Bid Nigeria Air goodbye!

It has been two years since the Federal Government unveiled the national carrier project at the Farnborough Air-show in London, United Kingdom.

The proposed airline that was christened ‘Nigeria Air’ had good intentions on its trail. But good intent was not good enough to convince Nigerians or enable the airline to fly in fairly good time. It is interesting to read the other day that the COVID-19 lean era has readily foreclosed such a high-risk venture. Alas, good logic should prevail on advocates to bid the project a good farewell.
 
In fairness to the Federal Government and Nigeria Air promoters, a national airline is indeed an elegant asset and a nation’s pride. In the heydays of defunct Nigeria Airways, the 1980s and 1990s, Nigerian middle-class could tell that the airline was an embassy in motion, showcasing the splendour of our political and economic strength to the world. That was before gross inefficiency teamed up with official mismanagement and corruption to ruin the airline and liquidated its assets to pay off debts in 2004. Its unfortunate demise has left a yawning vacuum that has never been filled, and a rationale to start a new carrier.

Today, there are about 100 Bilateral Air Service Agreements (BASAs) racked up by Nigeria. It means 100 potential international markets for a national carrier to operate commercially and unhindered by aggressive aero politics that often clips the wings of designated flag carriers. At this time of COVID-19, a national carrier would have been the most useful vehicle to repatriate our citizens who are stranded worldwide. 
 
But as patronising as the asset is, the logic of its economies is flawed. Airline business is highly capital intensive and too expensive a bill for national pride alone. That explains why economic superpowers like the U.S., the UK, France, among others, have for long shared the burden of ownership with the private sector. Even the most successful airline in Africa – Ethiopian Airlines – is aiming to divest both asset and liability to enhance its chances of survival. Apparently, with that in mind, the Outline Business Case of the proposed Nigeria Air has a joint partnership between the state and private sector, with the latter bearing as much as 95 per cent of ownership.    
 
However, credible investors are scarce in high-risk modern aviation. Attracting them has been a major hurdle for project handlers in the Ministry of Aviation. While the potential of the aviation market is not in doubt, the government too has not shown to be credible or able to honour agreements. The debacle of failed Virgin Nigeria airline, and yet unresolved legal battle between Bi-Courtney Aviation Services Limited (BASL) and Federal Airports Authority of Nigeria (FAAN), over Murtala Muhammed Airport terminal II (MMA2), are credibility dark clouds hanging over the Federal Government and sufficient reasons not to be trusted with new partnership ventures. 
 
If it was difficult attracting credible allies then, seeking them in economies plagued by COVID-19 realities must be an arduous task of squeezing water out of stones. Today, all airlines, including the government subsidised legacy carriers, are struggling with million-dollar debts and heavily dependent on government bailouts not to go under. For instance, Delta Airlines earlier estimated the loss of $534 million for Q1 2020. Ethiopian Airways, the biggest on the continent, flagged the loss of $550 million in April. Others, like British Airways, Emirates, and Lufthansa are caught in-between reducing the fleet-size and massive furlough of the workforce. The pandemic has cost global aviation $314 billion revenue loss, according to the International Air Transport Association’s (IATA) estimates. It is, therefore, not a good time to bank on beleaguered foreign investors.