Nigeria’s dalliance with multiparty democracy predates the country’s Independence on October 1, 1960. The aftermath of the enforced, and therefore undemocratic amalgamation of diverse ethnic nationalities of the Northern and Southern Protectorates by British colonialists, to form present-day Nigeria on January 1 1914, to advance their economic interests, heralded multiparty political democracy in the country.
Noteworthy, were pioneer political parties like the Nigerian National Democratic Party (NNDP), established by the firebrand nationalist Herbert Samuel Macaulay a.k.a. “Wizard of Kirsten Hall” (1864-1946). The NNDP commanded a huge following in Lagos and, held sway on the Legislative Council and Lagos Town Council, for almost two decades through 1922 and 1938. An equally dynamic political force of that era was the National Youth Movement, established c.1934 by Professor Eyo Ita, Messrs Stanley Orogun and Ernest Ikoli. Key members included Dr Kofo Abayomi, Messrs Nnamdi Azikiwe, Obafemi Awolowo, Samuel Akintola, Sam Shonibare, H.O. Davies et al. The core beliefs of these nationalist parties invoked political emancipation, self-determination, and the socio-economic development of Africans.
Over time however, irreconcilable schisms within these structures led to fragmentation, and a radical metamorphosis crystallised in the formation of political parties along ethnic lines. Thus, the National Council of Nigeria and Cameroon (NCNC), founded in 1944 and led by Dr Nnamdi Azikiwe “Zik of Africa”, with robust Pan-Africanist foundations, dominated the affairs of Eastern Nigeria. The Action Group, founded in 1951 by Chief Obafemi Awolowo
“Awo”and prominent members including then Ooni of Ife, Sir Adesoji Aderemi, Messrs Bode Thomas, Adekunle Ajasin, Anthony Enahoro, S.T. Oredein, Bola Ige amongst others, was the foremost political party in Western Nigeria, whilst the Northern People’s Congress (NPC) founded in 1944 by Sir Ahmadu Bello, with neo-messianic followership in Northern Nigeria, was the overriding political force.
Although there were other political parties, however, these three were most significant within their spheres of influence. This multiparty democratic model underpinned the vehemently contested 1959 Nigerian General Elections, which ushered in Nigeria’s Independence, adopting the Westminster parliamentary system.
Nevertheless, growing distrust and suspicion amongst the Nigeria’s disparate ethnic nationalities, serious wrangling within political parties like the Action Group, political insensitivity, marginalisation, fears of domination by minorities, together, conspired to impede serious attempts at cohesion and nation-building. The result was the collapse of the First Republic government led by the NPC/NCNC coalition government of Dr Nnamdi Azikiwe and Sir Tafawa Balewa, barely six years later, following the ghastly military coup d’etat of January15, 1996, which brought in General Johnson Aguiyi Ironsi a.k.a
“Ironside”. And, the gory counter-coup of July 29, 1966 (“July Re-match”), which ushered in General Yakubu Gowon. Those underlying ethnic fissures continued and the country, yet again, experienced the bloody Nigerian/Biafra Civil War 1967/1970 which claimed over a million Biafran lives and displaced many more.
The country’s intermittent experimentation with maximalist military dictatorships between 1966 and 1999 ended with the upheaval which followed the annulment, by the General Babangida regime (1985-1993), of the country’s freest and fairest multiparty democratic elections on June 12, 1993 in the (Third Republic); and the death on July 7 1998, in custody, of the presumed winner Bashorun Moshood Abiola, the assassination of his wife, Kudirat Abiola, Pa Alfred Rewane, Ken Saro-Wiwa and eight Ogoni activists, and that of several activists – traversing the totalitarian regime of General Sani Abacha (1993-1998).
General Abdulsalami Abubakar was the Head of State through June 9, 1998 and May 29, 1999 and although he voluntarily handed over power to a civilian government headed by Rtd General Olusegun Obasanjo, the circumstances of Abiola’s passing barely a month after Abubakar’s assumption of office remains a subject of intense speculation, whilst providentialism establishes “que sera sera”
Nonetheless, 32 years after leaving office, Babangida confirmed on February 20, 2025, at his autobiographical launch, “A Journey in Service”, that Abiola won the 1993 elections, and expressed regret for the annulment and affirmed that “undoubtedly credible, free and fair elections were held on June12, 1993…that accident of history is most regrettable. The nation is entitled to expect my expression of regret” Hitherto, the military Buhari/Idiagbon dictatorship toppled the U.S.-modelled multi-democratic party based federal administration headed by Shehu Shagari (1979-1983) in the Second Republic.
The Fourth Republic (1999 to present), under multi-party democratic principles, has not necessarily ushered in realistic deliverables for the majority of Nigerians – applying the evaluative criteria of impactful and qualitative security, employment, universal healthcare, affordable accommodation. The evidence is not far-fetched. The Global Terrorism Index 2025, ranks Nigeria, ditto Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, Mali, Somalia, Syria, and Pakistan amongst the top 10 countries most adversely impacted by terrorism.
Between 2011 and 2023, Boko Haram (BH) was responsible for thousands of deaths in Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad, and Niger. Yet, Nigeria is the country most affected by BH terrorist onslaught. In Borno State alone, BH has caused over 38,000 deaths whilst BH and ISWAP actions contributed to the internal displacement of an estimated two million people in Adamawa, Borno, and Yobe states, plus, the external displacement of over 328,000 Nigerian refugees to neighbouring countries, especially Cameroon, Chad, and Niger.
The country’s economic performance has yielded variable results. The IMF observed that Nigerian witnessed real GDP growth of 2.9 per cent in 2023. Inflation reached a 28-year high of 28.9 per cent in December 2023, driven mostly by rising energy prices, after the removal (and later partial reinstatement) of a fuel subsidy, and rising food costs, with food inflation reaching 33.9 per cent in December 2023. The spike in the costs of wheat, rice, and other staple cereals, as well as the increased cost of fertilizer, heightened food security concerns. Nigeria’s poverty levels remain challenging. The World Bank asserts that the rate of poverty grew from 44 per cent of the population in 2021 to 46 per cent in 2023, equating to 104 million people – the world’s second-largest poor population after India.
Nigeria’s underdeveloped power sector is a bottleneck to broad-based economic development and forces businesses to generate a significant portion of their own electricity. Many of these businesses rely on generators powered by more expensive diesel to run their operations, further contributing to rising prices. Reform of Nigeria’s power sector is ongoing, but investor confidence continues to be weakened by regulatory uncertainty, deficient infrastructure, government subsidies, and limited domestic natural gas supply.
Through 2012 and 2022, the government’s expenditure on education dipped from 0.55 per cent to 0.35, according to UNSECO statistics, imperilling investment in human capital, skills acquisition and employment.
Inevitably, the emerging question given its constitutional significance, is whether, given the antecedents of unproven political models, Nigeria ought to consider a one-party democratic model? Nigeria’s political experiment post-Amalgamation, has witnessed an admixture of multi-party democracy, military rule, the parliamentary system of government, and currently the U.S.-styled presidential system of government – yet major structural problems linger.
Is it simply a question of political models? Does the challenge implicate a leadership vacuum? The absence of a core national development philosophy around which citizens can unite? Is corruption the problem? These are all valid questions negating a single answer. Indeed, man is an imperfect entity, and the logic therein imposes the truism that anything created by man is, perforce, imperfect. The same holds true for all political models. However, torpidity is not a plan hence the examination of the one-party democratic model.
Ostensibly, the phrase “one-party democratic model” is a contradiction in terms. How on earth can a political model be democratic if the fundamental structure is predicated on a singular political party? The rivalling poser, is what the Dickens is democracy anyway? Afterall, nowhere in the world is the word true to its Lincolnian proposition of the government of the people, by people, and for people. Which people? Super-connected elites? The middle class? Working class folks? Those not employed, educated, trained or skilled (N.E.E.T.S.)? Members of an incumbent political party?
With the exception of Israel, democracy is not practised in any one of the Middle Eastern countries like Brunei, Oman, Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia and they get on fine, not imperfectly! As at April 2025, the IMF established that GDP per capita in Oman was $18,970. Qatar $71, 650, United Arab Emirates, $49,500 and Saudi Arabia, $30, 001. Nigeria’s per capita GDP for the same period was $806! In short, Qatar’s GDP per capita was 88 times that of Nigeria, whilst the UAE was 61 times Nigeria’s. Of course, the demographics of these countries impacts these metrics. Nigeria’s population is approximately 228 million, whilst that of the average population of the select Arab countries is 12.8 million.
However, upon the criterion of evaluation of political models, there is absolutely no correlation between democracy, of any kind, and economic output. Besides, from a geopolitical standpoint, the United States alone, is close to securing investments exceeding $1 trillion with these countries according to Foreign Policy. Evidently therefore, the political configuration in those sovereign states, is of absolutely zero practical consequence to the world’s pre-eminent power, the United States.
The same principle applies to China’s dynamic relationship with the United States, and G7 countries. China/USA trade volumes were $668 billion in 2024 or 4.8 trillion yuan in 2024; whilst China’s trade volume with the EU in the same period exceeded € 700 billion. China operates a one-party model where the Communist Party of China (CPC) dominates political affairs, anchored on seven core principles:
1.) Comprehensive national security across all domains. 2.) People-centred approach which prioritises the interests and well-being of Chinese citizens. 3.) Economic development and poverty reduction 4.) National rejuvenation – catalysing the Chinese nation and restoring global influence. 5.) Social stability – maintaining societal harmony, law and order. 6.) Global influence and governance. 7.) Ecological civilisation and sustainable development. Incidentally, when the United States unilaterally imposed global tariffs and selectively applied 145 per cent tariffs against China, the latter stoutly retaliated, prompting the economic giants into a global trade war, adversely affecting international supply chains, risking massive inflation and job losses. China was the only country in the world which stood up to the US on this score. Reason has since prevailed with a significant de-escalation announced by both countries on May 12, 2025.
The fundamental point is that given competing national interests, 21st Century geopolitics cares little about what political model a country adopts. The focus is realpolitik. This proposition is evident in the ECOWAS breakaway countries of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, which have since recalibrated their relationships with the international community and embarked upon their own deterministic pathways. These include forging ahead to confront major jihadist threats linked to Al Qaeda and Islamic State, and creating the Alliance of Sahel States.
Ultimately, it is for the Nigerian people alone, via constitutional mechanics, to decide whether a Chinese-style one party state or a multiparty political model is the way forward to enduringly reap the dividends of good governance, bolstered by people-centred leadership, which catalyses well-being and sustainable economic development, whilst robustly embedding law and order.
Ojumu is the Principal Partner at Balliol Myers LP, a firm of legal practitioners and strategy consultants in Lagos, Nigeria, author of The Dynamic Intersections of Economics, Foreign Relations, Jurisprudence and National Development (2023).
