It is scarcely surprising that the second round of direct peace talks between Russia and Ukraine ended penultimate week without a breakthrough in the peace agreement. The parties only agreed to a deal to swap more prisoners of war and return the bodies of 12,000 soldiers! While it is positive that the combatants are still talking at the table, to give a faint hope of a diplomatic solution on the horizon, to what end are the talks without genuine actions to end bombings and killings? Why is the United States, Russia and allies all playing games with the desired peace goal?
After the failed 30-day ceasefire without a gun or artillery silence, the world could see that Putin’s Russia and the entire geopolitics are far from committed to a lasting peace. At the last peace talks in Istanbul, Turkey, Ukrainian negotiators said Russia again rejected an “unconditional ceasefire”– a key demand by Kyiv and its allies in Europe and the U.S. – but the two committed to return the bodies of 12,000 soldiers.The Russian team said it had proposed a two or three-day truce “in certain areas” of the vast front line, but gave no further details. Reports have it that expectations were low even before the talks started, with both sides remaining deeply divided on how to end a war that has been raging since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Zelensky accused Moscow of “doing everything it can to ensure the next possible meeting is fruitless”.
While the so-called peace meetings are ongoing, the crisis continues to escalate at both ends with the recent addition of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to the Kremlin’s “wanted list”.The list is an online database of those the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs accuses of being criminals. Russia reportedly said the Ukrainian leader was wanted “under an article of the criminal code” but did not provide further details.Moscow has sought to assassinate the Ukrainian president since the beginning of its full-scale invasion of the country in February 2022, when Russian President Vladimir Putin called on the Ukrainian army to overthrow Zelenskyy.In its statement, the Ukrainian ministry said that Moscow is “at a loss for what else to invent to garner attention.” It also stressed that “unlike the worthless Russian announcements, the International Criminal Court’s warrant for the arrest of Russian dictator Vladimir Putin on war crimes charges is real and enforceable in 123 countries.”
Apparently, it is easier to wage war than to nurture peace in modern time. The empathy and motivation missing at the peace tables are finding great expression in aggression at the battlefield with more sophisticated weapons freely deployed on both sides. The Ukrainian recent launch of “Operation Spider’s Web”estimated to have resulted in $7billion (£5.2billion) of damage has proven that Ukrainian strength might have been underestimated. Speaking to the media on Wednesday after handing out medals to SBU officers involved in the operation, President, Zelensky, repeated the claim that 41 aircraft had been damaged or destroyed. “Half of them cannot be restored,” he said, “and some will take years to repair, if they can be restored at all.” Had a ceasefire been in place, he added, Operation Spider’s Web would not have happened.
The Operation came some days after Russia killed 13 in Ukraine with 367 drones and missiles, warranting U.S. president’s declaration that“something has happened” to Putin. “He has gone absolutely crazy…needlessly killing a lot of people,” Trump said. Moscow, which currently controls about 20 per cent of Ukrainian territory, including the southern Crimea peninsula it annexed in 2014, has promised to retaliate for Operation Spider’s Web. Speaking after a phone call with the Russian president, the U.S. president said: “President Putin did say, and very strongly, that he will have to respond to the recent attack on the airfields.” Trump warned in a social media post that the phone call, which lasted more than an hour, would not “lead to immediate peace” between Russia and Ukraine.
It must be clearer to all that the parties, or one of them, are having a filled day and far from willing to entertain peace.Already, Russia has continued to make billions from fossil fuel exports to the West, data shows, helping to finance its full-scale invasion of Ukraine – now in its fourth year.Since the start of that invasion in February 2022, Russia has made more than three times as much money by exporting hydrocarbons as Ukraine has received in aid allocated by its allies.Data analysis shows that Ukraine’s Western allies have paid Russia more for its hydrocarbons than they have given Ukraine in aid. Oil and gas account for almost a third of Russia’s state revenue and more than 60 per cent of its exports.In the wake of the February 2022 invasion, Ukraine’s allies-imposed sanctions on Russian hydrocarbons.Despite this, by 29 May, Russia had made more than €883billion ($973billion; £740billion) in revenue from fossil fuel exports since the start of the full-scale invasion, including €228 billion from the sanctioning countries, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA).The lion’s share of that amount, €209 billion, came from EU member states.EU states continued importing pipeline gas directly from Russia until Ukraine cut the transit in January 2025, and Russian crude oil is still piped to Hungary and Slovakia.
Beyond empty peace talks, the Russian State, Ukraine and their allies must all commit to terms of peace and demonstrate sincerity in actions. Russia has called for a pause in foreign aid to Ukraine as a condition for a peace agreement. Again, what is the U.S. and NATO’s plan towards this? That demand hits at the foundation of the war. Several countries are getting tired of the East-West conflict and having to take sides in the senseless conflict. The world could be more tolerable for all without war or the more hypocritical actions of state actors across the board.
By and large, the devastating war needs a political solution, not more fruitless negotiations, confrontations or militarisation of Ukraine. And to turn the tide, the United Nations, despite its disarray, should rally diplomats and Good Offices to negotiate an armistice. Regrettably, errant Russia must be brought back to the fold, granted a fair hearing and its agreements with NATO kept in line with the general principle of pacta sunt servanda. Lastly, all parties should bear the cost of rebuilding post-war Ukraine.