Unpredictable U.S. 2016 elections

I am in Washington DC touted often as the capital of the free world, seat of the most powerful government in the world etc. The USA has been panhandling the 2016 Presidential election, as serious political and constitutional activity, sometime as surreal farce. The 2016 U.S. general elections are unique in many ways but most pronounced is the emergence of an unusual combination: the first female candidate and an anti establishment rogue candidate, not supported by his party’s grandees, harking back to the Republican far right heritage.

There is some logic to the emergence of a female presidential candidate. In the racial categories of the USA societal formations, positions of power are usually dominated by white males, but whenever civil rights pressure compels a change it moves first to the African American and then usually a woman.

The USA has over the years been touted as the bedrock and world protector of democracy and democratic constitutionalism. Domestically, its two main camps, Democrats and Republicans, the left and right of political life have dominated contests for power yielding no breathing space to third parties.

In this 2016 contest for occupying the slave built White House down the road from where I am, the Democrats have delivered Hilary Clinton former First Lady and FLOTUS, in her own write former U.S. Secretary of State. The Republicans against the best efforts of its machine, and to the leadership, a nightmare could only surprise themselves by allowing a rogue candidate to wrestle the party establishment to the ground and seize the race.

So any guess for trupence, what emerged as the Republican candidate and flag bearer for the 2016 presidential elections? Donald Trump a business tycoon billionaire, big time hustler some say, property developer whose towers hug the Manhattan skyline, punter in casinos, higher education etc whose chant and mantra is to make America great again.

As at Monday, November 7, he has continued to push on all fronts harrying the Democrats with guerrilla tactics especially in the so called battleground states leaving the Clinton camp and majority of high brow Americans biting their nails in what is expected to be a very close race. The 2016 general election has become an unpredictable race.

The USA from inception has been a study in revolt, first against the British crown, the threat of secession, a flag still carried by Texas, and the many rights to individual freedom entrenched in the U.S. constitution.

The New York Times yesterday carried the story of a militia armed to the teeth ready to defend Trump and the kind of America they believe only Trump can preserve.

This is but one of the third world/banana republic aspect of the greatest democracy in the world. There is the war readiness of the Georgia Security Force III militia…. “Donald Trump would fit right in with our little group. He wants America the way we want it back like it used to be” there was a report of a pro Trump group planning to stone out African Americans with marijuana and prevent them from voting. An African American church was torched in North Carolina by people feared to be racist and pro Trump.  Added to this, the revolt of the Federal Bureau of Investigation from within the executive arm of government. Its head, chief executive and President deep with Clinton while the carpet was yanked from under his feet, and unknown consequences for the race.

Up till the FBI announced its confirmation that it planned no criminal charges would be filed against Mrs Hilary Clinton, former U.S. Secretary of a State, and Uncle Sam’s tax claim hanging over Trump’s head, the unthinkable was the possibility of a major constitutional crisis if the two candidates became unelectable as a result of their criminal liability. The FBI guerilla assault on Clinton has cleared and no more is heard of Trump’s unpaid taxes…clearing the way for the electorate to decide.

The electorate remains divided as so called Appalachians, white factory floor industrial manpower, the Ku Klux Klan and other red and rough necks pile into the Trump corner making tomorrow’s vote as unpredictable as they get. Does the lower income constitute a majority or not? Were they to, and were this majority to plunk Trump into securing a simple majority come tomorrow, Trump would most likely head for the Supreme Court to select a U.S. president again regardless of the electoral college where as I write he does not hold the prescribed victory number, 300. The Republican candidate himself if you can so describe a man from whom the party high hierarchy has distanced itself, frightened the world with many of his promises to create a laager convinced the election would be rigged ( thought that was ours) against him. He floated three main policy frights:

. A self interest foreign policy that would most likely pit the USA against its NAFTA neighbours, possibly China in a Theucydidean trap, as the latter challenges for world economic dominance and immigration the root of American human resource prowess….walls against Mexico bring our jobs back, block Muslims and so on.

. A racist domestic policy which would erode whatever is left of the gains of the 1965 civil rights legislation.

. a character threat as Donald Trump tears up all conventions of American public life, deploys narcissism as virtue making a few commentators concerned for the safety of the world with the nuclear button within the reach of a man whose impulsive erratic behaviour during the campaigns astounded many.

Third world countries are yet to begin serious understanding of the medium to long term implications of UK Brexit on world peace and economic activity. Nigeria, for example, is busy grappling with internal insecurity and a major single factor economic downturn, President Buhari and his economic team must now add a possible Trump presidency to their mix of major problems.

Western Europeans and North America (WENA) have given the rest of the world over half a century of relative peace, and bounteous improvements to the quality of human life. To many, the failure of the European Union experiment which Brexit announced and portends is yet to reveal its full impact but many believe it would be deleterious and could be dangerous to both peace and trade. This can’t be a good time to introduce into the community of world nations an unpredictable inward looking U.S. President which tomorrow’s unpredictable general election could deliver with Trump.  A few argue though that his reported closeness to Russia’s Putin could and some argue would reduce the tendencies of a return to the Cold War at a time NATO is building its military muscles on its Eastern European borders.

Greater tragedy for African states especially Nigeria that must wade through a fierce and ferocious war against corruption and could do with America’s support and comfort if it is not only to win this war but retrace its way to socio economic growth and development.

Tomorrow it is all of us and America must elect another president; not only for all Americans but for all the free and peaceful people of the world.

• Ambassador Otunla lives in Washington D C.