Members of Uganda’s opposition held a prayer gathering on Sunday at the home of an imprisoned politician, highlighting concerns over state repression ahead of Thursday’s presidential election.
The event, attended by young and older supporters, reflected both a sense of defiance and the risks involved in challenging the ruling government.
Kampala Mayor Erias Lukwago, addressing the assembly, framed the vote as a “face off” between ordinary Ugandans and President Yoweri Museveni. “All of you are in two categories: political prisoners and potential political prisoners,” he said.
Museveni, 81, who has led Uganda for more than four decades, is widely expected to win again, benefiting from near-total control of the state and security apparatus. He came to power in the 1980s as a bush fighter and has maintained a heavily militarised governance structure, frequently cracking down on political challengers.
The current campaign has already seen hundreds of opposition supporters detained and at least one killed. Police have described these incidents as efforts to control “hooligans”. The main opposition candidate, Robert Kyagulanyi, popularly known as Bobi Wine, has faced repeated arrests and reported torture while in military custody and is rarely seen in public without a flak jacket.
Another opposition figure, Kizza Besigye, was abducted in Kenya in 2024 and taken to a military prison in Uganda to face treason charges. His wife, UNAIDS director Winnie Byanyima, who hosted Sunday’s prayer meeting, described Uganda as operating under “a thin veneer” of democracy.
“We are really a military state,” she told AFP. “There’s total capture of state institutions by the individual who holds military power, President Museveni.”
Experts say the police and military are central to maintaining Museveni’s control. Jude Kagoro, a researcher at the University of Bremen who studies African policing, said officers often see their role as supporting the incumbent rather than remaining neutral and frequently act against opposition events without explicit orders. Security services also recruit young people in opposition areas to disrupt activities and gather intelligence, a system informally known as “ghetto structures”.
“The regime wants to make people very scared so they don’t come out to vote,” said David Lewis Rubongoya, secretary-general of Wine’s National Unity Platform. Rights groups have reported a spate of arrests and abductions targeting opposition members, mirroring tactics used in neighbouring Kenya and Tanzania.
The pervasive threat of violence has restricted the opposition’s ability to mobilise. Kristof Titeca, a Uganda specialist at Antwerp University, said the cost of political engagement has become high. “What’s left is a group of core supporters. Is there a grassroots opposition? No, there isn’t. It’s way too dangerous,” he said.
With elections approaching, the opposition’s warnings underscore the challenges faced by those seeking to contest Museveni’s long-standing administration and raise broader questions about the role of the security forces in Uganda’s political process.
