Despite its 2024 life expectancy estimated at 79 years, Poland’s working-age population has taken a dip due to an ageing society and the country could become dotted with ghost towns and abandoned homes within the next 20 years, the national statistics agency has warned.

The proportion of working-age people fell to 58.2 percent of the total population, from 58.4 percent in 2023, the Statistics Poland (GUS) agency said. In absolute terms, that figure dropped by 151,000 to under 22 million.

An analysis by Credit Agricole Bank Polska links the forecast to the country’s worsening demographic trends, where deaths currently outnumber births by approximately 170,000 annually.

Experts warn that if the trend continues, Poland’s housing market could be dramatically reshaped by 2045, leaving regions—particularly in the east—littered with abandoned towns and homes sold for token sums.

Dr Jakub Borowski, the bank’s chief economist, said: “Our analysis paints a dramatic picture.” Referring to regions in eastern Poland, he explained: “These could be ghost towns, like those in Sicily, where you can buy houses for a euro.”

The bank forecasts that the number of vacant properties will more than double over the next 20 years—from 1.7 million today to nearly 3.6 million.

The largest concentration of empty homes currently lies in major cities such as Warsaw, Kraków, Wrocław, the coastal Tricity, Poznań, and Łódź. It is expected that the trend will shift toward smaller towns and rural areas.

According to the analysis, the number of households will begin to fall around 2030, marking the start of a long-term decline in housing demand.

Since 2010, the number of working-age Poles has declined by nearly 3 million, according to Statistics Poland.

Poland’s persistently low birth rate is no longer a temporary dip, but a structural shift driven by young people’s increasing difficulty in forming stable relationships, a demography expert has said.

Mateusz Łakomy, a member of the European Association for Population Studies and author of a major book on Poland’s demographics, argued that the primary cause of the low fertility rate was a “growing mismatch in the partner market,” especially in terms of education.

“A significantly higher percentage of women have higher education degrees compared to men,” he explained. “Education is one of the main determinants of what we call socioeconomic status. This includes social respect, access to resources, income, and occupation.”

Across Europe, women are more likely than men to obtain higher education, and Poland reflects this trend with an even sharper gender gap.

In Poland, 56 percent of women aged 25 to 34 hold a university degree, compared to 37 percent of men in the same age group. Women also make up the majority of students at Polish universities and are more likely to earn academic titles.

Łakomy noted that people typically form relationships with others of similar socioeconomic status, and that many women continue to prefer partners with a slightly higher status.

“A man with more access to resources may offer a woman a greater sense of security,” he said. “That sense of security often makes her more likely to decide to have a child.”