As Nigeria edges toward another election cycle, a number of government critics in the diaspora remain unable to return home, raising fresh concerns over political freedoms and the safety of dissenting voices.

Though more prominent voices like Aisha Yesufu have gone to merge forces with the African Democratic Congress, ADC, others like Oreoluwa Adegbite, a critic of the Lagos State government overtime and whose continued absence has come to symbolise the risks faced by outspoken activists in the country’s evolving political landscape, remain a challenge for the citizenry.

Speaking to the Guardian, Adegbite expressed optimism that one day home would be safe to return to, but not in the interim considering the ruling class present today.

‘I am happy here, even though I believe one day I did return home, but not now, the risks is there, the danger remains, insecurity and many things that the government have not fixed and then individuals like us who condemn the government’ he said.

A consistent critic of the Lagos State government and has publicly opposed alleged electoral malpractice. As a result of his activism, he has been subjected to credible and escalating threats against his life. These threats are not speculative; they are specific and ongoing, and they have forced him into exile for his personal safety.

Mr. Adegbite states that although he hopes to return to Nigeria in the future, doing so at this time would place his life in immediate danger. He explains: “I believe I will return home one day, but not now. The risks are real. The danger remains. People like us who speak out against the government are not safe.”

Information from individuals familiar with his circumstances indicates that Mr. Adegbite is not only at risk from non-state actors but is also known to security agencies. His identity, views, and prior activities have made him a person of interest, significantly increasing the likelihood that he would be detained, targeted, or otherwise harmed upon return.

Given the current political and security environment in Nigeria, Mr. Adegbite cannot safely return. His return would expose him to a high probability of persecution, including unlawful detention, serious harm, or death.

His constant criticism of Lagos political elites has made him remain in exile following what sources describe as credible threats to his life. His situation reflects a broader pattern in which activism, particularly since the 2020 #EndSARS protests, has carried significant personal consequences.
Other prominent voices, including Omoyele Sowore, Rinu Oduala, and Aisha Yesufu, have played key roles in challenging entrenched political structures through advocacy, protests, and voter mobilisation. While some remain active within Nigeria, others have faced harassment, arrests, or sustained pressure linked to their activism.

Human rights organisations have continued to warn about shrinking civic space and ongoing abuses. In recent reports, groups including Amnesty International have documented cases of unlawful detention, extortion, and violence involving security agencies, years after the nationwide protests against police brutality.

The legacy of the #EndSARS movement remains a defining backdrop. The protests, which swept across major cities in October 2020, called for an end to abuses by the now-disbanded Special Anti-Robbery Squad (SARS) and broader reforms within the security sector. However, activists argue that many of the underlying issues persist.

For figures like Adegbite, exile has become a means of survival rather than choice. Associates say his decision to remain outside Nigeria is driven by the need to continue advocacy without exposing himself to immediate harm.

“Exile becomes the only viable option when returning home poses a direct threat,” a source familiar with his situation said, noting that his absence highlights the difficult balance between activism and personal safety.

As the 2027 elections draw closer, analysts warn that the continued absence of critical voices could weaken democratic engagement and limit the diversity of perspectives in public discourse.

The Nigerian government has repeatedly maintained that it is committed to upholding citizens’ rights and ensuring a safe political environment. However, critics argue that more concrete steps are needed to rebuild trust and guarantee protection for activists.

For now, the reality remains that some of the individuals who once mobilised thousands on the streets and online may not be physically present when the next ballots are cast a situation that underscores the enduring tension between political participation and personal security in Nigeria.