The United States exported more crude oil to Nigeria than it imported from the West African nation for the first time in February and March 2025, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).

In a statement released on Tuesday, the EIA attributed this shift to declining demand for imports by US refineries and rising crude oil demand in Nigeria, largely driven by the operations of the Dangote refinery.

“Refinery maintenance in the US East Coast drove down US demand for crude oil imports, including imports from Nigeria, and the relatively new Dangote refinery in Nigeria drove up Nigeria’s demand for inputs, including crude oil it imported from the United States,” the EIA said. “This marks the first time that the United States was a net crude oil exporter to Nigeria, and structural changes to crude oil trade between the countries suggest this dynamic could occur more frequently.”

US gross exports of crude oil to Nigeria reached 111,000 barrels per day (b/d) in February and rose to 169,000 b/d in March. During the same period, US imports of Nigerian crude dropped significantly, from 133,000 b/d in January to 54,000 b/d in February, and slightly rose to 72,000 b/d in March.

The decline in US imports was linked primarily to maintenance at the Phillips 66 Bayway refinery in New Jersey, which reduced the country’s demand for crude oil from Nigeria. However, the EIA noted that as the refinery resumed normal operations in April and the Dangote refinery in Nigeria experienced unplanned maintenance from early April to mid-May, the trend began to shift again—US imports from Nigeria increased while exports to Nigeria fell.

The EIA recalled that Nigeria was traditionally one of the major sources of US crude imports, especially between 1973 and 2011, before increased domestic production in the US reduced reliance on light, sweet crude from abroad.

“Nigeria ranked among the top five sources of US crude oil imports for decades. More recently, Nigeria ranked ninth among US crude oil import sources in 2024,” the agency stated.

The Dangote refinery, which began operations in January 2025, is expected to reach a full capacity of 650,000 b/d by the end of the year. Current reports indicate it is running at around 550,000 b/d. The refinery’s demand for crude oil has contributed to the change in trade flows.

According to the EIA, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd) currently supplies about 300,000 b/d to the refinery.

However, revenue from those deliveries is paid in naira. Due to the weakening of the naira against the US dollar, the NNPC has greater incentive to sell its crude on international markets where returns are in foreign currency.

The agency also highlighted that the NNPC’s ability to boost deliveries to the refinery may be constrained by Nigeria’s declining crude oil production. Production by the NNPC and its joint venture partners has fallen from a peak of 2.4 million b/d in 2005 to 1.3 million b/d in 2024.