NNPC, NUPRC, oil majors insist on 3mbpd target, seek lower production costs

Nigeria’s industrial future rests on indigenous capacity - Firm

NMDPRA, PTDF, operators push for tech, efficiency
Key players in Nigeria’s oil and gas industry have reaffirmed their commitment to achieving three million barrels per day (mbpd) crude oil production, even as they stressed the need to significantly reduce the country’s high production costs through technology and efficiency.

The operators spoke yesterday in Abuja at the 2026 Oloibiri Lecture Series and Energy Forum, organised by the Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE).

Despite Nigeria’s struggle to consistently produce up to 2mbpd, stakeholders, including regulators and operators, said the 3mbpd target remained sacrosanct but must be achieved at a lower cost to ensure competitiveness.

Nigeria’s oil production costs are among the highest globally, with some operators estimating them at about $40 per barrel.

Speaking at the event, the Chief Executive of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, said achieving the production target requires more than increased drilling activities.

She said: “Achieving these targets requires more than drilling; it demands policy and regulatory frameworks that attract capital, spur innovation, enable digital oilfields, and ensure value is created intelligently and sustainably.”

Although Nigeria is endowed with over 37 billion barrels of crude oil and more than 200 trillion cubic feet of gas, she noted that the sector had struggled over the years due to slowed investments, stalled projects, rising costs and declining investor confidence.

Eyesan said the lesson from the trend was that “resource endowment alone does not create value”, stressing that effective execution driven by the alignment of policy, capital and technology was critical.

She disclosed that ongoing regulatory reforms and data-driven oversight helped attract over $10 billion in new upstream investments, adding that the commission recently sanctioned another Final Investment Decision (FID) in the deepwater segment.

The Executive Vice President, Upstream, Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL), Udobong Ntia, who represented the Group Chief Executive Officer (GCEO), Bayo Ojulari, believes that the 3mbpd target is achievable.

According to him, the country already has the required assets, resources and regulatory framework to reach the target, but must focus on how efficiently they are deployed.

“The future of Nigeria’s upstream sector will be defined by how intelligently its barriers are regulated, funded, secured and produced,” Ntia said.

He commended NUPRC for resolving long-standing issues, including legacy asset disputes and stalled investment decisions, noting that such interventions helped attract over $24 billion in capital inflows.

Similarly, the Chief Executive of the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), Farouk Ahmed, represented by Saidu Mohammed, said achieving the production target would require adequate funding, efficient technological systems, and a stable regulatory environment.

He added that Nigeria was positioning itself as an emerging energy hub capable of meeting domestic demand and exporting to regional and international markets.

The crude oil target, he added, is also tied to the country’s gas ambitions, including the Decade of Gas initiative aimed at significantly increasing daily gas production.

In his welcome address, the Chairman of the SPE Nigeria Council, Francis Nwaochei, said the forum serves as a platform for stakeholders to collectively shape the future of Nigeria’s energy industry.

He said the theme of the conference, ‘Beyond Three Million Barrels Target: Harmonising Digitalisation, Capital and Policy Frameworks for Intelligent Operations and Asset Optimisation’, challenges the industry to rethink how value is created.

Nwaochei noted that data and technology were becoming as critical as hydrocarbons, while capital is increasingly selective, and policy must evolve rapidly to support industry growth.

The Petroleum Technology Development Fund (PTDF) also emphasised the role of human capital and digital skills in achieving the industry’s targets.

The Executive Secretary, Prof. Shu’aibu Aliyu, said operators must shift focus from production volumes alone to efficiency, innovation, and optimisation.

PTDF noted that it was strengthening training programmes in areas such as Artificial Intelligence (AI), Machine Learning (ML), robotics and the Internet of Things (IoT) to build a workforce capable of driving intelligent operations.

Stakeholders at the forum also highlighted the need to optimise existing assets rather than relying solely on new developments, noting that recent production gains in some operations have come from improved efficiency in ageing infrastructure.

The operators said 3mbpd target remains achievable, adding that Nigeria must address high production costs, deploy advanced technologies, and sustain regulatory reforms to unlock its full potential.

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