No less than over 40.2 million barrels of crude oil made available by international and independent oil producers in Nigeria were not taken by Dangote Refinery and other local refineries, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) said yesterday.

Indeed, the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), in a release yesterday, signed by its Head, Media and Corporate Communication,Eniola Akinkuotu, said the 40.2 million covers the first quarter of the year.

The data showed that while the commission compelled 61.9 million barrels allocation through the provisions of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), producers collectively offered a higher volume of 68.7 million barrels.

It noted that the conversion rate, however, stalled at 28.5 million barrels, translating to a supply of about 36 per cent as of the end of the first quarter in 2026.

“The shortfall between volumes offered and actual deliveries has been attributed primarily to pricing gaps between producers and domestic refiners. The Commission emphasised that the present framework operates on a ‘willing buyer, willing seller’ basis, which continues to shape transaction outcomes,” Akinkuotu noted.

According to him, the regulator remains committed to achieving the government’s objective of energy sufficiency.
MEANWHILE, the Chartered Risk Management Institute of Nigeria (CRMI) has warned that Nigeria may face significant oil market risks following the decision of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to exit the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

In a policy advisory issued yesterday, the institute said the development could trigger global oil market volatility, weaken supply coordination among producing nations and heighten geopolitical tensions, with direct implications for Nigeria’s economy.

The advisory, signed by CRMI Registrar/Chief Executive Officer Victor Olannye, described the UAE’s exit as a “landmark shift” in global oil governance capable of disrupting long-standing production alliances.

According to Olannye, key risks include a potential breakdown in OPEC cohesion, increased oil price volatility, energy supply chain disruptions, macroeconomic uncertainty and the possibility of a contagion effect, with other member states considering similar exits.

The UAE had last month announced that it is quitting the OPEC and OPEC+ groups of major oil-producing nations in May after nearly 60 years of membership. The Emirates said its decision would help it meet growing global energy demand in the long term after recent investments to boost its production capacity.

But while noting that Nigeria could benefit from increased production flexibility and potential expansion in market share, the institute cautioned that such gains might be offset by exposure to unstable oil prices, reduced protection from coordinated supply management and heightened global competition.
THE Federal Government’s latest move to engage a Chinese firm to complete outstanding works and oversee the operations and maintenance of the Port Harcourt and Warri refineries split opinion among energy experts and industry stakeholders.

While some analysts view the Chinese deal as a pragmatic step to revive long-idle assets and boost domestic refining capacity, others argue it risks deepening a cycle of waste, insisting the ageing facilities should be scrapped and replaced with new, modern refineries.

The controversy comes amid concerns over transparency and value for money, especially following reports that the refineries were shut down barely months after gulping about N3.6 trillion for rehabilitation.

A prominent energy economist, Prof Adeola Adenikinju, called for full disclosure of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), stressing that the public deserves clarity on the scope and structure of the agreement.

Despite the concerns, the economist in an interview with The Guardian emphasised the strategic importance of functional refineries, noting that local processing of crude would significantly enhance value addition, create jobs, reduce poverty, and strengthen Nigeria’s energy security.

However, policy analyst, Blessing Wikina dismissed the renewed investment in rehabilitation as wasteful, arguing that repeated turnaround maintenance efforts failed to deliver results.

A professor of Microbial Corrosion and Environment Studies, Akpofure Rim-Rukeh, asked: “What are the Chinese going to do differently?”

The immediate past Vice Chancellor of Federal University of Petroleum Resources (FUPRE), Effurun, Delta State, said the Federal Government had not been transparent on what is happening at the refineries and that everything had been hidden from Nigerians

He said that until the history of the problem of the refineries is disclosed, only then can problems be proffered.

For the Chairman of Warri Refinery Support Staff Association, Dafe Ighomitedo, the news that an MoU had been signed by NNPC Management with two Chinese companies (Sanjiang Chemical Company Limited and Xingcheng (Fuzhou) Industrial Park Operation and Management Co. Ltd), acting as Technical Equity Partners (TEP) for the complete Rehabilitation, Restart and Expansion of WRPC and PHRC, came to the Support Staff of WRPC with great excitement, and a fear of uncertainty as to their fate in this new marriage of Nigeria and China.