The Ekiti governorship election has left much to talk about: allegations of using uncollected PVCs to vote, vote trading, failure of law enforcement to arrest vote traders despite reinforced legal provisions. The Electoral Act 2026, provides the penalty of N5 million or two-year jail term for vote trading.

But from media reports, votes were flagrantly traded, with beneficiaries carting home N10,000 to N15,000, just to vote and show evidence. Official confirmation may never come. But what is the essence of a good law if it is not tested to deter future offenders?

It was in Ekiti State the ‘stomach infrastructure’ vocabulary gained notoriety under former Governor Ayodele Fayose. Instead of adopting Social Investment Programmes (SIPs) that are trackable and accountable to solve socio-economic problems, Fayose adopted the case-by-case approach of solving citizens’ challenges, including footing bills at child-naming and other ceremonies. It was popular but not accountable, and could have facilitated the idea of buying votes.

It was electoral fraud that put Ekiti on INEC’s off-cycle timetable. It took close to three years for the tribunal (Appeal Court) to reverse the 2007 governorship election initially declared in favour of Segun Oni of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). Dr Kayode Fayemi of the Action Congress Nigeria (ACN) was sworn into office on October 15, 2010. It was a costly rigmarole funded by Ekiti taxpayers.

In the off-cycle election of 2018, when Fayose worked hard to install his former deputy, Professor Kolapo Olusola (Eleka), as successor, that election was riotous. Apart from being highly militarised, vote buying was popularised, and has established itself as a part of the electoral system. On that occasion, phone numbers of citizens, particularly civil servants were harvested and credited with sums on the eve of the election.

Yet, that election was a tough contest. Dr Fayemi, who was going for his second term under the All Progressives Congress (APC), secured 197,459 votes to defeat Olusola of PDP, who polled 178,121 votes. The margin showed there was not just an election but a contest. Fayose, who was the incumbent governor could not capture the state for his deputy. Fayemi, despite having federal backing struggled to win decisively.

Ekiti 2026 was the second off-cycle governorship election to take place in the South-West under president Tinubu. The first was in Ondo, in November 2024, where Governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa won by a comfortable but not outlandish margin. Aiyedatiwa scored 366,781 votes.

The candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Agboola Ajayi, recorded 117,845 votes.

That election was at a time the PDP was beginning to unravel, yet, there was a contest.

Ekiti 2026 gave incumbent Governor Biodun Oyebanji 319,224 votes, while Wole Oluyede, the PDP candidate got 40,543 votes and Oluwadare Bejide of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) scored 12,872 votes. But the seeming landslide for the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), does not explain the wider context. It does not explain why citizens who are going through excruciating economic and security pains will hand 85 per cent of votes to an underperforming government and party at the Federal and states.

What is the excitement in Ekiti that will cause citizens to commit 85 per cent of their votes to a government that is not particularly fantastic? Ekiti people are very discerning, and from history, are politically savvy. It is understandable that of a voter population of 1,059,360, less than 40 per cent voted.

Of a population of around 4.1 million, less than 300,000 people bothered to join the elections. For a government that claims to be of the people and for the people, the numbers are damning.

Road to apathy and lopsidedness
Both the PDP and ADC are battling existential crises from which they may not recover sufficiently to be competitive in 2027. That was what played out in Ekiti 2026. The candidate of PDP, Oluyede was excluded from INEC’s final list of candidates in December 2025.

The candidate of the Social Democratic Party (SDP, was also excluded at the time. The explanation was that the parties were factionalised and INEC could not determine which faction to recognise.

It took the Federal High Court, Abuja, to restore Oluyede to the ballot in March, 2026. The Court characterised INEC’s refusal to publish the PDP candidate’s name as “illegal and unlawful.” But that was after the candidate had been disoriented and flummoxed. No candidate or political party should be left in suspense six months to a crucial election, but that was want happened and it robbed the election of balance and fairness.

That was not all. On April, 1, 2026, INEC officially delisted David Mark and other National Working Committee (NWC) members of African Democratic Congress (ADC), from its portal, claiming to be obeying a Court of Appeal order. It was not until April 30, 2026, that the Supreme Court vacated the Court of Appeal’s status quo order, and ordered reinstatement of ADC leaders’ names on INEC portal.

That was one good month of leadership vacuum for a party that had a governorship election in June. No doubt, the disruption stalled deployments and campaign support for Oluwadare Bejide, candidate of ADC in the Ekiti election. What magic was he supposed to perform, beyond the miserable 12,872 votes he was allotted? Meanwhile, the legal battle has not ended, for a party that is expected to compete without let or hinder in the 2027 general elections.

Apart from the legal squeeze, ADC was physically terrorised by political militants on October 21, 2025, when it was to inaugurate its executive in Ado Ekiti. The Secretariat was torched midnight and vital party assets destroyed. Apart from the arson, the militants arrived on the inauguration day, attacked members and shot sporadically, with the intention to intimidate. That is not the road to a free and fair election.

On June 15, 2026, Justice Lifu of the Federal High Court, Abuja, ordered INEC to deregister five political parties, including the ADC and Accord Party, because they allegedly failed to meet constitutional thresholds: scoring at least 25 per cent of the votes in specific elections, pursuant to Section 225A of the amended 1999 Constitution.

Even though the Court of Appeal had ordered a stay of the deregistration order, there is a July 7, 2026, date for concerned parties to return for the substantive hearing. So, in about six months to the next elections, only APC is sure of its legal status. How does anyone expect ADC to do well in Ekiti governorship election, when it is disoriented and harassed?

Concerned democrats have campaigned that incumbency powers and access to state resources do not favour free and fair elections. Where this democracy was copied, in the United States, incumbent contestants do not dip their hands in the public till for their campaign expenses. They are allowed to raise funds from private and corporate citizens and such funds are traceable and accountable. But here, anything goes.

The wife of Mr President, Oluremi Tinubu, is busy sharing Akara and Kuli-kuli monies to women in the name of non-repayable grants. Vehicles are shared to women party leaders in states. The son of Mr President is busy wooing voters with resources that are not accounted for. These monies do not reflect in government budget and tax papers. And you expect the opposition to do well in elections?

Both the Constitution and the Electoral Act give INEC powers to probe parties’ finances. Parties are expected to file annual reports; but even INEC does not explain how it spends hundreds of billions of taxpayers’ monies.

Millions of Nigerians have lost touch with this democracy. That’s why they don’t come out for elections. But that’s not wise.

Rougher road to Osun
The Osun off-cycle governorship election is slated for August 15, 2026. The road is even rougher than Ekiti’s because it is an opposition state. President Tinubu’s former party, ACN snatched Osun State from the PDP between 2010 and 2018. After Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola, his successor, Gboyega Oyetola secured a narrow win to govern the state between 2018 and 2022.

The PDP returned to power in a highly contested election in 2022.

For 2026, the stakes are higher. Osun is said to be the original home of President Tnubu, before he adopted Lagos. As President and Commander-in-Chief, his loyalists have made it clear that winning Osun must be achieved come rain or shine. They have put machinery in place to ensure that victory is attained.

First, with the assistance of the judiciary, courtesy the Attorney General of the Federation, Lateef Fagbemi, Osun State’s councils’ FAAC allocation have been arrested. Different interpretations to conflicting court rulings have enabled the Federal Government to forcefully withhold the allocations. The origin of the dispute is an expired October 15, 2022 council elections.

Notwithstanding the merits of the argument, deliberately starving a state of councils’ allocation is the crudest form of realpolitik. It is a design to weaken the state and diffuse its authority to the councils through proxy funding. That is what is alleged by the state Assembly that is loyal to the governor; that some of the funds are illegally paid to controversial chairmen and councils that were ousted by the court, and who’s tenure have since lapsed.

It is not known yet, until July 7, 2026, whether Adeleke’s new abode, Accord Party, will be on the ballot, after Justice Lifu had ordered it deregistered. Adeleke had to abandon the PDP when the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Nyesom Wike, converted it to PDPAPC, on behalf of President Tinubu. The Accord Party is threatened.

More disturbing is the violence that has been unleashed by political militants in the state.

Last week, Governor Adeleke lamented the outbreak of political violence in Iragbiji, which recorded multiple fatalities. Two Accord Party members were reported killed in Boripe Local Government and additional deaths in Ikire and Ola Oluwa local governments. This is supposed to be President Tinubu’s state, already recording deaths before 2027.

The indications are that 2027, like Ekiti, might not be competitive. Just an election without contest!