• Jigawa, Delta lead increases; Kogi cuts debt by 31%

Nigeria’s total public debt rose to ₦153.29 trillion as of September 30, 2025, according to the Debt Management Office (DMO).

This represents an increase of ₦900 billion, or 0.59 per cent, from the ₦152.39 trillion recorded in June 2025. The country’s debt stock is projected to climb above ₦177.14 trillion by the end of 2026, driven largely by an estimated ₦23.85 trillion budget deficit for 2026.

The DMO report, released at the weekend, showed sharp variations in state-level debt movements. Domestic debt in Jigawa State and Delta State increased by 87.68 per cent and 20.77 per cent respectively, while Kogi State recorded the highest debt reduction, cutting its profile by 31.31 per cent during the period.

Nigeria’s total debt stock comprises both domestic and external liabilities of the federal government, the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).

As at the third quarter of 2025, domestic debt stood at ₦81.81 trillion ($55.47 billion), while external debt amounted to ₦71.47 trillion ($48.46 billion).

The federal government accounted for the bulk of domestic borrowing, with its debt rising to ₦77.81 trillion in Q3 2025 from ₦76.58 trillion in Q2. Domestic debt owed by state governments and the FCT also increased slightly from ₦3.96 trillion in June to ₦4 trillion in September.

An analysis of the report shows that Lagos State remains the most indebted state domestically, although its debt grew marginally by 0.43 per cent—from ₦1.041 trillion in Q2 2025 to ₦1.045 trillion in Q3.

Rivers State, ranked second with a domestic debt stock of ₦381.21 billion, recorded a 4.61 per cent increase from ₦364.39 billion in the second quarter. Delta State, the third most indebted, saw its debt rise by 20.77 per cent from ₦204.66 billion in Q2.

Among the least indebted states, Jigawa retained its position despite recording the highest growth rate. Its domestic debt jumped by 87.68 per cent, from ₦852.49 million in the second quarter to ₦1.60 billion in the third quarter.

In contrast, Kogi State reduced its debt by 31.31 per cent, from ₦18.79 billion in Q2 to ₦14.31 billion in Q3, while Ondo State also cut its debt by 10.47 per cent, from ₦10.64 billion to ₦9.53 billion over the same period.

Nigeria’s rising debt profile continues to raise concerns, particularly as the debt-to-GDP ratio stood at 37.5 per cent in the second quarter of 2025.

The DMO also disclosed that Nigeria spent ₦10.81 trillion—representing 47.85 per cent of its ₦22.59 trillion revenue—in the first nine months of 2025 on debt servicing alone.

Despite improved revenue following recent reforms, government expenditure has continued to rise, leading to increased borrowing, especially from the domestic bond market through monthly Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) savings bonds. Some analysts warn that this trend is crowding out private sector investment.

Experts have also cautioned about potential long-term consequences, including an unsustainable debt burden, and have stressed the need for a strategic shift toward more productive, growth-enhancing investments.