By Donalds Obiekwe

Nigeria has in recent months been earning significantly from ongoing crude oil prices rally. The huge petrodollar inflows have boosted external reserves position to nearly $55 billion, providing the economy with stronger footings against global shocks. Tantita Security Services Nigeria Limited (TSSNL) operations have bolstered oil production, sustained peace and stability in the Niger Delta region, boosting accretion to external reserves. Nigeria’s external reserves are set to hit $55 billion mark in renewed rally linked to increased earnings from crude oil export due to continued peace and stability in the Niger Delta. The external reserves have crossed $54.8 billion on September 22, representing $20 million gap to hit $55 billion market. The position is curently providing the economy with stronger footings against global shocks.

The success of Tantita Security Services Nigeria Limited (TSSNL) operations remains a significant contributor to the surge in petrodollar inflows and sustained rise in external reserves. The Federal Government had appointed TSSNL to protect oil pipelines and other assets, ensuring peace and stability in the Niger Delta. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu appointed TSSNL led by High Chief, Dr Government Oweizide Ekpemupolo, alias Tompolo, due to trust and track-record of success in achieving peace and stability in the Niger Delta region.

The apointment was to enable TSSNL, through its security operations, support the national economy in getting the full benefits of oil resources. The TSSNL works in collaboration with other security outfits to achive its goals of securing oil assets and ensuring peace and stability in the Niger Delta region. Tantita’s operations have ensured the security of oil pipelines, achieved uninterrupted flow of petroleum resources, and ensuring that Nigeria migrated from a position of constant loss management to stability, planning, growth and development.

The TSSNL operations have transformed the oil and gas landscape and allowed Nigeria to expand oil production quota and significantly cut rampant oil theft. Its track record in mitigating risks associated with oil pipelines has positioned it as a reliable partner in preserving Nigeria’s economic backbone. As stakeholders advocate for the continued collaboration with TSSNL, the imperative of securing oil infrastructure remains at the forefront of efforts to ensure the nation’s sustainable development. In the development process of any society, certain assets contribute to the advancement of the society and its people. These assets ensure economic or monetary benefits for the people. They could be regarded as operating assets, non-operating assets or leased assets, among others.

Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) website shows the current reserves position is far higher that CBN’s projected $51.04 billion year-end target, and will cover over 13 months import for the economy. The reserves which also provide the CBN with the capacity to support the local currency and meet external obligations, have continued to rise steadily. Further analysis showed that the liquid portion of the external reserves stood at $54.08 billion.

The reserves started June at $49.80 billion and crossed the $50 billion mark by June 5, reaching $50.12 billion. On June 15, reserves had increased further to $50.81 billion before rising to the current position. The reserves stood at $51.9 billion on July 31, and continued. The sustained increase reflects stronger foreign exchange inflows and improved liquidity conditions in the country’s external sector. Oil prices have soared above $99.63 per barrel due to ongoing war between the US and Iran in the Gulf region.

There are also concerns over potential disruptions to key oil transit routes. For Nigeria, the current oil price is already impacting positively export proceeds as seen in the second quarter performance. The strong export performance, especially the N12.91 trillion (approximately N13 trillion) export earnings in the second quarter showed that Nigeria maintained a sizeable merchandise trade surplus during the quarter, with exports significantly exceeding imports.

The NBS data further shows that Asia emerged as Nigeria’s largest export market, receiving goods worth N8.72 trillion, or 32.29 per cent of total exports. Europe followed with N8.07 trillion, representing 29.87 per cent, while exports to Africa stood at N6.65 trillion, or 24.62 per cent. Exports to the Americas were valued at N3.11 trillion, representing 11.52 per cent, while Oceania accounted for N459.96 billion, or 1.70 per cent. Of Nigeria’s exports to Africa, ECOWAS member states accounted for N3.75 trillion, representing 56.39 per cent. India was Nigeria’s leading individual export destination during the quarter, receiving goods valued at N3.29 trillion, equivalent to 12.17 per cent of total exports.

With Brent crude trading above $99.63 per barrel—well above Nigeria’s 2026 federal budget benchmark of $64.85—the current rally in global oil prices is expected to strengthen the country’s fiscal revenues, foreign exchange reserves, and exchange rate stability. Analysts say that if tensions continue to escalate into a full-scale conflict disrupting the Strait of Hormuz—a vital route that carries roughly 20 per cent of global oil supply—Brent prices could rise far beyond $100 per barrel.

“Higher oil prices typically strengthen Nigeria’s current account balance, improve foreign exchange liquidity and export proceeds,” the Chief Executive Officer, Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf, stated in a recent policy brief titled ‘Implications of the Iran–U.S.–Israel Conflict on the Nigerian Economy’. “This could reduce short-term pressure on the naira and reinforce investor confidence,” Yusuf, a renowned economist, further explained. For Nigeria, such a surge in crude prices would sustain ongoing stronger export earnings and improve external balances. Sustaining surge in export proceeds gains would require sustaining the oil assets protection project by Tantita Security Services Nigeria Ltd (TSSNL).

Already, the battle against oil theft requires not only robust security measures. It extends to assigning criritcal surveillance roles to institutiuons with tested expertise and commitment to taming the scourge. Tantita recently contracted a hi- tech security company, Textron Systems, to deliver three uncrewed aircraft that would enhance the company’s capacity to carry out its surveillance operations on Nigeria’s oil. The contract agreement, which was signed and sealed late last year, mandates Textron Systems, USA, to deliver three Aerosonde Mk. 4.7 vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL) uncrewed aircraft systems (UAS) to the surveillance company.

The systems will be delivered in a fully ITAR-Free configuration designed for ease of export to international customers. These aircraft will significantly enhance security operations for the protection of Nigeria’s vital oil and gas infrastructure.

The sale also includes options for training and additional aircraft to support planned capacity expansion, building on a previous Foreign Military Sale (FMS) contract to the country. The Aerosonde Mk. 4.7 VTOL UAS offers a runway-independent configuration powered by Hybrid Quadrotor technology, enabling vertical takeoff and landing. Its proven performance and benchmark-setting reliability make it an adaptable solution for security operations across Nigeria’s high-risk sectors. “The Aerosonde Mk. 4.7 VTOL UAS is a mature, highly reliable, and industry-proven autonomous solution that will provide Tantita Security Services with transformational capability to execute their security operations,” said David Phillips, Senior Vice President, Air, Land and Sea Systems. “The Aerosonde system’s demonstrated performance and benchmark-setting reliability will enable the Tantita team to expand its capabilities to protect the oil and gas infrastructure essential to Nigerian security and prosperity.”

The system has conducted operations across the globe and currently operates on over 10 U.S. Navy ships.

It is equipped for multiple payload configurations with both VTOL and fixed-wing options. IMF speaks on oil earnings The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted significant recovery in Nigeria’s Balance of Payment (BoP) following ongoing surge in crude oil prices.

In an interview transcript, the Director of the Communications Department at the IMF, Ms Julie Kozack said oil exporters may witness improvement in balance of payments because of higher oil prices. “For countries that are energy importers, they may face pressures on their balance of payments. For countries that are oil exporters, their balance of payments may improve because of higher prices. So, we may see a differential effect there. Changes to global financial conditions are likely to affect all countries”.

Nigeria earns over 90 per cent of its forex from crude oil exports, and with Brent Crude trading above $80, Nigeria’s earnings through crude oil export is bound to rise. Murban crude also hit $85 and sped past it, reflecting the continued freeze of most tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz over Middle East crisis. According to Kozack, the oil prices rally has impacted equity markets, and led to surge in bond spreads.

“We have engaged with finance ministers and Central Bank governors in many countries and regions. We’ve also engaged with regional institutions to discuss and share perspectives on the implications of the conflict and again, how the Fund can best provide support,” she explained. Kozack further said that countries were most interested in IMF assessment on the global economy, regional economies, and their individual countries.

“Our Managing Director has said recently that in an uncertain world, we do see more countries often turning to the Fund for support. We stand ready to provide that support as needed. Right now, we have not received any formal requests for emergency financing. But of course, as I said, as the situation evolves, as countries reassess their financing needs and their policy options, we stand ready to support them using all of the tools that are available to us,” she said. In a published report, President General, Niger Delta Progressive Alliance, Nse Victor Udoh, said pipeline protection enabled national institutions to progress from reactive crisis management to strategic foresight, from temporary containment to durable systems-building, and from uncertainty-driven decisions to calculated national ambition.

“It is important to clarify the role of pipeline surveillance within the wider energy landscape. Energy security encompasses the full value chain, from exploration and production to refining, distribution, pricing policy, and subsidy frameworks. Pipeline surveillance does not manage these domains,” he said.

“Its mandate is precise: safeguarding critical infrastructure that transports petroleum resources. Yet this single function has proven foundational. Without secure transportation channels, production targets falter, refining plans collapse, exports decline, and fiscal projections become unreliable,” he added. He further wrote: “Asset protection, in this context, is not a supporting activity. It is a precondition for economic order. In effect, the pipeline is the hinge on which the entire petroleum value chain turns. When that hinge is weak, every other link in the chain carries strain. When it is secure, the entire system gains coherence.” The immediate impact has been operational. Sustained monitoring and rapid response systems have sharply reduced pipeline breaches and illegal tapping.

Receipt rates have climbed toward full recovery, with national output rising to levels not seen in recent memory. This redirection has restored Nigeria’s credibility in international oil markets, allowing Nigeria to reclaim market share lost to Angola and Libya.

“Economic stability follows predictability. When crude flows are secure, refineries can plan feedstock intake with assurance. Export commitments can be met without fear of sudden shortfalls. Gas-to-power projects can operate without recurrent shutdown risks. Investors can assess Nigeria’s petroleum sector with clearer risk profiles. Surveillance therefore does more than stop theft. It reintroduces reliability into national energy planning. And reliability is the bedrock upon which sustainable economic growth is built,” he stated.

Obiekwe, an industrialist lives in Lagos.