With anti-semitism elavated as ideological national policy, relations between Israel and the Islamic Republic of Iran deteriorated drastically. Coupled with the desire to become the leader of a greater Islamic empire in the Middle East, Iran came to perceive Israel as an unwanted presence in the region and the seed of hatred continued to grow.
The Supreme Leader, Ayatolla Ali Khamenei, stated that Israel is a “cancerous tumor” that must be eradicated. While other countries of the Arab World gingerly came to terms with the idea of Israel as a neighbor and partner, Iran remained unyielding and uncompromising.
It is within this intractable matrix that the conflict between Israel and Iran has become a flashpoint that sends reverberations around the world. Although Prime Minister Netanyahu, during his long years in power, favored the policy of military solution, the United States have continued to downplay that option, choosing instead the instruments of diplomacy and rapproachment. The reasons for this option was not farfetched but Netanyahu and the hawks in Israel continued to believe that it will never work. They argued that Iran uses diplomatic negotiations as an opportunity to gain time while keeping up progress in their nuclear objectives.
Matters eventually came to a head with the events of October 7. For Netanyahu and those in ideological sympathy with him, it was time to deal with the Iranian threat in a more comprehensive military manner. While the war in Gaza was raging, Israel commenced an ambitious strategic masterstroke aimed at the heart of Iran and its nuclear projects. It was a strange, vicious and unexpected initiative which confounded many.
First, Israel took out Hezbollah, the strongest and most daring of Iran’s proxies. In a plot reminiscent of Frederick Forsyth’s fictional creations, Israel took out the entire Hezbollah hierarchy in several daring moves including phone bombings, targeted assassinations of the leadership and sustained bombardment of Hezbollah facilities across Lebanon. With Hezbollah and other minions in retreat, Iran was left naked and exposed. For those in the know, an Israeli attack against its recalcitrant and unyielding regional enemy was just a matter of time.
So, it came as no surprise when in the early hours of Thursday, June 13, the news swept across the world that Israel has made the move by sending over 200 bombers into Iran. The lightening strike against Iran’s military and intelligence establishments stunned the world. The raid which was co-ordinated by Israeli agents buried deep inside Iranian territory, was code-named “Operation Rising Lion”.
In a daring attack, the army of Israel targetted Iran’s nuclear facilities, military establishments, intelligence outposts and individual members of the Iranian High Command. Two nuclear sites and six airports were hit across Teheran and other major cities. The individuals killed include Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, General Mohammad Bagheri; Head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, Hossein Salami; Top Commander, General Gholam Ali Rashid; Head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Agency, Fereydoun Abbasi and Senior Advisor to the Supreme Leader, Ali Shamkhani. Others include Aerospace Commander of the IRGC, General Ami Ali Hajizadeh; IRGC Unit Commander, General Taher Pour and Quds Force Commander, Esmail Qaani. In addition, six scientists and University Professors were also killed.
The day saw a flurry of activities and statements from around the world. The Israeli Prime Minister said Israel has taken steps to “neutralise an immediate and existential threat to Israel.” President Trump said the U.S. was not involved but was aware of the impending action. He described the attack as “excellent” and warned Iran to head back to the negotiating table or expect more grievous attacks.
The British Prime Minister said the attack was “very concerning”. UK, France, Germany, Australia, New Zealand called for restraint and de-escalation. The UN Secretary General, NATO Secretary General, African Union and the Head of IAEA called for restraint and negotiated settlement.
From the other divide, China and Russia condemned the attack as a violation of sovereignty and international law. Qatar, Turkey, Egypt Saudi Arabia and Oman also condemned the attack. Besides rhetorics and condemnation of Israel, how far any of these countries would be willing to go to provide tangible military aid to Iran remains to be seen.
The Iranian Supreme Leader said “the Zionist regime has prepared for itself a bitter, painful fate, which will definitely come”. Later in the day, Iran retaliated by raining a barrage of missiles on the Israeli cities of Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. Israel has threatened to widen the attacks and in the following days, perhaps weeks, more will continue to happen. This is what Israel had wanted to do for so long and in a single night, Israel was able to decapitate Iran’s military and intelligence command structure. As dawn broke on Thursday June 13, Iranians were in disarray. Those who could have met to take decisions on how to deal with Israel were either dead, taken out in their beds, offices or conference rooms or they were in hiding – from Israeli bombs.
Israel and Iran are in a state of war. Iran was able to rouse itself from the devastating Israeli attack to take some measures. First they appointed, within hours, replacements for the senior officers killed during the night raid by Israel. Then they commenced some retaliatory moves which saw a barrage of missiles fired into several Israeli cities – Tel Aviv and Jerusalem in particular. Within the first 36 hours of the war, Israel recorded three casualties and several dozens wounded from Iranian missiles. Iran may also decide to widen the scope of the war by attacking U.S. interests or allies in the region, but this would be a very desperate move especially if the regime felt it was on the verge and wouldn’t want to go down alone.
Meanwhile, the Security Council of the United Nations met within hours of the commencement of hostilities and called for restraints and immediate de-escalation. The world is watching with bated breath and in the days and weeks ahead, a lot will happen. It is not always easy to predict the outcome of any war though one can make insights. Both Israel and Iran will suffer the collateral effects of armed conflict but this is a war Israel must fight. Israel also appears to be taking a long range look into the arena of regime change.
This and more will become clearer in the days ahead. For now the Iranian nuclear threat must be dealt with or at least significantly degraded. The friends of both Israel and Iran are watching, but talking about friends, Iran has far less to hope on than Israel. Russia which would have provided Iran the much needed leverage is still bogged down in Ukraine. These are very interesting times indeed.
Concluded.
Dr Egbo wrote from Abuja.
