By Sunday Ayodele Enikanselu

For decades, Nigeria’s political history has been shaped by an intense contest for power among regional and political blocs. While every democracy experiences political competition, Nigeria’s experience has often gone beyond ordinary rivalry into a fierce struggle for dominance over the commanding heights of government.

A critical examination of our political history reveals a disturbing pattern. Whenever power appears to be slipping away from the traditional political establishment that had dominated Nigeria for much of the post-independence era, forces emerge to challenge, frustrate, and sometimes destabilise the prevailing order. This is a matter that Nigerians must confront honestly.

The June 12 lesson
The clearest example remains the annulment of the June 12, 1993 presidential election. The election, widely regarded as the freest and fairest in Nigeria’s history, was won by the late Chief Moshood Kashimawo Olawale Abiola, a southerner whose victory cut across ethnic and religious divides. Yet the military establishment refused to honour the mandate freely given by Nigerians.

The consequences were devastating. Democracy was delayed, national unity was weakened, and many Nigerians concluded that certain interests were unwilling to allow political power to move beyond their sphere of influence.

The wounds of June 12 remain fresh because many Nigerians believe that Abiola was denied the presidency not because he lacked legitimacy but because powerful forces considered his emergence unacceptable.

The Jonathan experience
History appeared to repeat itself during the administration of President Goodluck Jonathan. Jonathan became President following the death of President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua in accordance with constitutional provisions.

However, from the onset, his presidency faced intense resistance from sections of the political elite who argued that power should not remain in the South. The period witnessed the escalation of insecurity, heightened political tensions, and relentless attacks on the administration.

Whether by coincidence or design, the atmosphere created around the Jonathan government significantly weakened public confidence and contributed to its eventual electoral defeat in 2015. Many Nigerians continue to ask whether the resistance Jonathan encountered was purely political opposition or part of a broader struggle over who should control federal power.

The Tinubu presidency and emerging political realignments
Today, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu finds himself presiding over one of the most ambitious economic reform programmes in Nigeria’s history. His administration has dismantled fuel subsidy arrangements, confronted foreign exchange distortions, tightened revenue collection systems, and challenged entrenched interests that had benefited enormously from economic leakages. Such reforms were never going to be painless. Nor were they likely to be welcomed by those whose privileges depended on the continuation of the old order.

The question therefore arises: Are some of the political and economic interests displaced by these reforms working to undermine the administration through the weaponisation of public discontent and insecurity? This is a question deserving serious national reflection.

Banditry and kidnapping: Criminality or political instrument?
No serious observer can deny that many of the bandit groups terrorising communities across Northern Nigeria have operated for years within areas where government authority has been weak. Several security investigations and arrests have exposed networks of sponsors, collaborators, informants, and financiers behind these criminal enterprises.

The frightening expansion of kidnapping from isolated rural locations to virtually every region of Nigeria suggests that the problem has evolved beyond ordinary criminality. Nigerians are therefore justified in demanding answers.

Who finances these operations? Who supplies weapons? Who protects the sponsors? Why have some criminal networks survived for so long despite repeated military operations? Until these questions are fully answered, suspicions will continue to grow that powerful interests benefit from the climate of fear and instability.

The South must remain vigilant
The South must learn from history. Political power is rarely surrendered permanently. Those who lose it often organise relentlessly to regain it.

Southern political leaders, traditional rulers, community organisations, professional bodies, and civil society groups must therefore remain vigilant in protecting democratic gains and ensuring that constitutional arrangements are respected. This is not a call for ethnic hostility. It is a call for political awareness.

Communities must strengthen lawful local security initiatives, support intelligence gathering, monitor suspicious activities, and cooperate closely with security agencies. Our forests, farms, highways, and rural settlements must not be abandoned to criminal elements.

The responsibility of the Federal Government
The Federal Government must dramatically strengthen intelligence gathering and technological surveillance. The sponsors of banditry, terrorism, illegal mining, economic sabotage, and kidnapping must be identified and prosecuted irrespective of their social status, political influence, ethnic identity, or financial power. Nigeria cannot defeat insecurity by arresting foot soldiers while leaving financiers untouched.

The battle must move beyond the forests to the boardrooms, political circles, and financial networks that sustain criminality.

A defining moment for Nigeria
The 2027 election will be more than a contest between political parties.
It will be a referendum on whether Nigeria continues the difficult process of economic restructuring or returns to a system that enrich a privileged few while impoverishing the majority.

President Tinubu’s administration may not be perfect. No government is. However, many of the structural distortions threatening Nigeria today did not emerge overnight. They are the products of decades of mismanagement, patronage politics, and economic exploitation.

The nation now stands at a crossroads.

Nigerians must decide whether to support reforms aimed at long-term national prosperity or allow those who benefited from the old order to regain control through fear, division, and political manipulation .

History teaches us that eternal vigilance is the price of liberty. The struggle for Nigeria’s future is not merely a contest for power. It is a contest for the soul of the nation itself.

Prof. Enukanselu (rtd), wrote from Lagos.