2027: Nine million voters must not decide next president for Nigerians, expert warns

Ahead of the 2027 poll, pro-democracy activists have cautioned against the repeat of a situation whereby nine million voters played the decisive role in the election of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in the 2023 presidential poll.

Dr. Otive Igbuzor, who spoke on Tuesday in Abuja at a political dialogue on election credibility thresholds in Nigeria, organized by the African Centre for Leadership, Strategy and Development (Centre LSD), decried the voter apathy that characterized the 2023 presidential poll.

Igbuzor, who is the Executive Director of LSD, remarked that it’s unfortunate that votes from nine million Nigerians, representing 26 percent of the country’s 200 million population, determined the eventual winner of the 2023 presidential poll.

The figure is also a far cry from the estimated 96.3 million registered voters as of August 2022.

This, he said, was in sharp contrast to international best practices, as witnessed in neighboring Ghana, where over 50 percent of registered voters participated in the election of President John Dramani Mahama.

Igbuzor, who insisted that democratic rule remains the best option compared to military rule, said it behooves stakeholders in the electoral process to reverse the situation in the upcoming 2027 poll.

He noted: “So that pillar of our work is very important for us. Why is it that people don’t vote in Nigeria, and what can we do to make them vote? And then the last pillar, pillar four, is monitoring key stakeholders in the electoral process. And this, what we are doing today, is dealing with the credibility of elections.

“So we want to have indices to measure credibility. And our aspiration is that we will create an index, just like we have a poverty index. So if there is an election in the U.S., we go to the U.S. and use the index to measure it. If there is an election in Ghana, we go to Ghana and use the index to measure it. That is our aspiration.”

For Mr. Ezenwa Nwagwu of the Peering Advocacy and Advancement Center in Africa (PAACA), much has been achieved in the electioneering process in the country since the return to democratic rule in 1999.

He cited the deployment of BIVAS, which has curtailed the challenges associated with vote rigging and manipulation, as an inroad recorded within the period under review.

Acknowledging that the adoption of the Justice Uwais recommendation is a welcome development, he remarked that in dealing with the credibility threshold of elections, solutions to be proffered, either administratively or through the legislature, should take cognizance of the contemporary nature of the challenges faced in the electoral system.

A lecturer in the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Nile University of Nigeria, Dr. Iroro S. Izu, canvassed for the development of transparency and accountability checkers to gauge the operational credibility of the key stakeholders in the election process in the country.

The university don also called on the electoral umpire to create more polling units that will make voting centers easier, more convenient, and much more accessible.

Izu said the credibility of an election entails the openness of the system, the conscious assurance of an all-dimensional involvement of different strata and genders of society, making it such that the system is non-discriminatory, non-judgmental, and non-prejudicial, emphasizing predictability, certainty, probity, and measurability of actions, inactions, and reactions vis-a-vis the extant electoral laws and relevant institutional frameworks.

He said traditional rulers and religious leaders should be co-opted into sensitization campaigns and appeals to the consciences of all stakeholders involved in the election business.

He further stated that the law should be guaranteed to ensure the conduct of all elections in one day to avoid the continued subtle disenfranchisement of many as a result of lethargy or voter fatigue.

According to him, it is in everyone’s interest for elections to be conducted in a manner that meets the basic credibility threshold—one built on a system of transparency, accountability, inclusiveness, empathy, accessibility, convenience, security, flexibility, systematism, and predictability.

Izu said: “Transparency and accountability checkers should be developed and used to gauge the operational credibility of the key stakeholders (INEC, political parties, media, security personnel, and voters) in the election enterprise in Nigeria.

“Existing constituencies should undergo new demarcation to create more polling units that will make voting centers easier, more convenient, and much more accessible.

“As recommended by the Mohammed Uwais Electoral Reform Commission, INEC should be unbundled into several independent entities for efficiency and effectiveness, so that one of such entities will deal with election offenses, another will deal with political party conduct, especially in the area of primary elections, and a third entity could be in charge of massive re-orientation of citizens, politicians, security personnel, and other stakeholders.

“Civil Society Organizations with vast experience in election matters should be engaged in the training and retraining of election workers and in election monitoring. INEC, as an impartial player in the election enterprise, could use any legal measure to execute and achieve its mandate.

“INEC should make it an official policy to prioritize the use of Political Science and Statistics graduates in election duties. This is because most times, INEC staffers who engage in questionable dealings during elections do so out of ignorance of how the process should work. It is true that they are trained, but most times the training period is too short, abrupt, and inconclusive.”

In his welcome address, Director of Strategy at Centre LSD, Mr. Itia Otabor, said through the policy dialogue, the Centre aims to identify practical solutions to challenges facing credible elections and develop a roadmap for implementing reforms that will strengthen the integrity of electoral processes.

He said, “We will explore innovative approaches to voter registration, voting systems, and electoral dispute resolution, among other critical areas.

“In order to implement Centre LSD’s approach to election work, the Centre will adopt the electoral cycle approach and embed election-related activities into a holistic cycle, focusing on pre-, during, and post-election phases.”

While some speakers lamented rigging, vote buying, thuggery, and other challenges characterising Nigerian elections, others believed the country has made progress in the election process.

For Ezenwa Nwagwu of the Peering Advocacy and Advancement Center in Africa (PAACA), much has been achieved in the electioneering process in the country since the return to democratic rule in 1999.

He cited the deployment of BIVAS, which has curtailed the challenges associated with vote rigging and manipulation, as an inroad recorded within the period under review.

Acknowledging that the adoption of the Justice Uwais recommendation is a welcome development, he remarked that in dealing with the credibility threshold of elections, solutions to be proffered, either administratively or through the legislature, should factor in the contemporary nature of the challenges faced in the electoral system.