandate is seen as a bold attempt to break the jinx associated with holding an accurate head count for the country, which the last attempt was 19 years ago, precisely in November 2006.
 
But, despite those lofty benefits, Nigerians are sceptical that a credible headcount could hold at this point of the nation’s socio-political challenges, including economic downturn, insecurity and general apathy to civic undertakings.  
 
Inaugurating the special panel, President Tinubu stressed the pivotal role of a technology-driven process in ensuring credible and verifiable results, noting the need for collaboration among all relevant agencies and stakeholders.
 
He underscored the critical financing factor in the exercise and enjoined the members to look at domestic and even international sources.
 
He stated: “Work with all relevant agencies, including the Ministry of Budget and Economic Planning. This ministry must take charge of this because you cannot budget if you do not know how many there are.
  
“We expect you will touch on the technology area because the census must be technology-driven. Things have changed since the last time that we conducted this exercise. The enumeration must be technology-driven with biometrics and digitalisation.”
 
Earlier, the Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Atiku Bagudu, who chairs the Presidential Committee on Population and Housing Census, assured the committee’s preparedness to deliver its report within the three-week deadline.
 
He recalled President Tinubu’s advice to ministers during their 2023 retreat, during which the president urged them to think creatively and work with the resources available, notwithstanding the harsh economic conditions.
  
The National Population Commission (NPC) Chairman, Nasir Isa Kwarra, who will also serve as the committee Secretary, said the commission has already begun preparations for the national population and housing census in collaboration with the Ministry of Budget and Economic Planning and other relevant stakeholders.
 
“The focus has been on identifying key requirements and laying the groundwork necessary for the President to make an informed decision on the actual conduct of the census,” he stated, reiterating that the NPC remains committed to ensuring a credible, technology-driven enumeration.
  
The eight-member committee also includes the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, the Chairman of the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS), the Director General of the National Identity Management Commission (NIMC), the Principal Private Secretary to the President, and the Senior Special Assistant to the President on Administration and Operations.
 
It is recalled that Nigeria has conducted several censuses over the years. The first census in Nigeria was held in 1866, covering the Lagos Colony. Subsequent censuses were conducted in 1871, 1881, 1891, and 1901. The first nationwide census was in 1921. Other notable censuses include those in 1951/53, 1962 (results cancelled), 1973, 1991, and 2006. The next census, originally scheduled for 2016, was repeatedly delayed and was postponed in April 2023. 
  
The 2023 Nigerian census was postponed primarily due to the government’s transition programme and the post-election mood in the country. The National Population Commission (NPC) aimed to avoid conducting the census during uncertainty following the elections, which could have led to a national crisis.
  
Additionally, technical issues such as incomplete building numbering and counting processes were also cited as reasons for the delay. Against this backdrop, President Bola Tinubu is poised to revisit the issue to break the hiatus 19 years after the exercise was conducted.
 
However, while many have wondered why the President is passionate about Census figures, Presidential aides argue that Tinubu’s renewed focus on census figures stems from the urgent need for accurate data-driven governance and addressing systemic inefficiencies in Nigeria’s development planning.
  
Presidential aides also submit that without precise population data, resource allocation, such as fertiliser distribution and employment programmes, among others, remain suboptimal.
  
Notwithstanding the National Population Commission’s clarification that no official date had been proclaimed for the exercise, the Nigerian parliament has, however, approved NPC’s 2025 budget proposal in January 2025, urging immediate action and emphasising the importance of development and security.
  
The parliament has also urged President Tinubu to prioritise the census, emphasising its urgency for addressing insecurity and reliance on foreign data sources.
  
President Tinubu pledged to ensure accurate and reliable figures from the national census to strengthen development planning and improve Nigeria’s living conditions through more efficient social security. Curiously, however, critics of the exercise have different perspectives on the conduct of the exercise.

FOR INSTANCE, the National Coordinator of the Coalition of Northern Groups (CNG), Jamilu Aliyu Charanchi, questioned the timing and feasibility of conducting a national population census before the 2027 general elections.
 
Also, the Executive Director of the Civil Society Legislative Advocacy Centre (CISLAC), Auwal Musa Rafsanjani, noted that although conducting a population census was critical for national planning and development, many Nigerians are suspicious that the programme could be a veil for political advantages and possible misuse of public funds.
  
Rafsanjani, however, said that regular population data generation is essential for effective governance, especially in a country as complex and diverse as Nigeria.
 
He remarked, “Ideally, we should be able to have a regular census in the country because it will help with planning. It will also help to know different categories of Nigerians in terms of our age, vulnerability, and special needs.
  
“But that has not been happening. That undermines the appropriate application of the programme in the country. So, having a census is important, and it will help with planning the family, you know, itself.
  
“Now, the second issue is whether this is an appropriate time. Well, I think for me, as good as the intention should be, many Nigerians will see this as diversionary, probably political, you know, campaigns, because they will put in a lot of money. And this may not necessarily lead them to do the work.
 
“So, there’s a concern from Nigerians that this is another way of just siphoning public taxpayers’ money, despite the good intention of the assignment or of the census itself. Secondly, it is also about maybe 2027 for the ruling party to know how to position itself.
  
“But outside these two major issues, I think the nation must conduct a regular census. We cannot be moving blindly as a nation. Every country should be able to have an idea of its population.”
   
Speaking with The Guardian, Charanchi wondered why the President Bola Tinubu-led administration is placing undue emphasis on conducting a census when the country is battling numerous crises, from economic crises to insecurity.
  
He said: “You see, the issue of this country is that they have politicised every sector of this country. And, regrettably, the politicians have no respect for anything. And whatever you think is not possible in this country, it might be possible.
 
“And whatever you think is possible, it might be impossible in this country. I wonder why they are giving any priority to the census. Because we have a lot of other things on the ground that are supposed to be settled. The issue of insecurity, the issue of economic hardship. 
  
“Recently, we have seen how killings are becoming the norm in the country. We have seen how a massacre has been conducted in so many parts of the country.”
  
Speaking through the Chief of Staff, Femi Gbajabiamila, the President noted the significance of census exercise in national development, stressing that it ensures accurate economic planning and effective decision-making in healthcare, education, and security, among others.
  
OFFICIALS of the Human Rights Writers Association of Nigeria (HURIWA) submit that successive administrations have not demonstrated sufficient political will to undertake proper scientific, evidence-based and verifiable headcount in the country.
  
According to the National Coordinator, Emmanuel Onwubiko, the mechanisms for headcounts or census ought to have been digitised the data bank of Nigerians should have been digitised, and agencies of government that work on the identity of Nigerians should be working jointly and in a coordinated manner such that it wouldn’t be so much of a problem conducting a census of Nigerians.
  
HURIWA said the problem experienced by citizens for a long time through the politicisation of census exercise is the reason why the country lacks any kind of reliable and verifiable statistics of the population and demographics of Nigerians. 
  
“Census in Nigeria is politicised and often manipulated because there is a lack of patriotism on the part of government officials who often indulge in the bad habit of inflating the population of certain favoured regions, whereas others are under-counted.”
 
In his contribution, an Abuja-based resident, Mr Ikharo Attah, recalls his experience of not being counted in the previous census exercise of 2006, lamenting that the development has led to a loss of trust and interest in the planned process.
  
He maintained that while such experiences can foster disillusionment with governmental efforts and processes, accurate census data remains crucial for proper representation and resource distribution.