…As oil, raw materials drive exports
…Agricultural, manufactured exports plunge amid deepening import dependence

Nigeria recorded a N12.60 trillion merchandise trade surplus in the second quarter of 2026, more than double the surplus recorded a year earlier, as exports surged while imports fell year-on-year.

The latest Foreign Trade in Goods Statistics released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that the country’s trade surplus rose by 101.32 per cent compared with Q2 2025, underscoring a dramatic improvement in the headline trade balance.

However, beneath the seemingly impressive numbers lies a more troubling picture of Nigeria’s external trade structure: oil and petroleum products continued to dominate exports, while agricultural and manufactured exports recorded steep declines.

The NBS report showed that total merchandise trade climbed to N41.44 trillion in Q2 2026, representing a 5.61 per cent increase from N39.24 trillion in the corresponding quarter of 2025 and a 19.13 per cent rise from N34.79 trillion in Q1 2026.

Exports accounted for 65.20 per cent of total trade at N27.02 trillion, rising 18.77 per cent year-on-year and 27.64 per cent quarter-on-quarter.

Imports, meanwhile, stood at N14.42 trillion, down 12.55 per cent from N16.49 trillion in Q2 2025, although they increased 5.91 per cent from N13.62 trillion in Q1 2026.

The data show that Nigeria’s export boom was driven substantially by petroleum showing that the country’s export diversification efforts is still achieving very little.

Crude oil exports alone were worth N12.91 trillion, accounting for 47.79 per cent of total exports. The value was up 7.93 per cent from Q2 2025 and 15.28 per cent from Q1 2026.

Even more significant was the performance of other oil products, whose exports jumped to N10.38 trillion, representing increases of 34.08 per cent year-on-year and 53.05 per cent quarter-on-quarter.

Together, crude oil and other oil products accounted for roughly N23.29 trillion, or about 86 per cent of Nigeria’s entire export earnings in the quarter.

That means the apparent strengthening of Nigeria’s external position remains overwhelmingly tied to petroleum exports rather than a broad-based expansion of productive sectors.

The NBS itself reported that mineral products constituted 87.04 per cent of total exports, worth N23.52 trillion.

Perhaps the sharpest warning sign in the report is the performance of agricultural exports.

Nigeria exported agricultural goods worth just N802.99 billion in Q2, representing a staggering 36.09 per cent decline from N1.26 trillion recorded in Q2 2025.

The figure also represented a 31.51 per cent fall from N1.17 trillion in Q1 2026.

The deterioration becomes more striking when placed alongside agricultural imports.

While agricultural exports collapsed, agricultural imports increased to N1.20 trillion, up 1.63 per cent year-on-year and a huge 45.43 per cent from Q1 2026.

In other words, Nigeria exported less agricultural produce while importing more food and agricultural products, a development that could deepen pressure on domestic food production and the country’s foreign-exchange position.

Major agricultural exports included cashew nuts, cocoa beans, sesame seeds and soya beans. Yet the report shows that even these traditional non-oil export earners were unable to sustain the previous year’s performance.

The country’s manufacturing sector also delivered a disappointing export performance.

Manufactured goods exports fell to N393.03 billion, representing a massive 51.10 per cent decline from N803.81 billion in Q2 2025.

Although exports recovered 29.87 per cent from Q1 2026, the year-on-year collapse raises questions about Nigeria’s ability to convert its large domestic production base into competitive exports.

The contrast with imports is stark.

Nigeria imported manufactured goods worth N9.51 trillion, up 20.65 per cent from N7.88 trillion a year earlier and 12.10 per cent from Q1 2026.

This creates one of the report’s most significant structural red flags: manufactured imports are rising rapidly while manufactured exports are collapsing.

China remained overwhelmingly dominant on the import side.

Goods imported from China were valued at N5.92 trillion, accounting for 41.02 per cent of Nigeria’s total imports.

The United States followed with N1.01 trillion, India with N924.46 billion, the Netherlands with N409.81 billion and Germany with N395.87 billion.

Asia supplied 59.37 per cent of Nigeria’s total imports, worth N8.56 trillion, while Europe accounted for 21.25 per cent.

African countries supplied only 7.65 per cent of Nigeria’s imports, worth N1.10 trillion.

The import basket was dominated by machinery and transport equipment at N5.46 trillion, followed by chemicals and related products at N2.51 trillion and manufactured goods at N1.87 trillion.

The report also reveals that while non-crude exports technically exceeded crude exports, this was largely because petroleum products classified outside crude oil continued to generate enormous export earnings.

Non-crude oil exports amounted to N14.11 trillion, or 52.21 per cent of total exports.

But genuinely non-oil products contributed only N3.73 trillion, equivalent to 13.80 per cent of total exports.

That distinction exposes the continuing weakness of Nigeria’s export diversification drive.

One of the strongest performances came from raw material exports, which jumped 181.24 per cent year-on-year to N2.31 trillion.

The figure was also 50.31 per cent higher than the N1.53 trillion recorded in Q1.

Urea exports to the United States alone were worth N1.07 trillion, while non-monetary gold exports to Switzerland amounted to N73.09 billion.

Solid mineral exports also increased strongly, rising 90.03 per cent year-on-year to N146.91 billion.

But despite the growth, solid minerals represented only 0.49 per cent of total trade, highlighting how small the sector remains relative to petroleum.

Nigeria recorded a substantial trade surplus with Africa, exporting N6.65 trillion to the continent while importing only N1.10 trillion.

But the composition of that trade again raises concerns.

Nearly half, 48.58 per cent, of Nigeria’s exports to Africa consisted of crude oil, while gas oil accounted for another 19.88 per cent and kerosene-type jet fuel 14.66 per cent.

The top five products accounted for an extraordinary 91.60 per cent of Nigeria’s exports to Africa.

Even more revealing, crude petroleum accounted for 56.97 per cent of imports from African countries.

So, despite Nigeria’s huge trade surplus with Africa, petroleum dominates both sides of the continental trade equation.

Nigeria exported N3.75 trillion worth of goods to ECOWAS member states but imported only N269.06 billion.

Yet three products, crude oil, gas oil and kerosene-type jet fuel, accounted for 78.40 per cent of exports to the regional bloc.

This suggests that Nigeria’s large regional trade surplus has not yet translated into a diversified industrial export base within West Africa.