Remembering October 7 (2)

Continued from yesterday

In the last few months, Israel has intensified its policy of ‘targeted assassination’ against its enemies. The most prominent were Hamas leader, Ismail Haniyeh, Hezbollah commander, Ibrahim Aqil and the founder and spiritual leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasralla. Once again, Iran vowed a harsh response against Israel. Late in the afternoon of Tuesday, October 1st, the U.S. issued a warning of imminent Iranian attack on Israel. Several hours later, the night sky was lit up by hundreds of ballistic missiles fired into Israel by Iran. Some of the missiles were so sophisticated they could cover the 1000 mile distance between Teheran and Tel Aviv in less than 15 minutes.

With U.S. assistance, Israel was able to shoot down most of the missiles, but some managed to penetrate Israeli defenses and inflict damages. Israel immediately declared it would return the attack. And in the last few days, the world is holding its breath in anticipation of what Israel’s response would be.

Back in April, when Israel was attacked by Iran for the first time, massive international pressure was mounted on Israel to show restraint. And it did. This time the story will be different. Israel will retaliate and Israel will hit hard. There are four or five areas of attack open to Israel. One is to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities, but the U.S. is strongly opposed to that.

President Biden was specific on that point. The second target would be Iran’s oil fields, but again president Biden has advised against that. The third is Iran’s conventional military installations including the IRGC. The fourth is Iran’s industrial base, and lastly, Israel may decide to go for regime change by attempting to take out the political leaders of Iran.

Whatever Israel does in the days ahead, the Middle East is facing a conflagration. Iran has fought Israel over the years through proxies and third parties and Israel had been on tenther hooks to engage Iran directly. Israel believes that the threat posed by Iran would never be resolved diplomatically, and that someday, there will be a reckoning. That day may have come with Iran coming out openly to strike Israel.

It is no longer a question of whether Israel will confront Iran. The question is when? And to what degree? For now, it will be difficult to correctly project what the outcome will be, but the devastation on all sides will be enormous. Sure, America will stand with Israel, fully and completely, even at the risk of being sucked into a war it had always wanted to avoid, and also with a presidential election barely weeks away.

America’s allies, particularly the UK, France and Germany will also get involved. China and Russia will issue statements and condemnations here and there, but will not go beyond rhetorics. Russia would have been willing to lend logistics to the ‘axis of resistance’ but Russia is seriously bogged down in its own adventure.

Piong yang will seize the opportunity to fire more missiles into the sea and keep it’s neighbors awake through the nights. The Arab states have lost the appetite for war with Israel. Many of their political leaders are willing to make peace with Israel and tap into the developmental template which Ben Gurion offered as far back as 1948. Some of these Arab countries will not be unhappy to see Iran humbled. Iran is sustaining the Arab – Israeli conflict through the use of non-state actors. And this is what makes it imperative to curtail Iran’s meddlesomeness.

In conclusion, my expressly held opinion is that this war is long over due. It is time for Iran and Israel to settle scores. Without the war, the Middle East will continue to simmer and rumble. If I were in position to advise Israel, I would say “go for those nuclear facilities.” I have no doubt that the Middle East and the rest of the world will be safer if Iran’s fingers are pushed farther away from the nuclear buttons.

But make no mistake, the war will be costly. To both sides. Israel will pay a huge prize. It is a war Israel will not win but Israel will not be defeated either. Israel will inflict pains and Israel will endure severe pains. Israel will be fighting on several fronts – Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis in Yemen, Al Qaida remnants in Syria and Iraq. The other countries of the Middle East will make robust statements and strident calls for restraint, while trying to hide the smirks on their faces. Some will condemn Israel, send their diplomats on shuttles from one capital to the other, but none will get involved.

The United Nations will hew and haw in its legendary impotence, and scurry around with humanitarian aid.  Eventually, the furies will subside. The United States is a superpower and the United States has the capacity to impose its will. But before they get to that juncture, some things will have to give. That is the way of the world.

When Americans remember 9/11, they tremble. When Israelis remember October 7, they shudder. That emotional trauma will not go away. On October 7, 2023, more Israeli citizens were slaughtered than at any other time since the 2nd World War. On October 7, the guardians of Israel failed – the political leaders, the security forces and the intelligence agencies.

It was a huge failure and there will be consequences. When all the furies are spent and rivers of blood spilt and the guns finally fell silent, the reckoning will commence. Heads will roll and this will include the (political) head of Benjamin Netanyahu. Netanyahu rode to power on the carcass of the peace process and his sabotage of Oslo was not a thought out programme designed to bring peace and security to Israel.

It was a shortcut to keeping himself in power as he panders to the votes of the far right. The two-state solution which Yizkat Rabin and Yasser Arafat signed in 1993 would have ushered in a new dawn for the Middle East. The prevailing darkness may be long and bloody, but for those who have the capacity to look ahead, that dawn will come.

The radicals and extremists are having their say, but someday, and that day may not be long, the moderates and the progressives will have their way. Oslo will be resurrected and the land that gave the world its two greatest religions, will begin to reconstruct the road to peace. But for the moment, the days and months ahead will be very interesting.
‘For the Middle East to know peace, Israel must take this war to Iran’s doorsteps.’
Concluded.
Dr. Egbo is a Lecturer/Resource Person in NILDS, Abuja. He can be reached via: 08037910012.